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Marathon Petroleum’s Stock Trend until the End of Q2


Jun. 10 2019, Updated 1:30 p.m. ET

Marathon Petroleum’s stock forecast

We’ll discuss Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) implied volatility to forecast its stock price range until the end of the second quarter.

The implied volatility in Marathon Petroleum has risen by seven percentage points since April 1 to the current level of 36%. During the same period, Marathon Petroleum stock has fallen 20%. The implied volatility in Marathon Petroleum and its stock price moved inversely in the second quarter.

Considering Marathon Petroleum’s implied volatility of 36% and assuming a normal distribution of prices and standard deviation of one with a probability of 68.2%, Marathon Petroleum’s stock price could close between $52.4 per share and $43.8 per share in the next 22 days ending June 28.

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Peers’ implied volatility

The implied volatility in Phillips 66 (PSX), Valero Energy (VLO), and Delek US Holdings (DK) has risen by two percentage points, five percentage points, and five percentage points, respectively, since April 1. Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Delek US Holdings’ stock prices have fallen 11%, 12%, and 4%, respectively, during the stated period. The implied volatility and stock prices have moved in opposite directions. Currently, the implied volatility in Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Delek US Holdings is 24%, 33%, and 42%, respectively.

We’ll discuss the changes in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY) implied volatility and values. DIA and SPY resemble the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index, respectively.

Since April 1, the implied volatility in DIA and SPY has risen by two percentage points to the current level of 14% each. In the second quarter, DIA’s value has fallen 1%, while SPY’s value has risen 1%.


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