South32 Limited

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  • uploads///part  premiums
    Basic Materials

    How Rising Physical Premiums Could Impact Aluminum Producers

    US aluminum premiums were weak in July. However, we’ve seen an increase in premiums since then. Premiums in Europe have also risen slightly.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
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    Basic Materials

    Aluminum Prices Ease from 2017 Highs, Despite Chinese Curtailments

    Aluminum was among the best-performing base metals in the first half of 2017. The lightweight metal outperformed copper in 1H17 by a decent margin.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
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    Basic Materials

    Why Alcoa’s in the Clouds, while China Aims for Blue Skies

    Alcoa (AA), the leading US-based aluminum producer, has gained 47.8% in 2017, based on November 30 closing prices.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  norsk
    Basic Materials

    Norsk Hydro: Analysts’ Ratings amid Higher Aluminum Prices

    Norsk Hydro (NHY) released its 3Q17 earnings on October 25. The company reported revenues of 22.8 billion Norwegian krone (~$2.8 billion) in 3Q17.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
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    Basic Materials

    Aluminum Producers’ Valuation: What It Tells Investors

    Analysts seem to be factoring lower-than-current aluminum prices next year when it comes to aluminum producers’ 2018 revenue estimates.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  cenx
    Basic Materials

    How Wall Street Sees Century Aluminum after a 2Q17 Earnings Miss

    Century Aluminum (CENX) released its 2Q17 financial results on August 2 after the markets closed. The company reported revenues of $2.86 billion in 2Q17.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
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    Miscellaneous

    2Q17 Earnings Preview: Do Analysts Find Value in Alcoa?

    Previously in this series, we’ve looked at Alcoa’s (AA) 2Q17 earnings estimates. In this article, we’ll see how leading brokerages are rating Alcoa stock ahead of its 2Q17 earnings release.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  china demand
    Miscellaneous

    Alcoa: What the Chinese Aluminum Industry’s Outlook Implies

    Developments in the Chinese aluminum industry tend to impact the global aluminum industry. Chinese aluminum exports interest companies like Alcoa (AA).

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
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    Miscellaneous

    Is Rising Chinese Aluminum Supply a Risk for Alcoa?

    China’s aluminum demand is expected to be strong this year. Alcoa raised its 2017 global aluminum demand forecast to 4.5%–5.0% from its previous guidance.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  cenx
    Earnings Report

    What Investors Should Know about Century Aluminum’s 1Q17 Results

    Century Aluminum (CENX) was among the best-performing aluminum stocks (NHYDY) (ACH) (SOUHY) last year with gains of 94%.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
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    Earnings Report

    Alcoa Maintains 2017 Guidance, Ups Demand Forecast

    Alcoa (AA) expects to generate adjusted EBITDA between $2.1 billion and $2.3 billion in fiscal 2017. Alcoa assumed aluminum prices at $1,900 per metric ton.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  alumina
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Alcoa’s 2017: The Role of Alumina Prices

    Alumina markets Before we analyze alumina markets, let’s look at aluminum’s value chain. It starts with mining bauxite—one of the most abundant metals in the Earth’s crust. Due to bauxite’s many impurities, it must be refined to produce alumina. This alumina is then processed to produce raw aluminum (SOUHY). Rio Tinto (RIO), Norsk Hydro (NHYDY), and […]

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  china exports
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Is a Rising Chinese Aluminum Supply a Risk for Alcoa Investors?

    During their 2Q16 earnings calls, Century Aluminum (CENX) and Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) expressed concern over higher Chinese supply in the second half of the year.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  guidance
    Earnings Report

    Alcoa’s 3Q16 Guidance: Everything You Need to Know

    Alcoa’s 3Q16 guidance Previously, we looked at factors that could impact Alcoa’s (AA) 3Q16 revenues. In this part, we’ll look at the company’s profitability metrics. Note that there are several metrics you can use to measure an enterprise’s profitability. Alcoa releases a non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) measure, the ATOI (after tax operating income). In […]

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  aluminum prices
    Company & Industry Overviews

    What’s Driving Aluminum Prices in 2016?

    Aluminum prices have shown resilience this year. However, aluminum has been facing stiff resistance at $1,700 per metric ton.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  coal
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Have Coking Coal Prices Run ahead of Their Fundamentals?

    Some of the Chinese capacity might come back online after the big surge in prices. This could put pressure met coal prices.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
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    Miscellaneous

    Alcoa Needs to Address 3 Key Issues Relating to Its Split

    Although the general consensus seems to be that Alcoa’s (AA) split could help create long-term shareholder value, there remain some unanswered questions.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///last energy prices
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Falling Energy Prices May Put Freeport-McMoRan’s Plans in Limbo

    Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is looking for strategic alternatives for its energy business. In its 3Q15 earnings call, FCX gave a six-month timeframe for making a decision on energy assets.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///fed rate
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Does the Fed’s December Meeting Have Any Significance for Alcoa?

    If there’s a rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting, it could mean higher borrowing costs, which could make it even more challenging for aluminum producers.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part
    Earnings Report

    How Did the Aluminum Industry Fare in 3Q15?

    2015 has been nothing short of a nightmare for the aluminum industry. Alcoa (AA) and Century Aluminum (CENX) have lost 45% and 85%, respectively, so far in 2015.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part
    Miscellaneous

    Alcoa’s Investor Day: What Investors Should Know

    Responding to lower aluminum prices, Alcoa (AA) has cut smelting capacity to restore supply balance. At its Investor Day on November 4, Alcoa gave its guidance on the projected aluminum surplus in 2016.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///energy business
    Earnings Report

    Freeport-McMoRan’s Take on the Energy Business: 3Q15 Call

    Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is looking at “strategic alternatives” for its energy business. It has highlighted two objectives for its energy (DBE) business

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  aluminum premiums
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    No Break for Alcoa: Aluminum Premiums Are Still Weak

    US Midwest aluminum premiums have been stable at $0.07 per pound in October. However, aluminum premiums have fallen more than 70% YTD.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Factors Are Driving Alcoa’s Performance?

    Alcoa (AA) closed at $9.42 on October 19. Alcoa’s stock has been falling since the company released its 3Q15 earnings after the markets closed on October 8.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///crude prices energy ipo
    Miscellaneous

    What Happened to Freeport-McMoRan’s Energy IPO?

    Freeport-McMoRan filed for an IPO of its energy business more than three months ago, but we haven’t yet heard from the company on the IPO’s proposed date.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  aluminum premiums
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Does the Latest Trend in Aluminum Premiums Mean for Alcoa?

    US Midwest aluminum premiums were fairly stable in July and August, inching up a bit in early July. However, aluminum premiums have fallen again in September.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part
    Company & Industry Overviews

    What Will Drive Alcoa? Commodity Prices or Transformation?

    Most aluminum companies delivered decent stock market returns last year. So what has gone wrong with Alcoa? Its transformation strategy was expected to enhance shareholder value.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  freepoprt share price
    Miscellaneous

    Freeport-McMoRan Registers Energy Biz for Initial Public Offering

    In this series, we’ll analyze how Freeport-McMoRan investors could be affected by an IPO for the firm’s energy business, which it acquired for $9 billion just two years ago.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
  • uploads///part  aluminum price
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    LME Aluminum Is Trading at 17-Month Low on Weak Macros

    The revenues of aluminum producers like Alcoa (AA) and South32 (SOUHY) are tied to the LME aluminum prices.

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
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