Valero Energy’s stock forecast
So far, Valero Energy (VLO) stock has fallen in the second quarter. The stock has moved below its 50-day moving average. Now, we’ll estimate how Valero Energy stock could trend for the rest of the second quarter. We’ll discuss Valero Energy’s current implied volatility to forecast its stock price range until June 28.
The implied volatility in Valero Energy has risen by three percentage points since April 1 to the current level of 31%. During the same period, Valero Energy stock has fallen 10%. Valero Energy’s implied volatility and stock price have moved inversely in the second quarter.
Considering Valero Energy’s implied volatility of 31% and assuming a normal distribution of prices and one standard deviation with a probability of 68.2%, Valero Energy’s stock price could close between $83.4 per share and $69.0 per share for the next 35 days ending June 28.
Peers’ implied volatility
The implied volatility in Phillips 66 (PSX), Delek US Holdings (DK), and HollyFrontier (HFC) has risen by three percentage points, two percentage points, and three percentage points, respectively, since April 1. Currently, the implied volatility in Phillips 66, Delek US Holdings, and HollyFrontier is 25%, 39%, and 36%, respectively.
If we review their stock prices, then Phillips 66, Delek US Holdings, and HollyFrontier have fallen 13%, 6%, and 17%, respectively, since April 1. Refining stocks and their implied volatilities have moved in opposite directions in the second quarter.