Capstead Mortgage Corp

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  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why Fannie Mae securities rallied with bonds about 1/4

    The main action driving TBAs specifically seems to be out of Washington, between the Fed purchases and the government’s policies to drive origination.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR consumer confidence
    Financials

    Consumer confidence ticks down as Americans fret the economy

    The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 79.7, from an upward-revised 81.8 in August. (Consumer confidence in 1985 was 100.)

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Assets
    Financials

    The Fed maintains its policy on reinvesting QE assets

    The Fed’s decision to reinvest QE assets in the markets affects REITs. It keeps a bid under TBAs, and it supports MBS values in general.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Must-know: Why the jobs report slammed Ginnie Mae TBAs

    Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report was the catalyst for a heavy sell-off in the bond market. The ten-year bond sold off by 15 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Import Price Index
    Financials

    Import prices fall in May

    Import prices are an important driver of inflation The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its U.S. Import and Export Price Indices monthly. The report keeps track of import prices by locality, type, and fuel/non-fuel. It also separates commodities and non-commodities. Commodity prices tend to be more volatile than non-commodity prices, so it makes sense to […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Weekly Realist real estate roundup (Part 2)

    Back to Part 1 Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing, and they’re the investment of choice for mortgage REITs  When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Capacity Utilization
    Financials

    Capacity Utilization falls in May

    Capacity utilization is a bellwether of economic activity Capacity utilization is a good top-down macroeconomic indicator, which helps forecast the labor market, final demand, consumption, and inflation. While manufacturing is no longer the primary driver of the U.S. economy, it still influences the economy to a large degree, particularly for unskilled workers. U.S. manufacturing is […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Ginnie Mae securities catch a bid as bonds rally, reaching 105 5/32

    The front-month Ginnie Mae TBA drifted higher as bonds rallied. After starting the week at 105 17/32, they added about 5/8 of a point to close at 105 5/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Sentiment
    Financials

    Consumer Confidence dips in May but still improving.

    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is an important indicator of the consumer’s perception of the U.S. economy. Similar to other consumer confidence measures, it asks consumers about their views on the current economic conditions, and their […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Ginnie Mae TBAs rally before the Fed meeting

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing and the investment of choice for mortgage REITs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities, it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced (also know as the TBA) market. The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Consumer

    Why did the Ginnie Mae TBAs catch a bid on the bond market rally?

    The front-month Ginnie Mae TBA drifted higher as bonds rallied. After starting the week at 105 4/32, they traded 7/16 higher to close at 105 18/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Real Estate

    The End Of Quantitative Easing Could Make Mortgage REITs Vulnerable

    Big agency REITs like Annaly (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC) took the chance to deleverage their balance sheets after the warning in the spring of 2013.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///HARP Refinances
    Financials

    Why the HARP refis dry up as rates rise, lowering prepay speeds

    HARP was designed to help people who wanted to stay in their home and who had adjustable-rate mortgages where they wouldn’t be able to afford the payment once the mortgage adjusted upward.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MFA Financial
    Financials

    Why home price appreciation has saved MFA Financial

    MFA Financial is a REIT that invests in both agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities MFA Financial (MFA) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in both agency (government-guaranteed) and non-agency (non-guaranteed) mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Its portfolio is primarily invested in hybrids, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM), and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. It chooses to invest […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why Ginnie Mae TBAs rallied despite looming government shutdown

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing and the investment of choice for mortgage REITs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities, it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced (also know as the TBA) market. The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Real Estate

    Why Ginnie Mae securities followed bonds lower

    The ten-year bond sold off, with yields increasing from 2.19% to 2.27%. Ginnie Mae TBAs followed, dropping from 104 23/32 to 104 20/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR NFIB
    Financials

    NFIB Small Business Survey flashes warning signs for REITs

    The National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Survey is a finger on the pulse of small business.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBAs rally as Ben Bernanke soothes the bond market, better for mortgage REITs

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing, and they’re the investment of choice for mortgage REITs  When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities, it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBAs flat as rates stabilize, good for mortgage REITs

    Last week was a relatively light week data-wise, and many market participants were off work ahead of the Labor Day weekend.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Real Estate

    Ginnie Mae securities shake off the end of quantitative easing

    The ten-year bond sold off, with yields increasing from 2.27% to 2.34%. Ginnie Mae TBAs bucked the trend, rising from 104 20/32 to 104 25/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why mortgage-backed securities were calm ahead of more Fed tapering

    Mortgage-backed securities (both Fannie and Ginnie) were flat as the bond market barely moved. On Wednesday, the FOMC released the minutes from their January meeting.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • ADP Payrolls come in lower than expected
    Financials

    ADP Payrolls come in lower than expected

    The ADP National Employment Report is a monthly preview of the Labor Department’s Jobs Report Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is a global provider of business outsourcing. They provide a range of services from human resources to payroll. The ADP National Employment Report is published monthly by the ADP Research Institute. It provides a snapshot of […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CYS Dividend
    Financials

    CYS Investments: An important mid-sized agency mortgage REIT

    CYS Investments (CYS) is a diversified agency mortgage REIT that invests all across the agency mortgage-backed security (or MBS) space.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinances increase as interest rates fall after the Fed surprise

    The MBA Refinance Index increases again after the Fed maintains its pace of QE (quantitative easing) The Refinance Index rose 3% (to 1,947 from 1,889) after the Fed decided to maintain its current pace of asset purchases. The bond market has been re-adjusting to the idea that we may see the end of quantitative easing soon, and […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    Must-know update: Bonds benefit from the risk-off trade

    There was almost no important economic data last week, so bonds traded inversely to the stock market.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Mortgage Delinquencies
    Financials

    Mortgage delinquencies tick up in June: Blip or trend change?

    Ninety-day mortgage delinquencies rebound to 6.7% after hitting 6.1% in May Mortgage delinquencies are falling as home prices rise and the foreclosure pipeline is clearing. While 6.7% seems low compared to the peak of 10%, the “normal” level prior to the housing bubble was in the 4%-to-5% range. This also reflects the mortgage modification push […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    MBA Refinance index falls; prepayment worries fade into the background

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index that forecasts mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    10-year bond breaks out of its trading range on positive reports

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing, and they’re the investment of choice for mortgage REITs  When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///HARP Refinances
    Financials

    HARP refinances fall in Q2 as rates increase, effect on REITs

    The Home Affordable Refinance Program permits homeowners with negative equity in their homes to refinance at today’s lower rates The Home Affordable Refinance Program was instituted in 2009 to allow homeowners with negative equity to take advantage of today’s low interest rate environment. Before HARP, banks wouldn’t lend more than the home’s value. In real-estate […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Ginnie Mae TBAs are unchanged despite a bond market sell-off

    The front-month Ginnie Mae TBAs were bid up as bonds rallied eight basis points. Ginnie Mae TBAs began the week at 106 21/32 and ended up in the same place. The underlying bond market sold off 12 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Import Price Index
    Financials

    Must-know: Import prices fall, keeping inflation well-contained

    Inflation isn’t the Fed’s biggest concern at the moment. If anything, it’s worried that inflation is too low.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NFIB Small Business Optimism
    Financials

    Must-know: NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey slips in October

    When forecasting the Fed’s next move, it pays to focus on small business earnings as much as or more than the earnings of, say, Apple.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///HARP Refinances
    Financials

    HARP refinances drop off as interest rates for mortgages increase

    HARP refinances fell to 30,000 in December from 38,700 in November.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why Fannie Mae TBAs followed bonds higher, rising 9 basis points

    The ten-year bond yield rallied 9 basis points last week, and TBAs followed. Bonds had been benefiting from the “risk-off” trade.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Mortgage Bankers Association Refi Index rises in the week ending May 3

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index to forecast mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of refinance activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why Ginnie Mae securities flatlined on a lack of economic data

    The front-month Ginnie Mae TBAs were unchanged as bonds flatlined on the lack of economic data. Ginnie Mae TBAs began and finished the week at 106 5/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Lack of volatility implications for NLY, AGNC

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing, and they’re the investment of choice for mortgage REITs  When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why Ginnie Mae securities are flat amid a declining bond market

    The front-month Ginnie Mae TBAs worked their way higher as bonds rallied on weak economic data. Ginnie Mae TBAs began and finished the week at 106 17/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why Fannie Mae TBAs sold off in sympathy with the bond market

    The main action driving TBAs specifically seems to be out of Washington, between the Fed purchases and the government’s policies to drive origination.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why Fannie Mae TBAs rallied on the Fed’s decision

    Trading in Fannie Mae TBAs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product that can be traded. TBAs settle once a month, and […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Why REITs may suffer as the MBA Refinance Index falls even as mortgage rates fall

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index that forecasts mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Real Estate

    Ginnie Mae Securities Buck The Recent Trend And Rally

    Ginnie Mae and the to-be-announced market The Fannie Mae to-be-announced (or TBA) market represents the usual conforming loan—the plain Fannie Mae 30-year mortgage. Meanwhile, Ginnie Mae TBAs are where government loans go—such as the federal housing administration (or FHA) and veterans affairs (or VA) loans. The biggest difference between a Fannie Mae mortgage-backed security (or […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinances fall as prepayment risk is much lower than 1 year ago

    The Refinance Index fell 3% (from 1,598 to 1,548), as rates rose 15 basis points. Refinances have been dropping like a stone.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBAs fell as the 10-year bond yield dropped 8 points

    The ten-year bond yield fell off 8 basis points last week, and TBAs followed. Bonds had been benefiting from the “risk-off” trade.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Ginnie Mae TBAs have remained flat on the government shutdown

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing and the investment of choice for mortgage REITs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities, it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced (also know as the TBA) market. The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why Fannie Mae securities followed bonds lower last week

    Fannie Mae MBS followed the bond market lower. Last week was when most of the Street rolled its April exposure to May. Liquidity has been downright terrible in the TBAs lately.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Mortgage Bankers Association Refinance Index falls, REITs prepayment worries fade

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index that forecasts mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    How the government shutdown will affect interest rates

    Bonds fell slightly and equities rallied on the shutdown. Why? Beltway insiders who were hoping that the financial markets would get the attention of politicians posturing in Washington were disappointed this morning with the S&P 500 futures up 7 points pre-open and a sanguine outlook from the bond market. Stocks rallied throughout the day, with […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBS tranching
    Financials

    Understanding American Capital Agency versus peers like Annaly

    American Capital Agency (AGNC) is a diversified agency mortgage REIT that invests all across the agency mortgage-backed security (MBS) space.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MFA Financial
    Financials

    MFA Financial portfolio yield continues to drop

    MFA Financial is a REIT that invests in both agency and non-agency mortgage backed securities MFA Financial (MFA) is a mortgage Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) that invests in both agency (government guaranteed) and non-agency (non-guaranteed) mortgage backed securities. Their portfolio is primarily invested in hybrids, adjustable rate mortgages (ARM), and 15 year fixed rate […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinances tick up as bond market sell-off takes a breather

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index to forecast mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Weekly mortgage applications review (Part 4)

    Back to Part 3 The MBA Refinance Index falls for the eighth straight week The Refinance Index fell to 0.1% (to 2,247 from 2,245)  in the context of a volatile week in the bond market. The bond market has been re-adjusting to the idea that we may see the end of quantitative easing in fall. That said, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Debt
    Financials

    Consumer debt falls, low interest and high prepayments for REITs

    Elevated levels of consumer debt have been one of the reasons why the recovery has been so weak.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///AGNC dividend
    Real Estate

    American Capital Agency’s 3rd quarter earnings: Company overview

    American Capital Agency is one of the biggest REITs in the U.S. by market capitalization. Annaly Capital Management is the other. As such, AGNC is one of the biggest ultimate lenders in the mortgage market.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    TBAs were flat and the 10-year bond rose 1 basis point last week

    The ten-year bond yield rose 1 basis point last week, and TBAs were flat. Bonds had been benefiting from the “risk-off” trade.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Jobs releases and Ukraine tensions hit Fannie Mae TBAs and bonds

    The ten-year bond yield rose 15 basis points last week, so it’s no surprise that Fannie Mae TBAs got hit. Bonds had been benefiting from the “risk-off” trade,

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBAs have remained flat on the government shutdown

    Trading in Fannie Mae TBAs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product that can be traded. TBAs settle once a month, and […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Investing in REITs during a rising interest rate environment

    We may see the occasional cyclical bond bull markets in the context of a secular bear market, but the overall trend is toward increasing interest rates.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Must-read: Worst day for Fannie to-be-announced loans since sell-off began

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing, and they’re the investment of choice for mortgage REITs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities, it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Mortgage Bankers Association Refinance Index falls 8% in the week ending May 10

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index to forecast mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of refinance activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBA securities shrug off the March FOMC meeting

    Given that another $10 billion in tapering was already priced in, TBAs didn’t react to the FOMC meeting. MBS spreads tightened as MBS rallied in the face of a bond market sell-off.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Ginnie Mae TBA trading

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing and the investment of choice for mortgage REITs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities, it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced (also know as the TBA) market. The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why Ginnie Mae securities fell to 105 26/32 on a bond sell-off

    The front-month Ginnie Mae TBAs were bid up as bonds rallied eight basis points. Ginnie Mae TBAs began the week at 106 8/32 and fell to 105 26/32. The underlying bond market sold off 15 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Ginnie Mae TBAs flat, low volatility good for mortgage REITs

    Finally, we saw a week of calm in the bond market last week.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why flat Ginnie Mae securities and a bond sell-off affect REITs

    The front-month Ginnie Mae TBA drifted went nowhere while bonds sold off slightly. After starting the week at 105 27/32, they finished more or less where they started

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Balance Sheet
    Financials

    Fed balance sheet pushes $3.5 trillion, negative REITs outlook

    The Fed’s balance sheet rose to over $3.48 trillion in Q2 as quantitative easing went into overdrive The Fed’s asset purchase program, also known as quantitative easing, has swelled the Fed’s balance sheet from under $1 trillion pre-crisis to an all-time high of $3.48 trillion. The Fed has pursued this strategy in order to drive down […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Ginnie Mae TBAs rally as the Fed keeps the pedal to the metal

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing and the investment of choice for mortgage REITs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities, it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced (also know as the TBA) market. The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    The Fed keeps the punch bowl around a little longer

    The ten-year bond rallied during the week, with the yield falling to 2.73%. The markets were expecting some sort of reduction in asset purchases and were caught off guard when the Fed decided to stand pat.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Unemployment Forecast
    Financials

    Federal Reserve significantly lowers unemployment forecast

    The Federal Reserve includes formal economic forecasts in the minutes from its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meetings The Federal Reserve typically releases a short press release after its two day FOMC meeting, with a general overview and its decision on interest rates. A month later, they release the actual minutes of the meeting which […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBAs rally as Fed debates end of quantitative easing

    Trading in Fannie Mae TBAs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product that can be traded. TBAs settle once a month, and […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///sharon mccutcheon lnbXtxFGZw unsplash
    Financials

    Fed’s Balance Sheet swells to $3.2 Trillion

    The Fed’s balance sheet rose to over $3 trillion in Q1 as quantitative easing goes into overdrive.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ADP Payrolls
    Financials

    ADP signals a good payroll report, which could hurt REITs

    Private sector employment increased by 191,000 in March. January’s numbers were revised upward from 139,000 to 178,000.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR TIC flows
    Financials

    High foreign net purchases of U.S. assets in July, good for REITs

    For the first time since January, foreigners are net buyers of U.S. assets. If foreign investors return to selling mortgage-backed securities, the REITs will feel the pain.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    Recommendation: how to play increasing interest rates for Mortgage REITs

    Interest Rates are going up. Now what? It is hard to be a mortgage REIT investor right now. The secular bond bull market that began in 1981 – 1982 recession has ended. The wind at the back of REIT investors, quantitative easing, which has put a bid under most of the stuff that mortgage REITs […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Financials

    REITs must-read: The “yes but” answer to the unemployment rate

    The unemployment rate is the most important data point out there right now, and it has been falling. So why doesn’t the economy feel better to the average citizen?

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond intraday
    Financials

    Must-know: Bonds sell off on the October FOMC minutes

    Lately, there are two adjectives the Fed uses to characterize economic data points—”moderate” and “modest.”

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Real Estate

    Do REITs need to fear another refi wave?

    It looks like the MBA refinance index is still flat on its back. So while we could see a pickup in refis, so far it hasn’t materialized.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GN FN spread
    Real Estate

    The markets react to new insurance guidelines

    After Obama announced the new insurance guidelines, the mortgage-backed securities market, especially the TBA market, reacted violently.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Real Estate

    Ginnie Mae Securities Follow Bonds Higher, Affecting REITs

    Ginnie Mae and the to-be-announced (or TBA) market The Fannie Mae to-be-announced (or TBA) market represents the usual conforming loan, the plain Fannie Mae 30-year mortgage. Meanwhile, Ginnie Mae TBAs are where government loans go, such as the federal housing administration (or FHA) and veterans affairs (or VA) loans. The biggest difference between a Fannie […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Are lower rates enough to trigger another refinance wave?

    The increase in rates has basically put prepayment worries on the back burner for REITs. The lack of a reaction in the refinance index on the back of a drop in rates could mean we’re finally seeing prepayment burnout. This would be good news for REITs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Assets
    Financials

    Quantitative Easing Is Over, But What About The Fed Balance Sheet?

    The “elephant in the room” at the Fed is that rates need to return to more normal historical levels at some point. This will be in the context of a massive Fed balance sheet. This creates issues on many different levels.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Hourly Earnings
    Financials

    How much slack is there in the labor market?

    Leading indicators of the the labor market are flashing bright green. These data indicate the job market is in a transition period and about to accelerate.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///AGNC Book Value Per Share
    Financials

    American Capital Agency’s book value per share increases

    American Capital Agency’s (AGNC) book value per share increased from $25.54 in the third quarter to $25.74 in the fourth quarter.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NLY leverage
    Financials

    Annaly bumps up its leverage in 3rd quarter 2014

    How do agency REITs pay such high dividends while investing in securities that don’t pay much? Mortgage REITs like Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency (AGNC), MFA Financial (MFA), Capstead (CMO), and Hatteras (HTS) tend to have high dividend yield. Yet agency mortgage-backed securities don’t pay low-double-digit returns. To achieve these sorts of returns, REITs—particularly agency […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    MBA Refinance Index continues to fall

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index to forecast mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Productivity
    Financials

    Non-farm productivity increases in Q1

    Productivity is a measure of output per unit of labor  Productivity increases allow wage increases without increasing inflation. The sister index to productivity is unit labor costs, and, unsurprisingly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases them together. Non-farm productivity is calculated by dividing an index of output by an index of hours worked. Productivity growth […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NLY book value
    Earnings Report

    How’s Annaly Capitalizing on Commercial Real Estate?

    By investing in commercial real estate, Annaly Capital is increasing its returns. At the same time, it’s taking on credit risk.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///AGNC leverage
    Earnings Report

    Why Did American Capital Agency Increase Its Leverage?

    American Capital Agency increased its “at risk” leverage ratio in 1Q16. It funded its balance sheet with ~$41.9 billion in repurchase agreements.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///AGNC Book Value Per Share
    Earnings Report

    AGNC’s Book Value per Share Rose despite the Brexit Vote

    American Capital Agency’s book value per share rose from $22.09 in 1Q16 to $22.22 in 2Q16—the first increase in the book value per share in six quarters.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///AGNC Book Value Per Share
    Earnings Report

    American Capital Agency Saw another Drop in Book Value per Share

    American Capital Agency’s (AGNC) book value per share fell from $22.59 in the fourth quarter of 2015 to $22.09 in the first quarter. Why?

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Fannie Mae TBAs sell off with bonds: What you need to know

    The Fannie Mae 3.5% TBA started the week at 105 22/32 and gave up 22 ticks to close at 105. The ten-year yield increased 32 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///AGNC Q portfolio
    Earnings Report

    Why American Capital Agency shortened duration during the quarter

    As one of the largest agency REITs, American Capital Agency (AGNC) invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities that are guaranteed by the US government.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae securities rally, driving mortgage REITs

    The ten-year bond sold off, with yields increasing from 2.16% to 2.25%. Ginnie Mae TBAs rallied to close at 104-19.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Shrug Off the Bond Market Sell-off

    Ginnie Mae TBAs are where government loans go, such as the federal housing administration and veterans affairs loans.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Not Immune To Bond Market Sell-off

    The ten-year bond had a big sell-off, with yields decreasing from 2.16% to 2.34%. Ginnie Mae TBAs fell as well, dropping from 104 19/32 to 104 7/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ADP Payrolls
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    ADP Payroll Report Is Published: Are Forecasts For Friday Too High?

    If the payroll numbers on Friday come in better than expected, a sell-off in bonds can raise interest rates further as investors bet on recovery and the the timing of “normalization,” the Fed’s term for raising rates off the zero bound.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Unemployment Rate
    Financials

    Must-know: Why the unemployment rate matters to mortgage REITs

    The unemployment rate is probably the most visible and important economic indicator in the U.S. People’s perception of the health of the economy is driven first and foremost by unemployment.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinance applications fall in spite of lower rates

    The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (or MBA) refinance index fell 0.3% (from 1,297.5 to 1,293) even as the bond market rallied 4 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Why Ginnie Mae TBAs rally with the bond market

    The biggest difference between a Fannie Mae mortgage-backed securities (or MBS) and a Ginnie Mae MBS is that Ginnie’s have an explicit guarantee from the federal government. Fannies don’t have a guarantee. However, there’s a “wink wink, nudge nudge” guarantee.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NLY dividend
    Financials

    Annaly CEO Wellington Denahan shares her vision for the future

    On the company’s conference call to analysts and investors, Annaly CEO Wellington Denahan addressed the current interest rate environment and where she saw the company heading in the future.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
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