AvalonBay Communities’ Stock Outperformed Its Peers in 2015



Upcoming earnings announcement

AvalonBay Communities (AVB) is the second-largest residential REIT company in the US with a market capitalization of $24.6 billion. For a complete overview of the company, please read AvalonBay Communities: Everything Investors Need to Know. AvalonBay Communities is set to release its 4Q15 earnings and full-year 2015 earnings on February 3, 2016.

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AvalonBay’s performance relative to its peers

In 2015, AvalonBay returned 11%, with the stock trading at $111 on December 31, 2015. In 2015, shares of AvalonBay Communities outperformed the REIT sector and some of its peers. The Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ), which represents the US REIT sector, returned -3% in 2015.

A peer group comparison shows that the shares of Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) and UDR (UDR) outperformed in 2015 with returns 19.3% and 19.8%, respectively. On the other hand, Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV) and American Campus Communities (ACC) underperformed with respective returns of 5.6% and -1.9%.

Analysts’ recommendations

Among the 26 analysts following AvalonBay’s stock, 16 have assigned a “buy” rating. AvalonBay received only one sell rating and nine “hold” ratings. Presently, AvalonBay has a consensus “buy” rating with a price target of $195.25 over the next 12 months. The price target represents a return of ~6% in 2016. The analysts’ estimates and recommendations have a significant impact on the company’s stock price.

Series overview

With AvalonBay’s 4Q15 earnings release around the corner, let’s discuss the earnings expectations in this series. We’ll also look at estimates for revenue as well as the funds from operations in the next few parts of this series.


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