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What Analysts Expect from Starbucks’s Revenue in 2019

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Analysts’ expectations

For fiscal 2019, analysts expect Starbucks (SBUX) to post revenue of $26.13 billion, a rise of 5.7% from $24.72 billion in fiscal 2018.

For the same period, Starbucks’s management expects its consolidated revenue to rise 5%–7%, including a 2.0% fall from streamline-related activities. Management also expects the company to open 2,100 new restaurants, while they expect its SSSG (same-store sales growth) to be at the lower end of the 3%–5% guidance range. Of these 2,100 new restaurants, 1,100 are expected to open in the China/Asia-Pacific region, with 600 expected to open in China. Management also plans to open 600 restaurants in the Americas and 400 restaurants in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

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Sales drivers

Starbucks’s Americas segment continues to focus on beverage innovation, operational excellence, the implementation of digital advancements, and the strengthening of its digital relationship with customers to drive its sales. The company plans to introduce Draft Nitro Cold Brew to all its company-operated restaurants by the end of fiscal 2019.

After testing its delivery service in Miami and China, the company plans to introduce the service in 2,000 restaurants early next year by partnering with Uber Eats. Management has also stated that the company will continue to focus on drive-through restaurants in fiscal 2019.

In August, Starbucks’s China/Asia-Pacific segment announced a collaboration in August with Alibaba’s ecosystem (BABA), which includes Ele.me, Hema, Tmall, Taobao, and Alipay, to enhance customers’ digital experience. As part of the partnership, Starbucks started a delivery service at 150 restaurants in Beijing and Shanghai as a pilot project in September. Now, Starbucks has expanded the service to 2,000 restaurants across 30 cities in China. The company has also opened its first Virtual Starbucks store in collaboration with Alibaba, which will allow customers to experience Starbucks’s digital offerings from either the Starbucks app or Alibaba’s mobile apps.

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Along with these initiatives, Starbucks continues to enhance the customer experience with its Starbucks Reserve Roasteries. The company opened its third roastery in Milan, Italy, on September 6, and its fourth roastery in New York on December 14. The company has also scheduled the opening of roasteries in Tokyo and Chicago for 2019.

Peer comparison

During the same period, Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN) is expected to post revenue growth of 11.2%, while McDonald’s (MCD) revenue is expected to fall 2.2%. Next, we’ll look at Starbucks’s EBIT margin in fiscal 2018.

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