VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETN

In 2Q17, Marathon Oil’s (MRO) production mix from continuing operations was ~47.0% crude oil and condensate, ~15.0% natural gas liquids, and ~38.0% natural gas.

On February 14, WTI crude oil (USO) (USL) (OIIL) (SCO) active futures traded at a discount of $2.84 per barrel compared to Brent crude oil active futures.

When asked about which sector he is bearish on during an interview with CNBC, Bill Miller said that he is bearish on oil stocks.

According to the EIA’s (US Energy Information Administration) report on January 18, 2017, US crude oil inventories rose ~2.35 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ended January 13, 2017.

According to the EIA’s report on January 4, 2017, US crude oil inventories fell ~7.1 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ended December 30, 2016.

According to Marc Lasry, heavy oil-weighted (USO) (UCO) (UWTI) stocks could be a better bet in the overall energy sector.

The US crude oil rig count was 477 in the week ended December 2, 2016, a rise of three rigs compared to the previous week.

From November 28 to December 5, 2016, an equally weighted basket of oil stocks rose 15.8% compared to a 10.0% rise in WTI crude oil futures contracts for January.

On December 5, 2016, WTI crude oil January contracts closed at $51.79 per barrel. Optimism after OPEC’s deal fueled bullish sentiments among traders.

US crude oil inventories rose 5.3 MMbbls (million barrels) in the week ended November 11, 2016.

Optimism around OPEC’s deal fueled bullish sentiments among traders and helped oil prices continue their upturn.

On November 9, 2016, after Trump’s victory, both crude oil and energy stocks recovered, along with the broader markets. US crude oil active futures rose 0.60%.

US crude oil rose on November 18 due to the market’s belief that OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) members might cut their output.

Hedge funds decreased their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options contracts to a nine-week low for the week ending November 8, 2016.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US gasoline inventories rose by 0.7 MMbbls to 221.7 MMbbls from November 4–11, 2016.

December gasoline futures fell 0.8% to $1.32 per gallon on November 16, 2016. Prices fell due to an unexpected rise in US gasoline inventories.

The US crude oil rig count was at 452 in the week ending November 11—a rise of two rigs compared to the previous week’s count, according to Baker Hughes.

On November 14, 2016, the WTI crude oil December contracts closed at $43.32 per barrel. The contracts were ~0.2% lower than the previous closing price.

At 1:09 PM EST on November 9, 2016, US crude oil active futures were trading at $45.69 per barrel, 1.6% above the previous day’s closing price.

In the three months following US presidential elections, US crude oil (UWTI) active futures fell in two out of three instances between 2004 and 2012.

Baker Hughes released its weekly US crude oil rig count. The US crude oil rig count rose by nine to 450 rigs between October 28 and November 4.

US (VFINX) (VOO) non-farm payrolls rose by 161,000 in October 2016, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report released on November 4, 2016.

US crude oil (UWTI) (USO) (OIIL) (USL) (SCO) (DWTI) December futures fell 9.5% in the week ending November 4, 2016, on a closing price basis.

On October 31, 2016, the WTI crude oil December contracts closed at $46.86 per barrel. The contracts were ~3.8% lower than the previous closing price.

Crude oil’s (UWTI) (USO) (OIIL) (USL) (SCO) (DWTI) implied volatility was 35.4% on October 28, 2016. Its 15-day average implied volatility is 31.6%.

On October 24, the WTI crude oil December contracts closed at $50.52 per barrel. Oil prices fell due to growing doubts about OPEC’s recent deal.

On October 14, 2016, the CFTC reported that hedge funds increased their net long position in US natural gas futures and options contracts for the third time in the last five weeks.

The EIA reported that the four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 36,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,296,000 bpd between September 30 and October 7, 2016.

On October 14, 2016, Baker Hughes (BHI) released its weekly US crude oil rig count. It reported that the US crude oil rig count rose by four to 432 rigs from October 7–14, 2016.

According to the Energy Information Administration report on October 12, US crude oil inventories rose by 4.9 MMbbls for the week ending October 7.

PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose 1.7% from October 6–12, 2016. It’s a key bullish driver for natural gas prices.

Investors have once again flocked to bonds, the Japanese yen, and gold due to the 10.0% fall in China’s exports and concerns over a major rejig by the central banks.

The fall in oil prices on October 11 coincides with the market’s doubts about the execution of the output limit deal among OPEC members on September 28.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for November delivery fell 1.1% and closed at $50.79 per barrel on October 11, 2016.

According to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) report on October 5, 2016, US crude oil inventories fell 3.0 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ended September 30, 2016.

Hedge funds increased their net long position in US natural gas futures and options contracts by 12,456 contracts to 124,065 contracts from September 20–27.

US crude oil (USO) (USL) (OIIL) (DWTI) (UWTI) (SCO) futures contracts for November delivery rose ~9% between September 27 and October 4, 2016.

From September 22–29, 2016, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 1.6%. It was the only gainer among the SPDR ETFs that we’re covering.

Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2016 year-end target for crude oil (USO) (BNO) from $50 per barrel to $43 per barrel.

According to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) report on September 21, 2016, US crude oil inventories fell by 6.2 MMbbls.

US crude oil November futures rose 2% in the week ending September 23. WTI crude closed at $44.48 per barrel that day—a ~4% fall from the previous day.

October NY Harbor ULSD futures rose 1.7% on September 21, 2016. Diesel futures rose despite the larger-than-expected rise in distillate inventories.

According to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) report on September 14, 2016, US crude oil inventories fell 0.6 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending September 9.

The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories rose by 600,000 barrels to 228.4 MMbbls (million barrels) from September 2–9, 2016.

The EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices were down 0.4% to $2.39 per gallon on September 12, 2016—compared to the previous week.

According to the EIA’s report on September 8, 2016, US crude oil inventories fell by 14.5 MMbbls for the week ended on September 2, 2016.

The EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices were down 0.1% to $2.40 per gallon on September 5, 2016—compared to the previous week.

Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) 2Q16 revenue fell by ~48.2% YoY. Its YoY revenue growth was -21% in 2Q15 and -44% in 1Q16.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose by 3,000 barrels per day to 10.7 MMbpd in August 2016. Its crude oil production hit an all-time high in August 2016.

The EIA reported that the four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 6,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,770,000 bpd from August 5–12, 2016.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 2,700,000 barrels to 232.7 MMbbls from August 5–12, 2016.

On August 17, the EIA released its “This Week in Petroleum” report. US on-highway diesel fuel prices were down 0.25% to $2.31 per gallon on August 15, 2016.

According to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) report on August 10, 2016, US crude oil inventories rose by 1.1 MMbbls (million barrels) in the week ended August 5.

Russia (RSX) is an oil-dependent economy. The crude oil (USO) (UWTI) (UCO) downturn started in June 2014.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that the four-week average US gasoline demand was almost flat at 9,751,000 bpd (barrels per day) for the week ending July 29, 2016.

On August 3, the EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices fell by 1.3% to $2.35 per gallon on August 1, 2016—compared to the previous week.

The EIA reported that US gasoline demand rose by 12,000 bpd to 9.8 MMbpd between July 15 and July 22. It rose by 0.12% week-over-week and 4.9% YoY.

Gasoline production increased due to lower crude oil prices in 2015 and 1H16. This stemmed from higher refinery margins for oil refiners.

Citigroup estimates that global gasoline inventories stand at 500 (million barrels. Record gasoline inventories have pressured gasoline prices.

The EIA estimates that on-highway diesel fuel prices will average $2.36 per gallon in 2016 and $2.71 per gallon in 2017.

According to the July 20, 2016, U.S. Energy Information Administration report, US crude oil inventories declined by 2.3 MMbbls for the week ended July 15, 2016.

The EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices fell 0.37% at $2.41 per gallon on July 11, 2016, compared to the previous week. Prices fell for the fourth straight week.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s report on June 29, 2016, US crude oil inventories fell by 4.1 MMbbls in the week ended June 24, 2016.

The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories rose by 1.4 MMbbls (million barrels) to 239 MMbbls for the week ending June 24, 2016.

Pioneer Natural Resources’ free cash flow as normalized to total production declined substantially in the last quarter. This was mainly due to the much lower operating cash flows.

According to the EIA’s report, US crude oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels for the week ended June 3, 2016.

Manufacturing activity in Canada saw a steep decline as the Ivey PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) fell to 49.4 in May from 53.1 in April.

Excluding the effect of hedges, Devon Energy’s (DVN) average realized crude oil and bitumen price in 1Q16 was $20.06 per barrel, down by ~43% from $35.17 per barrel in 1Q15.

In 1Q16, Encana’s (ECA) production mix was ~66% natural gas, ~21% crude oil, and ~13% natural gas liquids. Its total liquids production was at ~34%.

Rubenstein believes that crude oil could rally to $70 per barrel next year since crude oil moves in a periodic manner. Once the downside period is over, he says the upside period will continue.

The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 2.5 MMbbls to 238.1 MMbbls for the week ending May 13. It’s the largest decline since April 8, 2016.

Some important economic indicators that were released last week include US crude oil inventories, US weekly jobless claims, US retail sales, and China’s industrial production.

Since January 2016, WPX Energy stock has been in a new uptrend. It’s clearly making a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

In this part of the series, we’ll look at some more bullish drivers for crude oil prices over the long term.

In the past year, the correlation rose between natural gas and crude oil. During August 2015 and December 2015, the 30-day correlation rose significantly.

The US crude oil inventory rose by 2.1 million barrels for the week ending April 15, 2016.

US crude oil stockpiles rose by 6.6 MMbbls in the week ending April 8, 2016—compared to the fall of 4.9 MMbbls in the prior week ending April 1, 2016.

The EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices fell marginally by 0.3% to $2.1 per gallon on April 4, 2016—compared to the previous week.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are both important to production freeze talks. Both countries have the option to expand their production capacities.

In 4Q15, Pioneer Natural Resources’ production mix was ~53% crude oil, ~19% natural gas liquids, and ~28% natural gas.

The EIA reported that US residential heating oil prices were almost flat at $2.13 per gallon on March 28—compared to March 21, 2016.

Reuters suggested that Brent prices will average ~$40 per barrel in 2016. The Bank of Abu Dhabi suggests that crude oil prices could test $20 per barrel in the short term.

The WTI crude oil futures for April 2016 rose by 5.5% and closed at $37.90 on March 7. In the last two trading sessions, WTI crude futures have been consolidating around $36–$38.

Crude oil prices rose more than 40% since the lows in February 2016. They entered into the short-term bull market. They’re still under a long-term bearish trend.

The consensus of slowing US crude oil production will continue to narrow the supply and demand gap as long as demand stays steady.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) depreciated against global currencies. It hit a two-week low. The US dollar fell by 0.2% on March 7, 2016.

On February 25, 2016, WTI crude oil futures for April closed at $33.07. The prices of $33.87 and $26 are crucial psychological price levels for crude oil.

Crude oil prices fell below the key psychological mark of $30 per barrel on February 19. The double bottom pattern suggests that crude oil prices could trend higher.

Crude oil’s forward curve suggests that crude oil prices could hit $40 per barrel in 2016. They may hit $52 per barrel by the end of 2024.

US gasoline production increased by 122,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9.7 MMbpd (million barrels per day) for the week ending February 12, 2016.

On February 18, 2016, the EIA reported that US crude oil imports rose by 0.8 MMbpd to 7.9 MMbpd for the week ending February 12, 2016.

The EIA released its “This Week in Petroleum” report on February 10. The US crude oil refinery demand fell by 105,000 bpd for the week ending February 5, 2016.

The EIA estimates that contango trade will be unviable until contango conditions reach $10–$12 per barrel. Citigroup suggests that if oil prices fall below $30 per barrel, it will be unviable to store crude oil at sea.

The record US crude oil imports are due to the low price of crude but also to the ties between large independent US refiners and Middle Eastern producers.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration stated that the US crude oil inventory rose by 4 MMbbls to 486.5 MMbbls for the week ending January 15, 2016.

Crude oil is trading close to the psychological mark of $30 per barrel, but the appreciating dollar and record supplies are putting pressure on oil prices.

The US dollar began 2016 on a bullish note and was trading at 99.5 levels in the early hours of trade on January 6. Crude prices began 2016 on a bearish note.

The US crude oil rig count fell by 64% in 2015. This was the biggest drop in the US crude oil rig count in the last 30 years.

The latest fund flow data suggest that around $24 billion has gone into oil ETFs in the last 18 months.

Jim Rogers says that oil prices are steady at $45 per barrel despite all of the negative news in the market. Prices rebounded and they could trend higher.