uploads///EBITDA Estimates

How Analysts Expect Gold Miners’ Earnings to Progress


Dec. 4 2020, Updated 10:53 a.m. ET

Analysts’ earnings expectations

Now that we’ve considered analysts’ revenue estimates for the senior gold miners under review (GDX) in this series, let’s take a look at analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

Along with the expected fall in Barrick Gold’s (ABX) 2018 revenue, analysts expect a fall in its EBITDA. The expected fall in its EBITDA, however, is much larger. ABX’s EBITDA is expected to fall 19.7% YoY (year-over-year) to $3.2 billion most likely due to higher estimates for costs, in line with the actual cost increases recorded by the company.

Newmont Mining’s (NEM) EBITDA is expected to fall 9.0% YoY to $2.4 billion in 2018. As we learned in the previous part of this series, Newmont expects a fall in production and a YoY rise in costs in 2018, driving its EBITDA to fall more quickly than its revenue.

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Kinross Gold and Goldcorp

In contrast to other miners, analysts expect higher YoY EBITDA for Kinross Gold (KGC) in 2018. Its EBITDA is expected to rise 10.3% to $1.2 billion. Analysts bumped up their estimates after the company’s first-quarter results due to its better-than-expected cost performance. It’s expected to report a margin of 36.6% in 2018 compared to 32.8% in 2017.

Analysts also expect a 3.6% YoY increase in Goldcorp’s (GG) EBITDA in 2018. This expectation is in line with the company’s expected rise in revenue.


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