In 2Q17, Marathon Oil’s (MRO) production mix from continuing operations was ~47.0% crude oil and condensate, ~15.0% natural gas liquids, and ~38.0% natural gas.
On February 14, WTI crude oil (USO) (USL) (OIIL) (SCO) active futures traded at a discount of $2.84 per barrel compared to Brent crude oil active futures.
According to the EIA’s (US Energy Information Administration) report on January 18, 2017, US crude oil inventories rose ~2.35 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ended January 13, 2017.
From November 28 to December 5, 2016, an equally weighted basket of oil stocks rose 15.8% compared to a 10.0% rise in WTI crude oil futures contracts for January.
On November 9, 2016, after Trump’s victory, both crude oil and energy stocks recovered, along with the broader markets. US crude oil active futures rose 0.60%.
US crude oil rose on November 18 due to the market’s belief that OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) members might cut their output.
Hedge funds decreased their net long positions in US natural gas futures and options contracts to a nine-week low for the week ending November 8, 2016.
On November 14, 2016, the WTI crude oil December contracts closed at $43.32 per barrel. The contracts were ~0.2% lower than the previous closing price.
US (VFINX) (VOO) non-farm payrolls rose by 161,000 in October 2016, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report released on November 4, 2016.
On October 14, 2016, the CFTC reported that hedge funds increased their net long position in US natural gas futures and options contracts for the third time in the last five weeks.
The EIA reported that the four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 36,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,296,000 bpd between September 30 and October 7, 2016.
Investors have once again flocked to bonds, the Japanese yen, and gold due to the 10.0% fall in China’s exports and concerns over a major rejig by the central banks.
According to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) report on October 5, 2016, US crude oil inventories fell 3.0 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ended September 30, 2016.
Hedge funds increased their net long position in US natural gas futures and options contracts by 12,456 contracts to 124,065 contracts from September 20–27.
US crude oil November futures rose 2% in the week ending September 23. WTI crude closed at $44.48 per barrel that day—a ~4% fall from the previous day.
According to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) report on September 14, 2016, US crude oil inventories fell 0.6 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending September 9.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose by 3,000 barrels per day to 10.7 MMbpd in August 2016. Its crude oil production hit an all-time high in August 2016.
On August 17, the EIA released its “This Week in Petroleum” report. US on-highway diesel fuel prices were down 0.25% to $2.31 per gallon on August 15, 2016.
According to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) report on August 10, 2016, US crude oil inventories rose by 1.1 MMbbls (million barrels) in the week ended August 5.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that the four-week average US gasoline demand was almost flat at 9,751,000 bpd (barrels per day) for the week ending July 29, 2016.
According to the July 20, 2016, U.S. Energy Information Administration report, US crude oil inventories declined by 2.3 MMbbls for the week ended July 15, 2016.
The EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices fell 0.37% at $2.41 per gallon on July 11, 2016, compared to the previous week. Prices fell for the fourth straight week.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s report on June 29, 2016, US crude oil inventories fell by 4.1 MMbbls in the week ended June 24, 2016.
Pioneer Natural Resources’ free cash flow as normalized to total production declined substantially in the last quarter. This was mainly due to the much lower operating cash flows.
Excluding the effect of hedges, Devon Energy’s (DVN) average realized crude oil and bitumen price in 1Q16 was $20.06 per barrel, down by ~43% from $35.17 per barrel in 1Q15.
Rubenstein believes that crude oil could rally to $70 per barrel next year since crude oil moves in a periodic manner. Once the downside period is over, he says the upside period will continue.
In the past year, the correlation rose between natural gas and crude oil. During August 2015 and December 2015, the 30-day correlation rose significantly.
Reuters suggested that Brent prices will average ~$40 per barrel in 2016. The Bank of Abu Dhabi suggests that crude oil prices could test $20 per barrel in the short term.
The WTI crude oil futures for April 2016 rose by 5.5% and closed at $37.90 on March 7. In the last two trading sessions, WTI crude futures have been consolidating around $36–$38.
Crude oil prices rose more than 40% since the lows in February 2016. They entered into the short-term bull market. They’re still under a long-term bearish trend.
On February 25, 2016, WTI crude oil futures for April closed at $33.07. The prices of $33.87 and $26 are crucial psychological price levels for crude oil.
Crude oil prices fell below the key psychological mark of $30 per barrel on February 19. The double bottom pattern suggests that crude oil prices could trend higher.
The EIA released its “This Week in Petroleum” report on February 10. The US crude oil refinery demand fell by 105,000 bpd for the week ending February 5, 2016.
The EIA estimates that contango trade will be unviable until contango conditions reach $10–$12 per barrel. Citigroup suggests that if oil prices fall below $30 per barrel, it will be unviable to store crude oil at sea.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration stated that the US crude oil inventory rose by 4 MMbbls to 486.5 MMbbls for the week ending January 15, 2016.
Jim Rogers says that oil prices are steady at $45 per barrel despite all of the negative news in the market. Prices rebounded and they could trend higher.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for November delivery fell for the second day. Crude oil prices fell from the resistance of $47 per barrel.
October WTI crude oil futures rose for the first time after falling for two consecutive days. Slowing US crude oil production is driving crude oil prices.
Prices have been trading within a downward trending channel since early September 2015. The rising crude oil stockpile could put pressure on crude oil prices.
WTI crude oil futures for June delivery show the emergence of the gravestone doji pattern on May 7, 2015. The strong technical momentum could drive oil prices.
The US commercial crude oil inventory data will be reported by the EIA today. Prices may experience volatility due to inventory increasing more than market estimates.
The key support for WTI oil is at $48 per barrel. If crude oil breaks $48 per barrel, it will hit $42 per barrel. The US dollar will also put pressure on crude oil prices.
