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Forecasting Oasis’s Stock Price Using Its Implied Volatility

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Jun. 19 2018, Updated 3:25 p.m. ET

Implied volatility

Oasis Petroleum (OAS) stock’s implied volatility is ~45%, ~3% lower than its 15-day average of ~46.3%. In comparison, peers Hess (HES) and Concho Resources (CXO) have lower implied volatility, of ~30.5% and ~33.1%, respectively, and Whiting Petroleum (WLL) stock has higher implied volatility, of ~54%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF’s (XLE) implied volatility is ~17.4%.

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Oasis Petroleum: Stock price forecast

Assuming a normal price distribution, standard deviation of one, and probability of 68.2%, based on Oasis’s implied volatility of ~45%, we could expect the stock to close between $11.26 and $12.76 up until June 22. Peers’ price forecasts are as follows:

  • Hess: $59.00–$64.20
  • Concho Resources: $122.72–$134.52
  • Whiting Petroleum: $44.33–$51.49

Next, we’ll discuss analysts’ price targets for Oasis Petroleum for the next 12 months.

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