Key Mobility Shifts Shaping North America in 2026–2028

As technology and customer expectations evolve, the North American mobility market is entering a decade of accelerated transformation. McKinsey warns that the change ahead will exceed that of the past 50 years. We’re about to watch the growth of electrification, AI in mobility, integrated mobility platforms, and previously unseen platform capabilities.

This transformation is already visible in North America, which is setting the trend for the rest of the world. North America is leading the change with high smartphone penetration, early adoption of ridesharing, and strong investment in autonomous technologies. By 2028, the combination of these forces is expected to reshape all mobility, including but not limited to passenger transport, delivery, and specialized segments such as NEMT.

For investors, this shift opens up opportunities in app-based services, especially in regional or niche markets where big TNCs have trouble operating.

Onde conducted the US mobility industry research, which includes insights from industry leaders at The Transportation Alliance and speakers at the Mobilize 2025 conference, as well as the most up-to-date industry statistics. This report looks at trends in the North American mobility industry and how they can create new investment opportunities.

Electrification is the primary focus of multiple industries at the moment, and it’s reshaping mobility fleets. Transportation companies expand and scale EV production: EV sales have already surged from 1.3 million in 2017 to a projected 3 million by 2020. At the moment, over 120 new EV models are released annually, and according to Gartner, over 50% of all vehicle models globally will be electric by 2030.

As battery prices decline and electric vehicles become more cost-effective, we expect the rise of all-EV fleets created by TNC operators and more specialised mobility services.

At the same time, an increasing number of cities are implementing sustainability mandates. For example, Major North American jurisdictions (NYC, California) have set 2030–2035 zero-emission mandates for TNC fleets. This has affected the TNCs worldwide and accelerated Uber and Lyft electrification.

Key takeaways for local mobility operators and investors:

• Local mobility businesses will face pressure to adopt electric vehicles from both the government and the users. For taxi companies that can’t afford the upfront cost of an all-electric fleet, financing or leasing programs can fill that gap.
• With the growth of EV fleets, the need for reliable charging will also grow. For investors, it’s an opportunity to look at what building charging stations can offer and earn from usage fees or long-term contracts.
• Electric NEMT and paratransit services are about to become more mainstream. They are often paid or reimbursed by healthcare networks and government programs, meaning stable revenue.
• Local EV-first operators now have the chance to take niche markets that large TNCs haven’t yet taken advantage of.

Rideshare remains strong in the cities and is growing in suburban, rural, and multimodal markets. U.S. ridesharing is already a $30B market, with 150%+ CAGR in major metro areas, and 10 U.S. cities generate $500M+ annually in ridesharing revenue. In the coming years, we expect the design change and the diversification of rideshare and TNC services. The most prominent will be:

• Adaptable vehicle interiors for families, groups, deliveries, and commuting.
• Greater emphasis on safety features (particularly for women, e.g., “Women-for-women” services).

Key takeaways for local mobility operators and investors:

• It’s high time for local ride-hailing platforms targeting suburban, rural, or culturally specific markets. Dan Reid, the president of Transportation Alliance, points out in his interview with Onde: the mobility market is getting bigger, allowing more companies to offer their services and benefit from standing out.
• Investors may want to prioritize safety-first brands with premium pricing and strong retention.
• Vehicle customization, service diversification, and focus on community-based services will help local mobility operators get their market share and successfully compete with TNCs.

Rideshare platforms are increasingly adding delivery to their services. For a long time now, Uber Eats, DoorDash Drive, and Instacart have been creating multimodal revenue ecosystems and influencing what we eat for dinner. According to Research Intelo, the global delivery market was worth USD 158.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 359.4 billion by 2033.

For multi‑service platforms that offer both rideshare and delivery services, delivery is increasingly becoming more profitable. In some quarters, delivery shows similar growth to mobility (e.g., Uber’s 2024 Q4), which suggests a shift towards delivery matching or even exceeding ride‑hailing growth.

Key takeaways for local mobility operators and investors:

• Turn your attention to multi-service mobility platforms offering rides, food, retail, and pharmacy delivery.
• It’s possible to monetize taxi off-peak hours if the app also offers delivery services.
• Last-mile logistics software tailored to small and mid-sized fleets might be an overlooked opportunity in the growing market.

Autonomous transit technologies, such as full robotaxi services and robo-buses, are moving from pilots into real‑world deployments across North America. For example, May Mobility is a vehicle operator that currently has a fleet of autonomous Toyota Sienna minivans. The company works in business districts, college campuses, and closed residential communities, such as Sun City, a retirement community outside of Phoenix.

For those living in the U.S., autonomous mobility is just around the corner. North America currently holds the largest revenue share (about 35%) of the on‑demand autonomous transit market. The autonomous shuttle and minibus segment in North America is also expected to grow significantly in the upcoming years. Reed Intelligence projects the local autonomous shuttle market increasing from about USD 380 million in 2025 to USD 1.82 billion by 2030. And according to McKinsey, global AV revenues in urban settings could reach $1.6 trillion annually by 2030.

Key takeaways for local mobility operators and investors:

• Focus on controlled environments: campuses, airports, and retirement communities are ideal for early autonomous shuttle deployments.
• Hybrid human-autonomous models are the near-term opportunity. They improve reliability and reduce costs before full autonomy scales.
• Invest in complementary infrastructure and services: fleet management, AI monitoring, charging, and maintenance offer scalable revenue.
• Engage with regulators early: securing permits and contracts creates a competitive advantage.

AI is a worldwide trend and has infiltrated most industries. Mobility is not only not an exception; on the contrary, it’s at the forefront of AI integration.

With AI, mobility operators now have the option to simplify the increasingly complex challenges in fleet management and meet and even exceed customer expectations. They can use the ocean of data from vehicles, drivers, and passengers to improve their services and optimize operations. At the moment, 60% of transportation companies have integrated AI into operations, and 80% expect a significant impact within five years.

Here are just some things AI can do for mobility businesses:

• Allow accurate voice booking
• Alert imbalances in customer vs. driver availability
• Identify driver cancellation hotspots
• Detect anomalies in driver behavior
• Predict maintenance issues
• Recommend nearby services (e.g., events, restaurants, pharmacies)
• Optimize dispatching and routes (Route optimization that uses AI reduces fuel use and delivery times by 20–30%)
• Offer personal assistance services that act as a concierge
• Offer multilingual call center support

Various TNCs are already experimenting with AI and developing their own tools to get the most out of new technology. Uber’s machine learning platform Michelangelo helps with rider‑driver matching, ETA estimation, and demand forecasting. Uber claims that ML models already contribute to reducing driver idle times.

As of 2026, however, AI still has significant limitations. AI systems may hallucinate and misinterpret data patterns, resulting in showing incorrect recommendations. Human oversight is still critical to verify forecasts, analysis, and recommendations that AI has.

Key takeaways for local mobility operators and investors:

• Use AI to improve efficiency: fleet management, routing, and scheduling can be optimized to save time and reduce costs.
• Invest in AI-enabled services: specialized services like NEMT or paratransit benefit from AI-driven safety, compliance, and operational improvements.
• Partner with larger platforms: offering AI-powered solutions or localized support can create revenue-sharing opportunities with TNCs.
• Early adoption creates an advantage: companies integrating AI now can scale faster and differentiate from competitors.

North America’s mobility sector is entering a phase of capital reallocation and platform evolution. Electrification, delivery integration, AI automation, and autonomous transit are unlocking multi-billion-dollar opportunities across ride-hailing, logistics, public transit, and healthcare transportation.

While large platforms will continue to scale, the most attractive investment opportunities lie in localized, technology-enabled operators and infrastructure providers that serve unmet community needs. For investors, the next wave of mobility growth will not only come from global platforms, but from the ecosystems built around them and the local operators they cannot replace.