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Estimating CHK’s Stock Range Forecast Using Implied Volatility

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Implied volatility in CHK

The current implied volatility for Chesapeake Energy stock (CHK) is ~64%, 6.2% lower than its 15-day average of 68%. 

Meanwhile, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has an implied volatility of ~17.4%, 4.8% lower than its 15-day average of ~18.3%.

Stock price forecast for CHK

Assuming a normal distribution of stock prices and a standard deviation of one, based on Chesapeake Energy’s implied volatility of ~64%, we can estimate that the stock could close anywhere between $4.39 and $5.23 in the week ending on June 15. Chesapeake Energy stock should stay within this range ~68% of the time.

In comparison, peer Noble Energy (NBL) has a stock price range of $32.59–$35.53 for the week ending on June 15 based on its implied volatility of 31.3%. In the same period, EQT Corporation (EQT) has a stock price range of $50.78–$55.46 based on its implied volatility of 31.8%. Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) has a stock price range of $22.58–$24.50 based on its implied volatility of 29.3% for the week ending on June 15.

Next, we’ll take a look at what analysts recommend for Chesapeake Energy stock.

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