According to PointLogic, US dry natural gas production fell 3.7% to 74 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day between December 28, 2017, and January 3, 2018.
December natural gas (GASL) (BOIL) futures were below their 50-day and 100-day moving averages of $3.12 per MMBtu and $3.16 per MMBtu on November 16, 2017.
NYMEX natural gas (GASL) (FCG) futures contracts for December delivery rose 0.6% to $3.21 per MMBtu in electronic trading at 1:10 AM EST on November 10.
PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose by 0.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.5 Bcf per day on September 14–20, 2017.
NYMEX natural gas (DGAZ)(UGAZ) futures contracts for October delivery fell 0.4% to $3.05 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading at 3:50 AM EST today.
October natural gas (UGAZ) (DGAZ) futures contracts trading in NYMEX fell 0.2% to $2.91 per MMBtu in electronic trading at 2:00 AM EST on August 28, 2017.
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 28 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,973 Bcf on July 7–14, 2017. Inventories rose 0.1% week-over-week.
In its June STEO report, the EIA estimates that US natural gas prices could average $3.16 per MMBtu in 2017—0.4% lower than the previous month’s estimates.
Hedge funds increased their net long position in US natural gas futures and options contracts by 27,776 contracts on May 9–16, 2017—the highest level ever.
June natural gas (UGAZ) (UNG) (FCG) futures contracts rose 0.8% and were trading at $3.21 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading at 5:00 AM EST on May 5, 2017.
Consol Energy (CNX) didn’t give any specific production guidance for 4Q16. But in November 2016, it increased its E&P division’s 2016 production guidance.
Two weeks after announcing a $450-million Haynesville Shale asset divestiture, Chesapeake Energy announced a second Hayneville divestiture on December 20.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) announced on December 5 that it had agreed to sell 78,000 net acres in Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale for $450 million. The buyer is an undisclosed private player.
Natural gas futures contracts for December delivery fell 2.2% and closed at $2.7 per MMBtu on November 17. Natural gas prices fell due to warmer weather.
Consol Energy’s production guidance Although Consol Energy (CNX) did not give any specific production guidance for 3Q16, in July 2016, Consol Energy increased its E&P (exploration and production) division’s fiscal 2016 production guidance to 380–385 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent), a midpoint increase of ~4.5 Bcfe (or ~1%) from its old production guidance of ~378 […]
For 3Q16, Range Resources (RRC) expects total production of 1.43 billion cubic feet equivalent per day, which is ~1% lower than Range Resources’s production volumes in 3Q15.
September natural gas futures fell by 0.2% and were trading at $2.66 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading on August 19, 2016, at 6:40 AM EST.
On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to August 15, 2016, natural gas rose 57.9% on a closing price basis.
In the last five trading sessions, natural gas futures have fallen by 9.8%. They closed at ~$2.56 per MMBtu on August 10—down ~2.1% compared to the previous session.
For 2Q16, Southwestern Energy (SWN) reported total production of ~225 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent). That’s above its 2Q16 production guidance of 210–215 Bcfe.
Natural gas futures contracts for August delivery rose by 1.5% and settled at $2.69 per MMBtu on July 21. Prices rose due to the hot summer weather forecast.
August natural gas futures contracts fell by 0.37% and closed at $2.72 per MMBtu on Thursday, July 14. Prices fell due to the larger-than-expected rise in natural gas inventories.
Between July 6 and July 13, 2016, natural gas (UNG) (DGAZ) (BOIL) (GASL) (GASX) (DGAZ) (FCG) futures fell by ~1.8%, and the US Dollar Index (UUP) rose by ~0.17%.
Between July 1 and July 11, 2016, an equally weighted basket of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 3.2%. These stocks operate with a production mix of at least 60% in natural gas.
On July 7, 2016, the EIA reported that US natural gas inventories had risen by 39 billion cubic feet to 3,179 Bcf between June 24, 2016, and July 1, 2016.
PointLogic reported that natural gas supplies fell by 1.1% to 79.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day for the week ending June 29, 2016, compared to the previous week.
As of June 17, 2016, Triangle Petroleum (TPLM) had the highest implied volatility among upstream stocks at 225.5. Its 15-day average implied volatility was 232.5.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) forecasts that US natural gas production could average ~79.6 Bcf per day and ~81.3 Bcf per day in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
During the 2015–2016 winter, the high intensity of El Niño kept the weather warmer than expected. As a result, at the end of March 2016, the US natural gas inventory was at 2.5 trillion cubic feet.
Natural gas prices hit a 17-year low on February 28 due to mild winter weather and oversupply. US natural gas prices fell 60% between 2014 and early 2016.
The weather forecast for May 9–15, 2016, indicates that the temperatures could remain higher than the five-year average temperatures for first five days.
Natural gas should be negatively correlated with the US Dollar Index. A stronger dollar implies more expensive natural gas for consumers in other currencies.
Stocks with a production mix of at least 80% in natural gas had a stronger correlation to crude oil than natural gas in the past month and three months.
In the past year, the correlation rose between natural gas and crude oil. During August 2015 and December 2015, the 30-day correlation rose significantly.
Short covering and bargain hunting could support natural gas prices. The nearest resistance for natural gas prices is seen at $2.40 per MMBtu, and prices hit this level in January 2016.
NYMEX-traded natural gas futures contracts for March delivery fell by 2.7% and closed at $1.80 per MMBtu on February 19, 2016. Gas prices fell for the second straight day due to a cold weather forecast and weak demand cues.
On February 4, 2016, the EIA released its weekly natural gas inventory report. US natural gas fell 152 Bcf to 2,934 Bcf for the week ended January 29, 2016.
The EIA estimates that US winter weather will be 15% warmer in 2015–2016 compared to last year. It’s expected to be warmer due to the El-Nino weather pattern.
February natural gas futures contracts trading on NYMEX rose slightly by 1% and closed at $2.18 per MMBtu in yesterday’s trade. Natural gas prices rose for the fifth straight day.
Natural gas prices have fallen by more than 19% in 2015 due to long-term oversupply concerns. Prices tested a 16-year low in December 2015 due to weak demand.
US natural gas production from the lower 48 US states averaged 81.7 Bcf/day for the week ended December 28, 2015. The current production is almost equivalent to last week’s natural gas production.
January natural gas futures contracts trading on NYMEX rose by 2.3% to close at $2.03 per MMBtu (British thermal units in millions) on Thursday, December 24, 2015.
Record production, record inventory, and mild winter weather will continue to put pressure on natural gas prices. Gas prices could see the next support at $1.60 per MMBtu. They hit this in 1995.
