What Analysts Expect from Trulieve’s Revenue in 2018 and 2019



Current operations

Trulieve Cannabis (TRUL) (TCNNF) is a vertically integrated cannabis company that’s involved in cultivation, processing, and distribution activities.

On January 14, 2019, Trulieve opened its 24th dispensary in Florida in St. John’s County. Apart from dispensaries, the company also serves patients in Florida with its home delivery service. The company has also acquired an 80% interest in Leef Industries and has received approval from the City of Palm Springs, California, for the transfer of dispensary permits from Leef Industries.

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As of November 19, Trulieve operated 500,000 square feet of cultivation facilities across three sites that can produce 19,429 kilograms of cannabis annually. During its third-quarter earnings call on November 19, the company’s management stated that the company plans to increase its production capacity to 29,644 kilograms per year by the end of 2018 with the completion of an additional 127,400 square feet of cultivation, which has been under construction.

Trulieve has over 120 SKUs (stock keeping units) available in flower pods for vaporizing, concentrates, topicals, capsules, tinctures, and vape cartridges. Trulieve’s products are distributed across its dispensaries and through its home delivery service.

Analysts’ revenue estimates

In the first three quarters of 2018, Trulieve posted revenue of $66.9 million, which represents a rise of 923% from $6.5 million in the corresponding three quarters of 2017. The revenue growth was driven by growth in retail sales due to the opening of new dispensaries.

In the fourth quarter, analysts are expecting Trulieve to post revenue of $32.5 million to take the company’s 2018 revenue to $99.3 million, which represents growth of 402% from $19.78 million in 2017. For 2019, analysts are expecting the company’s revenue to rise by 119.2% to $217.7 million.

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Peer comparisons

During the first three quarters of 2018, Trulieve’s peers CannTrust (CNTTF), Planet 13 Holdings (PLTH) (PLNHF), and Curaleaf Holdings (CURA) (CURLF) have posted revenue growth of 114.9%, 130.2%, and 246.1%, respectively.

Analysts’ adjusted EBITDA estimates

In the first three quarters of 2018, Trulieve posted adjusted EBITDA of $30.3 million. Analysts expect the company to post adjusted EBITDA of $43.3 million in 2018, and $95.9 million in 2019.

Next, we will look at analysts’ recommendations and Trulieve’s valuation multiple.


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