Total’s stock performance in 4Q17
Total (TOT) stock stands third among the ten integrated energy stocks in our survey. Total ranks just ahead of PetroChina (PTR) in the top order of these stocks. Total is followed by middle-order stocks Statoil (STO), Chevron (CVX), and ExxonMobil (XOM). Let’s look at Total’s stock performance.
Total stock has risen 4.9% since October 2, 2017, underperforming the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA). DIA has risen 9.0% during the same period. Among the middle-order stocks, STO, CVX, and XOM have risen 3.6%, 1.9%, and 1.4%, respectively, in 4Q17 so far.
Total moving averages
In 4Q17, Total’s 50-day moving average (or 50 DMA) has stayed above its 200-day moving average (or 200 DMA), after crossing over in 3Q17. The crossover was a positive technical indicator.
TOT’s 50 DMA stood 1.8% above its 200 DMA on October 2. However, as Total stock rose, its 50 DMA rose steeply in 4Q17. Currently, TOT’s 50 DMA stands 5.8% above its 200 DMA.
Why the rise in Total stock?
Total stock’s correlation coefficient versus WTI for the last one-year period, stood at 0.45, implying a positive correlation. WTI prices rose 13.0% in 3Q17, which could have supported the stock.
In 4Q17, Total reported improved 9M17 numbers. Total posted a 31.0% year-over-year rise in net adjusted earnings to $7.7 billion in 9M17. Total’s adjusted operating earnings rose 27.0% YoY to $8.6 billion in 9M17.
This increase was due to an increase in E&P (exploration and production) and M&S (marketing and services) earnings. However, this increase was partially offset by a fall in GRP (gas, renewables, and power) and R&C (refining and chemical) earnings.
In 4Q17, a series of events affected Total stock. Total (TOT) announced the sale of its fuel marketing and refining assets in the joint venture TotalErg in Italy. However, the company has increased its stake in the lubricants assets in the country.
In 4Q17, Total reported the startup of the mega Libra field in Brazil. Petrobras (PBR) and Shell (RDS.A) also have stakes in this field.
Total ranked as the second-largest LNG (liquefied natural gas) player globally with the acquisition of Engie’s upstream LNG portfolio. Total’s Yamal LNG project, one of the largest global gas projects, shipped its first LNG cargo in 4Q17.
In the next part, we’ll consider the stock returns of PetroChina (PTR), the final stock in the top order of the top ten integrated energy stocks.