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Haynesville Shale Natural Gas Production Fell in September

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Haynesville shale natural gas production

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that the Haynesville Shale produced 6.5 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day of natural gas in September. This is according to its Drilling Productivity Report released on October 13, 2015.

The Haynesville Shale’s natural gas production in September was 0.1% lower than production in August. Even on a YoY (year-over-year) basis, it was 1.4% less. The drop marked the fourth straight month-over-month fall in the Haynesville Shale’s natural gas production in 2015.

The Haynesville Shale is located in Louisiana, southwestern Arkansas, and eastern Texas.

According to the EIA, natural gas production at the Haynesville Shale rose 68% in the past eight years. In September 2015, the region produced ~6.5 Bcf per day of natural gas compared to ~3.9 Bcf per day in September 2007.

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What this means for Haynesville producers

Natural gas producers at the Haynesville Shale will lose from lower production. Haynesville producers include Anadarko Petroleum (APC), BHP Billiton (BHP), EP Energy (EPE), and EXCO Resources (XCO).

Anadarko Petroleum accounts for 1.7% of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). It’s also 0.2% of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Haynesville rigs and monthly additions from one average rig

The number of active rigs at the Haynesville Shale was 35 in September, down from 37 in August. A year ago, there were 55 drilling rigs in the region. It’s important to note that most of the Haynesville rigs are horizontal in trajectory.

From September 2007 to September 2015, additional natural gas production per rig at the Haynesville Shale rose from ~1.1 MMcf (million cubic feet) per day to 5.7 MMcf per day, or by 4.2x. In the 12 months to September 2015, the natural gas production addition per rig rose 16%.

Have production adjustments started in US shales?

Crude oil and natural gas production at key US shales rose in the past few years. However, aggregate crude oil production in these shales fell in the past five months. Aggregate natural gas production followed suit in the past three months. The EIA’s projections suggest that production could fall more or stagnate at many of these shales within the next two months.

In the next two parts of this series, we’ll review the EIA’s crude oil and natural gas production forecasts for the major US shales.

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