RECENT Real Estate RESEARCH
In September 2017, US housing starts fell from an upwardly revised August number of 1.183 million to 1.127 million units—a negative surprise.
We’re nearing the end of August—many investment professionals will be watching markets from the beach. The second revision to Q2 GDP will be out on Friday.
In July, the Northeast saw housing starts jump from 116,000 to 134,000, while starts rose from 171,000 to 175,000 in the Midwest.
The CPI (consumer price inflation), published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, remained unchanged in July. The energy index fell by 1.6% in July.
In July 2016, non-farm payrolls rose by 255,000. Non-farm payrolls easily topped Wall Street analysts’ estimate of 185,000.
In the quarter ending June 30, construction spending as a percentage of GDP slipped to 6.1%. Over the past 50 years, the average has been closer to 8.4%.
In June 2016, housing starts rose from 1.1 million to ~1.2 million. We also saw increases in both single-family and multifamily starts.
PulteGroup (PHM) reported 2Q16 revenues of $1.8 billion—a 41% increase from a year ago. Revenues increased in home sales and financial services.
Fannie Mae’s monthly National Housing Survey asked respondents if it’s a good time to buy and sell a house. They’re more confident that it’s a good time to sell.
In May, the total foreclosure inventory fell 25% from a year ago to 390,000 homes. It takes us back to the levels in late 2007.
This week is relatively data-light. However, a slew of reports will interest real estate investors.
In the quarter ending March 31, construction spending as a percentage of the GDP was flat at 6.2%. This was a big rise from a year ago when it was 5.7%.
New home sales increased to an annualized pace of 551,000—up 8.7% from the same month last year. They were also down about 6% sequentially from April.
At the end of May, there were 2.15 million existing homes for sale. This represents a 4.7-month supply. A level of six to 6.5 months means a balanced market.
For 2Q16, KB Home reported revenues of $811 million, which easily topped the Wall Street estimate consensus of $750 million. Revenues increased by 30% YoY.
In May 2016, non-farm payrolls rose by 38,000, which missed Wall Street analysts’ estimate of 160,000 by a wide margin.
Toll Brothers (TOL) reported fiscal 2Q16 revenues of $1.1 billion. Deliveries in the second quarter rose 31% in dollar terms and 9% in units.
On Friday, May 27, we’ll get the second revision to 1Q16 GDP. Wall Street is forecasting the number to come in at 0.9%.
Foreclosure completions rose by 2,000 units to 36,000 in March 2016, according to CoreLogic. Completions fell 15% year-over-year.
In the quarter ending March 31, construction spending as a percentage of the GDP was flat at 6.2%. This was a big rise from 5.7% a year ago.