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Hedge Funds’ Net Long Positions in Natural Gas near 8-Month High
Hedge funds’ net long positions in US natural gas futures and options contracts rose 50% to 164,450 on January 16–23, 2018.
US Natural Gas Consumption Could Help Natural Gas Bulls
According to PointLogic, US natural gas consumption fell 2% to 81.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on January 25–31, 2018.
US Natural Gas Futures Could End This Week on a Bullish Note
US natural gas (UNG) futures contracts for February delivery are above their 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages on January 19, 2018.
US Natural Gas Consumption Could Hit a Record in 2018 and 2019
US natural gas consumption fell 14.4% to 102.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on January 4–10, 2018, according to PointLogic.
US Natural Gas Production Could Pressure Prices in 2018
According to PointLogic, US dry natural gas production fell 3.7% to 74 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day between December 28, 2017, and January 3, 2018.
Will US Natural Gas Futures Start 2018 on a Positive Note?
February US natural gas (UNG) futures contracts were above their 20-day moving averages on December 29, 2017.
Will US Natural Gas Futures Fall More?
US natural gas (GASL) futures contracts for January delivery were below their 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages on December 14, 2017.
US Natural Gas Futures Could Maintain Bearish Momentum
January US natural gas futures (GASL) contracts were below their 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages on December 7, 2017.
US Natural Gas Futures Might Continue to Fall Next Week
December natural gas (GASL) (BOIL) futures were below their 50-day and 100-day moving averages of $3.12 per MMBtu and $3.16 per MMBtu on November 16, 2017.
Traders Are Tracking US Natural Gas Inventories
The EIA reported that US gas inventories fell by 18 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,772 Bcf on November 3–10, 2017.
Cold Weather Might Be the Turning Point for Natural Gas Bulls
NYMEX natural gas (GASL) (FCG) futures contracts for December delivery rose 0.6% to $3.21 per MMBtu in electronic trading at 1:10 AM EST on November 10.
World Bank Thinks US Natural Gas Prices Could Rise in 2018
World Bank expects that US natural gas prices could average $3.1 per MMBtu in 2018, which would be 4% higher than the average level in 2017.
Will US Natural Gas Inventories Help Natural Gas Futures?
The EIA (or US Energy Information Administration) published its weekly US natural gas inventory report on October 26, 2017.
ConocoPhillips Outperformed Crude Oil: Positive for Its Uptrend
For the week ending October 20, 2017, crude oil (USO) prices rose from $51.45 per barrel to $51.84 per barrel—an increase of 0.76%.
Is US Natural Gas Production Bearish for Natural Gas?
US dry natural gas production will likely average ~73.6 Bcf/d in 2017. It will likely rise by 4.9 Bcf/d or 6.6% to 78.5 Bcf/d in 2018.
OPEC’s Meeting Could Impact US Natural Gas Production and Prices
PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose by 0.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.5 Bcf per day on September 14–20, 2017.
Will US Natural Gas Consumption Outweigh Production?
PointLogic estimates that weekly US natural gas consumption fell 6.6% to 52 Bcf per day from September 7 to 13. Consumption fell 13% year-over-year.
Will the Weather Drive US Natural Gas Futures?
NYMEX natural gas (DGAZ)(UGAZ) futures contracts for October delivery fell 0.4% to $3.05 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading at 3:50 AM EST today.
Why US Natural Gas Production Fell from a 10-Month High
The EIA estimates that monthly US dry natural gas production fell by 1.36 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day or 1.8% to 72.9 Bcf per day in June 2017.
Hurricane Harvey Could Impact Natural Gas Prices
October natural gas (UGAZ) (DGAZ) futures contracts trading in NYMEX fell 0.2% to $2.91 per MMBtu in electronic trading at 2:00 AM EST on August 28, 2017.
EIA Downgrades US Natural Gas Price Forecasts
In its June STEO report, the EIA estimates that US natural gas prices could average $3.16 per MMBtu in 2017—0.4% lower than the previous month’s estimates.
Hedge Funds’ Net Long Position in US Natural Gas Hit a New High
Hedge funds increased their net long position in US natural gas futures and options contracts by 27,776 contracts on May 9–16, 2017—the highest level ever.
Lower Rise in US Natural Gas Inventories Boosted Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 45 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,301 Bcf between April 28, 2017, and May 5, 2017.
Will Weather Affect US Natural Gas Prices in May 2017?
June natural gas (UGAZ) (UNG) (FCG) futures contracts rose 0.8% and were trading at $3.21 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading at 5:00 AM EST on May 5, 2017.
US Natural Gas Inventories Are Higher than Their 5-Year Average
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories fell by 68 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,295 Bcf between February 24, 2017, and March 3, 2017.
Analyzing US Natural Gas Inventories: Week Ending February 24
The EIA estimates that US natural gas inventories will be at 1,805 Bcf by the end of March 2017—3.7% higher than the five-year average.
Decoding US Natural Gas Inventories: Week Ending February 17
US natural gas inventories are at 2,356 Bcf for the week ending February 17, 2017—10% lower than the same period in 2016.
Analyzing Natural Gas Inventories: Week Ending February 10
The EIA estimates that US natural gas inventories will be at 1,805 Bcf by the end of March 2017—3.7% higher than the five-year average.
Consol Energy’s 4Q16 Production Guidance, Management Strategies
Consol Energy (CNX) didn’t give any specific production guidance for 4Q16. But in November 2016, it increased its E&P division’s 2016 production guidance.
US Natural Gas Inventories Boosted Natural Gas Prices
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories fell by 151 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,160 Bcf between December 30, 2016, and January 6, 2017.
Chesapeake Energy Announces Sale of Second Haynesville Package
Two weeks after announcing a $450-million Haynesville Shale asset divestiture, Chesapeake Energy announced a second Hayneville divestiture on December 20.
Chesapeake Energy Announces Haynesville Asset Divestiture
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) announced on December 5 that it had agreed to sell 78,000 net acres in Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale for $450 million. The buyer is an undisclosed private player.
Will US Natural Gas Production Impact Natural Gas Prices?
The EIA estimated that US-marketed natural gas production fell by 0.63 Bcf per day to 75.93 Bcf per day in October—compared to the previous month.
Will the Weather Boost US Natural Gas Prices?
Natural gas futures contracts for December delivery fell 2.2% and closed at $2.7 per MMBtu on November 17. Natural gas prices fell due to warmer weather.
Monthly US Natural Gas Production Fell in October
The EIA estimated that US-marketed natural gas production fell by 0.64 Bcf per day to 77.93 Bcf per day in October—compared to September 2016.
How Did CONSOL’s E&P Division Perform in 3Q16?
On October 31, 2016, CONSOL Energy and Noble Energy (NBL) announced the separation of their Marcellus Shale 50-50 joint venture.
Consol Energy’s Production Guidance and Strategies for 3Q15
Consol Energy’s production guidance Although Consol Energy (CNX) did not give any specific production guidance for 3Q16, in July 2016, Consol Energy increased its E&P (exploration and production) division’s fiscal 2016 production guidance to 380–385 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent), a midpoint increase of ~4.5 Bcfe (or ~1%) from its old production guidance of ~378 […]
How Range Resources’s Guidance Matches Analysts’ Guidance
For 3Q16, Range Resources (RRC) expects total production of 1.43 billion cubic feet equivalent per day, which is ~1% lower than Range Resources’s production volumes in 3Q15.
Winter Weather and Inventories Could Impact Natural Gas Prices
Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices are expected to trade below $3.27 per MMBtu this winter from November 2016 to March 2017.
Natural Gas Supplies Rose Due to More Imports from Canada
Data provider PointLogic reported that US natural gas supplies rose 0.4% to 78.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from September 8–14, 2016.
NYMEX Natural Gas Prices: Long-Term Forecasts
US natural gas inventories are currently 11% higher than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could weigh on US natural gas prices.
Natural Gas Prices Rise for the 5th Consecutive Session
September natural gas futures fell by 0.2% and were trading at $2.66 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading on August 19, 2016, at 6:40 AM EST.
Natural Gas: Why Is It Ignoring Bullish Inventories?
In the last five trading sessions, natural gas futures have fallen by 9.8%. They closed at ~$2.56 per MMBtu on August 10—down ~2.1% compared to the previous session.
How Weather Could Impact Natural Gas Prices
In the week ended August 5, 2016, temperatures were higher than the forecast for the week. That boosted natural gas prices on August 3.
Analyzing the Relationship between the US Dollar and Natural Gas
Between July 27 and August 3, 2016, natural gas futures rose by ~6.7%, and the US Dollar Index fell by ~1.5%.
Natural Gas: Key Moving Averages and Price Forecasts
Natural gas futures rose ~3.9% on August 3, 2016, compared to the previous session. The gain was caused by weather reports suggesting hotter weather.
How Did Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks Perform?
On March 3, 2016, natural gas futures touched a 17-year low of $1.64. From March 3 to July 25, 2016, natural gas rose 65.2%.
Southwestern Energy in 2Q16: Operational Performance, Strategies
For 2Q16, Southwestern Energy (SWN) reported total production of ~225 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent). That’s above its 2Q16 production guidance of 210–215 Bcfe.
Hot Summer Weather Forecast Sends Natural Gas Prices Higher
Natural gas futures contracts for August delivery rose by 1.5% and settled at $2.69 per MMBtu on July 21. Prices rose due to the hot summer weather forecast.
Which Natural Gas Stocks Have Outperformed?
Between July 11 and July 18, 2016, an equally weighted basket of natural-gas-weighted stocks rose 3.0%.
Hedge Funds Net Short Positions in Natural Gas Futures, Options Rise
Hedge funds increased their net short positions due to uncertainty over the summer weather forecast.
US Natural Gas Supplies Were Flat in the Week Ended July 13
PointLogic reported that US natural gas supplies were flat at 79.7 Bcfpd for the week ended July 13, 2016, compared with the previous week.
Natural Gas Prices Fell despite Hot Summer Weather Forecast
August natural gas futures contracts fell by 0.37% and closed at $2.72 per MMBtu on Thursday, July 14. Prices fell due to the larger-than-expected rise in natural gas inventories.
How Does the US Dollar Affect Natural Gas Prices?
Between July 6 and July 13, 2016, natural gas (UNG) (DGAZ) (BOIL) (GASL) (GASX) (DGAZ) (FCG) futures fell by ~1.8%, and the US Dollar Index (UUP) rose by ~0.17%.
Southwestern Energy’s 2Q16 Production Guidance, Management Strategies
For 2Q16, Southwestern Energy (SWN) expects its total production to range from 210 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent) to 215 Bcfe.
What Does a Portfolio of Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks Look Like?
Between July 1 and July 11, 2016, an equally weighted basket of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 3.2%. These stocks operate with a production mix of at least 60% in natural gas.
Do US Natural Gas Inventories Support Prices?
On July 7, 2016, the EIA reported that US natural gas inventories had risen by 39 billion cubic feet to 3,179 Bcf between June 24, 2016, and July 1, 2016.
US Natural Gas Supplies Fell due to Drop in Imports from Canada
PointLogic reported that natural gas supplies fell by 1.1% to 79.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day for the week ending June 29, 2016, compared to the previous week.
How Does the Weather Drive Natural Gas Prices?
In the week ended June 24, 2016, temperatures were higher than forecasts for the week. Warmer weather boosted natural gas prices.
Upstream Stocks with High and Low Implied Volatility
As of June 17, 2016, Triangle Petroleum (TPLM) had the highest implied volatility among upstream stocks at 225.5. Its 15-day average implied volatility was 232.5.
What’s the Natural Gas Price Forecast for 2016 and 2017?
The EIA forecast that the US natural gas supply and demand gap will be 4.1 Bcf per day in 2016 and 4.4 Bcf per day in 2017.
What’s the Natural Gas Price Forecast for the Rest of 2016?
In its June STEO report, the EIA forecast that US natural gas prices will average $2.29 per MMBtu in 2016 and $3.05 per MMBtu in 2017.
Natural Gas Prices Rose 11% Last Week Due to Hot Weather
The weather is expected to be hotter than normal over the next two weeks in the US. As a result, natural gas prices are up 11% for the week.
Which Upstream Stocks Have the Highest Implied Volatility?
Among upstream stocks, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) had the lowest implied volatility figures. Its implied volatility was 21.5 on June 3, 2016.
Inside Range Resources’ Production Volumes
For 1Q16, Range Resources reported total production of 1.38 Bcfe per day, which was above its 1Q16 production guidance of 1.35 Bcfe.
Which E&P Stocks Have Given the Highest Returns?
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) had the lowest IV (implied volatility) figures among all upstream companies on May 27, 2016.
How’s the Weather Impacting Natural Gas?
In the week ending May 27, the actual temperatures were lower than the forecast between May 23 and May 27. Natural gas futures were under pressure.
Did Weekly Natural Gas Production and Consumption Rise?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) forecasts that US natural gas production could average ~79.6 Bcf per day and ~81.3 Bcf per day in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
How Do Natural-Gas-Weighted Stocks Correlate with Natural Gas?
Natural-gas-weighted stocks with high correlations with natural gas futures have tended to move with natural gas in the past.
How Does EI Niño Affect Natural Gas Prices?
During the 2015–2016 winter, the high intensity of El Niño kept the weather warmer than expected. As a result, at the end of March 2016, the US natural gas inventory was at 2.5 trillion cubic feet.
Weather and US Natural Gas Inventories Impact Natural Gas Prices
Natural gas prices hit a 17-year low on February 28 due to mild winter weather and oversupply. US natural gas prices fell 60% between 2014 and early 2016.
By How Much Has the US Natural Gas Inventory Fallen in 2016?
On May 12, 2016, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its Weekly Natural Gas Inventory report.
Natural Gas and the Weather Forecast: What to Expect
The weather forecast for May 9–15, 2016, indicates that the temperatures could remain higher than the five-year average temperatures for first five days.
Natural Gas Recovery: Will the Dollar Index Play a Crucial Role?
Natural gas should be negatively correlated with the US Dollar Index. A stronger dollar implies more expensive natural gas for consumers in other currencies.
Oil-Related Sentiments Are Driving Natural Gas–Weighted Stocks
Stocks with a production mix of at least 80% in natural gas had a stronger correlation to crude oil than natural gas in the past month and three months.
How Murphy Oil’s Stock Price Reacted to Past Earnings
Recently, Murphy Oil (MUR) has shown excellent relative strength when compared with other crude oil (OIL) and natural gas (UNG) producers.
Natural Gas Rig Count Fell: Does It Indicate Lower Production?
According to Baker Hughes’ data release for the week ending on April 22, 2016, the natural gas rig count fell to 88—compared to 225 a year ago.
How’s Natural Gas Correlated to Crude Oil?
In the past year, the correlation rose between natural gas and crude oil. During August 2015 and December 2015, the 30-day correlation rose significantly.
Natural Gas Rises, Key Stocks Rally: Why the Rally Is Unstable
On March 24, 2016, natural gas futures rose 0.67% to close at $1.81 compared to the previous trading session.
US Natural Gas Production Makes History: What’s Next?
US natural gas production hit a record of 73.3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day in February 2016.
Less-Than-Expected Rise in Natural Gas Inventory Supported Prices
The US natural gas inventory rose by 15 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 2,493 Bcf for the week ended March 18, 2016.
Natural Gas Prices Could Rally Due to Short Covering
Short covering and bargain hunting could support natural gas prices. The nearest resistance for natural gas prices is seen at $2.40 per MMBtu, and prices hit this level in January 2016.
Natural Gas Prices Fell ~8% since February 19 Due to Weak Demand
NYMEX-traded natural gas futures contracts for March delivery fell by 2.7% and closed at $1.80 per MMBtu on February 19, 2016. Gas prices fell for the second straight day due to a cold weather forecast and weak demand cues.
US Natural Gas Inventory: 18% More Than Five-Year Average
On February 4, 2016, the EIA released its weekly natural gas inventory report. US natural gas fell 152 Bcf to 2,934 Bcf for the week ended January 29, 2016.
Warmer US Winter Weather Pressures Natural Gas Prices
The EIA estimates that US winter weather will be 15% warmer in 2015–2016 compared to last year. It’s expected to be warmer due to the El-Nino weather pattern.
Natural Gas Prices Fell 12% in 2 Days and Hit Monthly Lows
Natural gas prices fell by 12% in the last two trading sessions due to the mild winter weather forecast and heavy surplus of natural gas supplies.
Natural Gas Prices Fall for the First Time in the Last 7 Days
So far in 2016, natural gas prices have fallen by 4%. They also fell by 19% in 2015 due to long-term oversupply concerns.
Cold Weather Forecasts Drive Natural Gas Prices Higher
February natural gas futures contracts trading on NYMEX rose slightly by 1% and closed at $2.18 per MMBtu in yesterday’s trade. Natural gas prices rose for the fifth straight day.
2016 Begins with a Massive Drawdown of Natural Gas Inventory
According to EIA, the US natural gas inventory fell by 117 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,643 Bcf for the week ending January 1, 2016.
Natural Gas Prices Volatile Due to Excess Supply
Natural gas prices have fallen by more than 19% in 2015 due to long-term oversupply concerns. Prices tested a 16-year low in December 2015 due to weak demand.
Natural Gas Prices Fell by 19% in 2015
US natural gas prices fell by 19% in 2015. The prices fell for the second straight year due to oversupply concerns. UNG fell by 42% in 2015.
Will US Natural Gas Production Continue to Test New Records?
US natural gas production from the lower 48 US states averaged 81.7 Bcf/day for the week ended December 28, 2015. The current production is almost equivalent to last week’s natural gas production.
Natural Gas Stockpile Report Could Support Natural Gas Prices
On December 31, 2015, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) is scheduled to release its natural gas stockpile report.
Natural Gas Prices Rally by 14%
January natural gas futures contracts trading on NYMEX rose by 2.3% to close at $2.03 per MMBtu (British thermal units in millions) on Thursday, December 24, 2015.
Natural Gas Prices: How Low Can They Go?
Record production, record inventory, and mild winter weather will continue to put pressure on natural gas prices. Gas prices could see the next support at $1.60 per MMBtu. They hit this in 1995.
Weather Forecast Is Vital for the Natural Gas Market
Record natural gas production, the mild winter weather forecast, and record natural gas inventories are adding pressure to natural gas prices.
Natural Gas Prices Fall 24% in December: Will They Fall More?
January natural gas futures fell by 2% on December 17. Natural gas prices fell due to the less-than-expected fall in the natural gas inventory.
Natural Gas Prices Almost Flat for Third Straight Day
The consensus on falling inventory could support natural gas prices. However, natural gas prices have been almost flat for the last three days.
Will the Natural Gas Inventory Fall for the Second Straight Week?
On December 9, the EIA will release its weekly natural gas inventory report. The US commercial natural gas inventory fell by 53 Bcf for the week ending November 27.
Bottom Fishing Boosts Natural Gas Prices
On Monday, November 30, 2015, natural gas prices rallied due to lower natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices boosted bargain buying, and short covering supported natural gas prices.
