What’s Driving Panera’s Stock Price in 2017?



Stock performance

American fast casual restaurant chain Panera Bread (PNRA) is all set to announce its 1Q17 earnings after the market closes on April 25, 2017.

Since the announcement of 4Q16 results on February 7, 2017, Panera’s stock price has risen 47.1%. Apart from better-than-expected 4Q16 earnings and an optimistic 2017 outlook, Panera’s stock rose on JAB Holdings’ offer to buy the company for $7.5 billion. JAB Holdings has offered to pay $315 per share, which represents a 30% premium over the company’s 30-day trading average as of March 31, 2017, the last trading day before the rumor of Panera’s acquisition surfaced. Analysts are expecting the deal, which is subject to shareholders’ approval, to close in 3Q17.

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Year-to-date performance

2017 has been a good year for Panera. Since the beginning of 2017, the stock has risen 53.7%. During the same period, its peers Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Shake Shack (SHAK) have returned 24.2% and -8.3%, respectively.

In comparison, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) have returned 4.6% and 7.4%, respectively.

Series overview

With Panera’s 1Q17 earnings just around the corner, we’ll look at what analysts are expecting from Panera’s 1Q17 revenue, EBIT (earnings before interest and tax), and EPS (earnings per share). Then we’ll look at the company’s valuation multiple and expected stock price over the next 12 months.

Let’s start the series by looking at Panera’s 1Q17 revenue estimates.


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