Analyzing Mining Stocks’ Correlation in 2016

Precious metals were doing well at the beginning of 2016. It’s important to know which mining stocks overperformed and underperformed precious metals. Precious metal prices have been falling since Donald Trump won the US presidential election on November 8, 2016. As a result, mining stocks have also been falling.

Mining companies that have high correlations with gold include Buenaventura (BVN), AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Hecla Mining (HL), and Kinross Gold (KGC). These companies have risen significantly YTD (year-to-date). Mining companies often amplify the returns of precious metals. However, the past few weeks have been choppy for these companies.

The substantial returns of most mining companies have been due to safe-haven bids that boosted gold and other precious metals. However, the demand for these mining companies seems to be in danger due to the recent fall in precious metal prices.

As you can see in the above table, Kinross is the most correlated with gold on a YTD basis among the four stocks under review. Buenaventura is the least correlated with gold, mainly due to its YTD losses.

Kinross and Hecla saw their correlations with the gold rise. Kinross’s correlation rose from an ~0.55 three-year correlation to an ~0.61 one-year correlation. A correlation of ~0.61 suggests that about 61% of the time, Kinross moved in the same direction as gold over the past year. Usually, a fall in gold leads to falls in the prices of mining stocks, while a rise in gold leads to increases in mining stocks.

The relationship between gold and Buenaventura and AngloGold hasn’t been stable. Their correlations saw upward and downward movements.

Leveraged mining funds such as the Direxion Daily Gold Miners ETF (NUGT) and the ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (AGQ) fell due to declines in precious metals.