17 Apr

What to Expect from ConocoPhillips’ Q1 Earnings

WRITTEN BY Rabindra Samanta

Oil prices and ConocoPhillips’ earnings

ConocoPhillips’ (COP) adjusted EPS might fall ~24% in the first quarter on a sequential basis based on analysts’ consensus estimate for an adjusted EPS of $0.86. During the same period, Brent crude oil prices fell 6.9% on a sequential basis—an important factor that might drag ConocoPhillips’ earnings. In the first quarter, ConocoPhillips’ total production is expected to fall ~3.5% based on the company’s guidance midpoint compared to the previous quarter due to its reduced production in Qatar and Canada.

ConocoPhillips operated with a production mix of 65.8% in liquids the previous quarter. Liquids include crude oil, bitumen, and natural gas liquids. ConocoPhillips is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings on April 30. The following graph shows how oil prices impacted the company’s earnings.

What to Expect from ConocoPhillips’ Q1 Earnings

Sign up for Bagels & Stox, our witty take on the top market and investment news, straight to your inbox! Whether you’re a serious investor or just want to be informed, Bagels & Stox will be your favorite email.

Lower natural gas prices

ConocoPhillips operated with a production mix of 34.2% in natural gas in the fourth quarter of 2018. The company’s net income has a sensitivity of $30 million–$40 million per 25 cents per thousand cubic feet change in Henry Hub natural gas prices. In the first quarter, Henry Hub natural gas prices were ~23.1% lower than the previous quarter, which might drag ConocoPhillips’ earnings.

Peers’ expectations

EOG Resources (EOG), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), and Concho Resources (CXO) are the S&P 500 Index’s (SPY) largest holdings in the upstream subsector. The companies might report a downside of 23.4%, 38.5%, 31.6%, and 11.7% in the first-quarter earnings on a sequential basis. ConocoPhillips might report the third-largest fall in earnings among SPY’s top-five holdings in the upstream subsector.

Latest articles

Tesla (TSLA) stock short sellers seem to be getting exasperated. Notably, Tesla stock has been the short sellers’ favorite.

In the week that ended on November 15, natural gas prices fell 3.5% and settled at 2.688 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).

The Dow Jones Index (DIA) and S&P 500 (SPY) are trading at record highs and on Friday the Dow Jones crossed the 28,000 level for the first time.

Goldman Sachs (GS) settled a lawsuit that alleged it rigged bond prices. Also, Deutsche Bank agreed to pay a fine of $15 million to settle a lawsuit.

In the November 15 premarket trading session, Amarin Corporation (AMRN) stock rose more than 7%, caused by the FDA positive decision for Vascepa.

In the November 14 trading session, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) stock fell 12.7% from the previous session during after-hours trading.