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What Will Drive Shake Shack’s Revenue in 4Q17?

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Feb. 13 2018, Published 8:43 a.m. ET

Revenue expectations

In 4Q17, analysts expect Shake Shack (SHAK) to post revenue of $92.9 million, a rise of 26.8% from its revenue of $73.3 million in 4Q16. This revenue growth is expected to be driven by the company’s addition of new restaurants.

By the end of 4Q17, Shake Shack operated 160 restaurants, including 90 company-owned restaurants, ten domestic franchised restaurants, and 60 international franchised restaurants. Compared to 4Q16, the company operated 26 more company-owned restaurants, three more domestic franchised restaurants, and 17 more international franchised restaurants by the end of 4Q17. These new additions are expected to drive the company’s revenue.

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After posting a strong performance in 3Q17, the company raised its 2017 SSSG (same-store sales growth) guidance from a fall of 2%–3% to a fall of 1.5%–2%. The company’s SSSG is expected to be driven by the introduction of new menu items, such as chili, burgers, hot dogs, and fries, and the enhancement of the customer experience through the implementation of digital advancements.

Peer comparison

During the same period, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) posted a revenue rise of 7.2%. Analysts expect Wendy’s (WEN) and Jack in the Box (JACK) to post revenue rises of 1.3% and -41.8%, respectively.

Outlook

For the four quarters from 4Q17 to 3Q18, analysts expect Shake Shack to post revenue of $429.5 million, which represents a rise of 27.8% compared to the corresponding four quarters of the previous year. This revenue growth is expected to be driven by the company’s addition of new restaurants. SHAK’s management expects to open 32–35 company-owned restaurants in 2018, with most openings to come in the latter half of the year.

Next, we’ll look at analysts’ earnings estimates for 4Q17.

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