Two Harbors Investment Corp

Most Recent

  • uploads///Fed  Unemployment Forecast
    Financials

    FOMC Minutes Discussed the Fed’s View of the Labor Market

    Some Fed members argued that while unemployment is low, the overall labor utilization rate is low. The Fed has more work to do to achieve full employment.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Bonds Rally on the Dovish July FOMC Minutes

    On August 17, 2016, the Fed released the minutes from the July FOMC meeting. Overall, bonds took the FOMC minutes to be relatively dovish.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Rise with the Bond Market

    The ten-year bond yield fell by 8 basis points to 1.51% for the week ending August 12, 2016. Ginnie Mae TBAs rose by 4 ticks and closed at 104 28/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBAs Rise with the Bond Market

    For the week ending August 12, 2016, Fannie Mae TBAs ended at 103 24/32—up 4 ticks for the week. The ten-year bond yield fell by 8 basis points to 1.51%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///foreclosure heat map
    Financials

    State Foreclosure Laws Impact Home Price Appreciation

    There are two basic types of state foreclosure laws—judicial and non-judicial. In non-judicial states, foreclosures are handled through a streamlined process.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Financials

    The Labor Force Participation Rate Increased in July

    In July 2016, the labor force participation rate rose to 62.8%—up 10 basis points from June. The labor force rose from 158.9 million to 159.3 million.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///AGNC leverage
    Earnings Report

    Why Did American Capital Agency Increase Its Leverage?

    American Capital Agency increased its “at risk” leverage ratio in 1Q16. It funded its balance sheet with ~$41.9 billion in repurchase agreements.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Nonfarm Payrolls
    Financials

    Jobs Report: Why It’s the Highlight of the Week

    There isn’t much real estate–related economic data this week. There are some important macro reports as well as the jobs report on Friday.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed funds dot graph Jun
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Bonds Rally on July FOMC Statement

    On July 27, 2016, the Fed ended its FOMC meeting without hiking the federal funds rate. The decision was unanimous with only Esther George dissenting.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Underperform Fannie Mae TBAs

    The ten-year bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.6% for the week ending July 22, 2016. Ginnie Mae TBAs fell by 6 ticks to close at 104 12/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///foreclosure heat map
    Financials

    Why Are State Foreclosure Laws Important?

    There are two basic types of state foreclosure laws—judicial and non-judicial. In non-judicial states, foreclosures are handled through a streamlined process.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Rising Bond Yields Cause Ginnie Mae TBAs to Fall

    Ginnie Mae and the TBA market The Fannie Mae TBA (to-be-announced) market represents the usual conforming loan—the plain Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage. When a mortgage banker makes a Veterans Affairs or Federal Housing Authority loan, that loan is securitized and put into a Ginnie Mae TBA. The biggest difference between Fannie Mae […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    How Fannie Mae TBAs Affect Mortgage REITs’ Capital Gains

    When the Fed talks about buying MBS (mortgage-backed securities), it’s referring to the TBA (to-be-announced) market.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Financials

    Labor Force Participation Rate Rose in June

    In June 2016, the labor force participation rate rose to 62.7%—up 10 basis points from May. The labor force rose from 158.5 million to 158.9 million.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  Inflation forecast
    Financials

    Why Did the Fed Increase Its Inflation Forecast?

    The Fed has been consistently high in its inflation forecasts. At the June 2016 FOMC meeting, the Fed took up its 2016 inflation forecast from 1.6% to 1.7%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    Why Did Bonds Barely React to the FOMC Minutes?

    On July 6, the Fed released the minutes from the June FOMC meeting. The Brexit vote mainly overshadowed anything that came out of the June FOMC meeting.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    How Much Did Mortgage Refinance Applications Fall Last Week?

    Mortgage refinance applications, as measured by the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) Refinance Index, fell last week. Since mid-2013, refinances have been dropping dramatically.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Mortgage Apps
    Financials

    Mortgage Applications Fell on the Brexit Vote

    Mortgage applications fell 2.6% last week after rising 2.9% the week before. Rates were increasing for most of the week, only to fall on Friday on the Brexit vote.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Labor Force Participation Rate Heads Back Down Again

    In May 2016, the labor force participation rate fell to 62.6%, down 20 basis points from April.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Employment Cost Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Employment Costs Rise with Healthcare Inflation

    Employment costs rose 0.6% in the quarter ending March 31, 2016. Over the past 12 months, compensation costs for civilian workers have risen 1.9%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Mortgage Apps
    Company & Industry Overviews

    The FOMC Notes That Credit Conditions Are Improving Slightly

    The FOMC staff economists said that financial market conditions have improved further since the March meeting.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  Inflation forecast
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Why Inflation Remains Too Low for the Fed

    At the March 2016 FOMC meeting, the Fed took down its 2016 inflation forecast from 1.6% to 1.2%. The stronger dollar is affecting commodity prices and imports, and that’s keeping a lid on inflation.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  GDP forecast
    Company & Industry Overviews

    The FOMC Notes That Economic Growth Has Begun to Decelerate

    According to the April FOMC minutes, the staff believes that GDP growth has begun to decelerate. Industrial production and manufacturing output declined in February and March.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  Unemployment Forecast
    Company & Industry Overviews

    The FOMC Discusses the State of the Labor Market

    Fed participants noted improvement in the labor market, even as growth in economic activity has slowed. That said, the labor market has some strange numbers.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Bonds Get Slammed on FOMC Minutes

    On May 18, 2016, the Fed released its minutes from the April FOMC meeting. In this series, we’ll take an in-depth look at those minutes and their implications for investors.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Miscellaneous

    Why Did Ginnie Mae TBAs Underperform Fannie Mae TBAs?

    The ten-year bond yield, tradable through the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), fell by 5 basis points for the week. Ginnie Mae TBAs rose by three ticks.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  GDP forecast
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Why the FOMC Statement Is Constructive on the Economy

    The FOMC didn’t change its characterization of the economy. The labor markets are improving, economic growth slowed, and household spending moderated.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Miscellaneous

    Fannie Mae TBAs Didn’t Change for the Week

    For the week ending April 8, Fannie Mae TBAs ended at 104 28/32—unchanged for the week. The ten-year bond yield rose by 3 basis points to 1.8%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///foreclosure heat map
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why States Affect the Valuation of Mortgage Servicing Rights

    State laws affect the value of mortgage servicing rights. Typically, the rights in states like New York and New Jersey trade at a 25% discount to other states.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  GDP forecast
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why the Fed Lowered Its Forecast for 2016 GDP Growth

    During the March FOMC meeting, the Fed lowered its estimates for 2016 GDP growth from a range of 2.3%–2.5% to a range of 2.1%–2.3%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Miscellaneous

    Fannie Mae TBAs Rally with the Bond Market

    For the week ending April 1, Fannie Mae TBAs ended at 105 2/32. The ten-year bond yield, tradable through TLT, fell by 5 basis points to 1.7%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Labor Force Participation Rate Rose: So Why Don’t We Feel Better?

    The unemployment rate has been falling, so why don’t we feel better about the economy? Let’s look to the labor force participation rate to answer that question.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Miscellaneous

    Analyzing Fannie Mae and the TBA Market

    For the week ending March 11, Fannie Mae TBAs ended at 104—down 12 ticks for the week. The ten-year bond yield rose by 11 basis points to 1.98%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NFIB Small Business Optimism
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Week in Review: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Fell

    There’s usually light data the week after the jobs report. Last week, the most important data point was the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Refinance Applications Fall as Interest Rates Rise

    Mortgage refinance applications fell 2.3% from 2,104 to 2,056 for the week ending March 4. Since mid-2013, refinances have been dropping dramatically.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MFA Leverage Ratio
    Earnings Report

    MFA Financial Bumped Up Its Leverage Ratio

    MFA Financial (MFA) bumped its leverage ratio up to 3.4x—an increase from 3.3x at the end of 3Q15. This is a much lower leverage ratio than those of the big agency REITs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Refinance Activity Surges as Rates Fall, Impacts Mortgage REITs

    Mortgage refinance applications, as measured by the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) Refinance Index, rose 16% for the week ending February 5.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Unemployment rate LT
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    January Saw Unemployment Drop below 5%

    In January 2016, the unemployment rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9%, or by about 7.8 million people. The underemployment rate was flat at 9.9%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Ignore the Bond Market Rally

    Mortgage REITs such as Annaly Capital Management (NLY), MFA Financial (MFA), and American Capital Agency (AGNC) are big holders of Ginnie Mae TBAs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Rose 17 Ticks Last Week to 105 9/32

    The ten-year bond yield, tradable through the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), fell 13 basis points last week. Ginnie Mae TBAs picked up 17 ticks to close at 105 9/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Nonfarm Payrolls
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    All about that Jobs Report: What Matters for Real Estate this Week

    Investors return after a dovish FOMC statement to a packed week of data. The biggest report will be the jobs report on Friday, and the bond market will focus like a laser on wage growth.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///foreclosure heat map
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Foreclosure Laws Impact Home Price Appreciation

    There are two basic types of state foreclosure laws—judicial and non-judicial. In non-judicial states, foreclosures are handled through a streamlined process.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Unemployment rate LT
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Unemployment Holds Steady at 5% but Raises Are Hard to Come By

    In December 2015, the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%, or about 7.9 million people. The underemployment rate was flat at 9.9%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Rise by 15 Ticks, Underperform Fannie Mae TBAs

    The ten-year bond yield fell in the week ended January 8, 2016. Ginnie Mae TBAs rose 15 ticks to go out at 104 21/32, underperforming Fannie Mae TBAs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Dividend SHO
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Hotel and Mortgage REITs Took a Plunge

    Within the iShares US Real Estate ETF (IYR), mortgage and hotel and resort REITs were the worst-performing subgroups of the week.

    By Steve Sage
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Rallied and Rose by 10 Ticks

    Ginnie Mae TBAs rose ten ticks to go out at 104 6/32. Mortgage REITs are big users of TBAs because they can raise or lower exposure very quickly.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FICO Score
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Mortgage Applications Rose despite Rate Hike

    The Federal Reserve’s decision to increase the federal funds rate by 0.25% on December 16, 2015, had minimal impact on the mortgage volume.

    By Steve Sage
  • uploads///Dividends_RSO
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Resource Capital Rallied 26.8% with Dividend Announcement

    For the week ended December 18, the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF returned 4%. Resource Capital and New Residential Investment were top performers.

    By Steve Sage
  • uploads///Prices of NLY  to
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Rate Hike’s History and Its Impact on Mortgage REITs

    Mortgage REITs like New Residential Investment, Chimera Investment, and American Capital Agency will witness the impact of a rate hike for the first time.

    By Steve Sage
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Fannie Mae TBAs Fell by 9 Ticks

    Fannie Mae TBAs ended the prior week at 103 17/32. They fell nine ticks to go out at 103 8/32 for the week ending December 18.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Catch a Bid on the Flight-to-Safety Trade

    Mortgage REITs such as Annaly Capital Management (NLY), MFA Financial (MFA), and American Capital Agency (AGNC) are big holders of Ginnie Mae TBAs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Fall 5 Ticks

    The ten-year bond yield fell by 1 basis point for the week ending November 20. Ginnie Mae TBAs fell 5 ticks to go out at 103 25/32.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  GDP forecast
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    October FOMC Minutes Show the Economy Is Improving

    According to the October FOMC minutes, the Fed members noted that industrial production had fallen, which they attributed to the rise in the US dollar.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Ginnie Mae TBAs Fall 2 Ticks

    Ginnie Mae TBAs fell 2 ticks to go out at 104 5/32 for the week ending November 13, matching the performance of Fannie Mae TBAs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///foreclosure heat map
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Home Price Appreciation Differs from State to State

    In the judicial states, particularly New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, we’re seeing much lower home price appreciation.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Labor Force Participation Rate Still Mired at Multi-Decade Lows

    In October, the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.4%—its lowest point since 1977.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MFA Leverage Ratio
    Earnings Report

    MFA Financial Maintains Its Leverage Ratio

    MFA Financial (MFA) kept its leverage ratio at 3.3x—the same level as in the last two quarters. At the end of the third quarter, MFA Financial had $9.5 billion in repurchase agreements.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Labor Force Participation Rate Drops Again

    In September, the labor force participation rate slid to 62.4%, its lowest point since 1977. The labor force declined from 157.1 million to 156.7 million, while the population increased from 251.1 million to 251.3 million.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Fannie Mae TBAs Sell Off with the Bond Market

    Fannie Mae TBAs ended the prior week at 104 4/32 and gave up about a quarter of a point to go out at 104 4/32. The ten-year bond yield, which you can trade through TLT, rose by 53 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Mortgage Refinance Applications Rise

    Mortgage refinance applications, as measured by the MBA Refinance Index, rose 16.7% from 1,693 to 1,902 for the week ending August 28.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Employment Cost Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Employment Costs Tick Down in the Second Quarter of 2015

    The Obama administration increased employment costs by having the Department of Labor mandate time-and-a-half overtime pay for workers who had previously been classified as managerial.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Fannie Mae TBAs Almost Unchanged Last Week: Implications for REITs

    Fannie Mae TBAs started the week at 102 26/32 and gave up 2 ticks to go out at 102 3/4 even. The ten-year bond yield rose by 2 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Unemployment rate LT
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Unemployment Rate Falls as the Labor Force Shrinks

    The unemployment rate ticked down 0.2% to 5.3% in June, or ~8.3 million people. The underemployment rate includes discouraged workers—people who want to work, but who have given up looking.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Employment Cost Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Employment Costs Are Accelerating

    Employment costs increased 0.7% in the quarter ended March 31, 2015. This was a small increase from the December quarter.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Unemployment rate LT
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Unemployment Ticks Down: Good News and Bad News for REITs

    Changing unemployment is a double-edged sword for REITs. Some bear credit risk, and an improving economy is good news. Others bear interest-rate risk, and they’re vulnerable to a hawkish Fed.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///JOLT Job Openings
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The JOLTs Job Opening Indicator is Flashing Green

    There were 5.13 million job openings in February 2015, up 23% year-over-year. Those job openings came in below the Wall Street estimate of 5.01 million.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Bonds Rally as the Market Digests the Strong Jobs Report

    Last week, bonds digested the jobs report and also some of the other economic data, which was generally bond-bullish.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///JOLT Job Openings
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Jobs Report Hits post-2001 High, but We’re Not Seeing Inflation

    Wall Street will be interested to see if the Fed takes down its inflation forecast materially in its FOMC projection materials.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CIM Q
    Fund Managers

    Chimera posts growth in third quarter profit and interest income

    Chimera’s core earnings grew to $116 million compared to $93 million in the year-ago period. Growth was mainly due to an increase in net interest income.

    By Samantha Nielson
  • uploads///Mortgage Delinquencies
    Financials

    Mortgage delinquencies tick up 6.08%

    Better economic times are helping lower mortgage delinquencies, but we still have some work to do clearing the foreclosure pipeline.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///delinquencies
    Real Estate

    Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Post-Bubble Lows

    In general, mortgage delinquencies fell to 5.4% due to home price improvements and clearing foreclosure pipelines. The normal level before the housing bubble was between 4% and 5%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Employment Rises, Labor Force Participation Rate Remains Unchanged

    The unemployment rate has been falling, so why doesn’t the average citizen feel better about the economy? The reason is the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.8% in November.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Employment Cost Index
    Healthcare

    It appears affordable care isn’t adding to employment costs

    These days, the Fed isn’t all that concerned about inflation raging out of control. Indeed, it would like to see higher inflation.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  Inflation Forecast
    Financials

    Inflation remains well-anchored: Good news for mortgage REITs

    The Fed prefers to use the Personal Consumption Expenditure (or PCE) Index as its measure of inflation over the Consumer Price Index, which is more familiar to most people. There are a few differences between the two.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Financials

    REITs must-read: The “yes but” answer to the unemployment rate

    The unemployment rate is the most important data point out there right now, and it has been falling. So why doesn’t the economy feel better to the average citizen?

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Black Knight Origination
    Financials

    Must-know: Understanding non-qualified mortgage loans

    Non-QM loans would typically be useful for borrowers with sporadic income, but a large amount of assets. However, lenders will only consider low loan-to-value (or LTV) loans—like 80% maximum, which really is a ceiling. Most lenders are below that.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///delinquencies brent HPs conflicted copy
    Financials

    Why 90-day delinquencies tick up slightly in June

    In general, mortgage delinquencies are falling as home prices rise and the foreclosure pipeline clears. While 5.7% seems low compared to the peak of 10%, the “normal” level prior to the housing bubble was in the range of 4%–5%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ADP Payrolls
    Financials

    ADP’s payroll numbers predict a good jobs report, affecting REITs

    Private-sector employment increased by 281,000 in June. May’s number was 179,000. In terms of industries, professional and business services increased the most, by 53,000.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///delinquencies
    Financials

    Mortgage delinquencies continue to dive, helping REITs like Annaly

    Black Knight Financial Services (formerly known as Lender Processing Services) is a vendor to mortgage originators, handling mortgage processing and default management outsourcing.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NLY book value
    Financials

    Recommendation: Watch out for lots of REIT earnings this week

    The week after the jobs report is very light, data-wise. That said, we have a lot of earnings next week—especially in the REIT sector, with heavyweights Vornado (VNO) and Annaly Capital (NLY) reporting.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Case Schiller
    Financials

    Must-know: Low inventory affects the REITs in different ways

    Existing home sales have been lower than usual. Most markets usually bottom on some sort of big volume wash-out, where inventory is dumped from weak hands into strong hands.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///delinquencies
    Financials

    Mortgage delinquencies drop below 6%, helping REITs like PennyMac

    Black Knight Financial Services (formerly known as Lender Processing Services) is a vendor to mortgage originators, handling mortgage processing and default management outsourcing.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBS tranching
    Consumer

    Why increasing income drives REITs and builders like KB and Redwood

    Homebuilders are sensitive to the general economy, particularly the job market. Flat income growth isn’t what they want to see.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///LPS originations
    Financials

    Why low mortgage origination volumes are bad for REITs

    Mortgage originators have had a difficult time over the past year, as rates have begun rising. The increase in interest rates pretty much stopped the refinance boom in its tracks.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ADP Payrolls
    Financials

    Why ADP and Moody’s numbers suggest a weak jobs report

    Private sector employment increased by 139,000 in February. January’s numbers were revised downward from 175,000 to 127,000.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NLY leverage
    Financials

    Recommendation: REITs are getting bullish—should you?

    2013 was a very difficult year for mortgage REITs, as the Fed finally began to lighten its footprint in the mortgage market by reducing asset purchases.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Recommendation: AGNC is buying REITs because they’re so cheap

    American Capital Agency is one of the biggest Agency REITs in that it invests in securities backed by mortgages that are guaranteed by the U.S. government.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ADP Payrolls
    Financials

    Why Automatic Data Processing predicts a weak jobs report

    Private sector employment increased by 175,000 in January. December’s numbers were revised downward from 238,000 to 227,000.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Recommendation: Don’t read too much into the emerging market selloff

    Bonds have been rallying as emerging markets sell off. Does a sell-off in emerging markets change the Fed’s decision-making regarding tapering?

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Recommendation: Should REIT investors fear an accelerated taper?

    Last week, we had some stronger-than-expected data with housing starts and some of the industrial production data. Does that mean the Fed will accelerate tapering?

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///LPS originations
    Financials

    Why steeply falling originations mean bad news for non-agency REITs

    Mortgage originators have had a difficult time over the past year, as rates have begun rising. The increase in interest rates pretty much stopped the refinance boom in its tracks.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Negative Equity
    Financials

    Must-know: Why increasing home prices are important for REITs

    The biggest economic challenge of the recovery has been the indebted consumer. Consumption has fallen as consumers have focused on repaying debt.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Recommendation: With the economy picking up steam, what is a yield investor to do?

    This is an unfriendly environment for bonds, and with the stock market at all-time highs, yield is hard to come by.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed GDP Forecast
    Financials

    Why the Fed maintained its forecast for the US economy in 2014

    In this part of this series, we’ll look at the Fed’s GDP forecast for 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016, and also at how its forecast for 2014 GDP growth has changed

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Financials

    Recommendation: Why swap interest rate risk for credit risk?

    The most important economic report these days came out last Friday, which is the the monthly jobs report. The Street had set the bar relatively low.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Initial Jobless Claims
    Financials

    Initial jobless claims fell slightly, good for non-agency REITs

    Initial jobless claims decreased to 339,000 for the week ended November 8. The financial industry is laying people off as the mortgage business dries up.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///mREIT
    Financials

    Must-know analysis: Can mortgage REITs be too big to fail?

    The biggest names in the REIT sector are Annaly (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC). They bear no credit risk, but they do bear a lot of interest rate risk.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Two Harbors
    Financials

    Must-know: Two Harbors reports a small decline in book value

    Two Harbors’ sophisticated investment strategy of buying mortgage servicing rights and being short TBAs helped it weather the bond market sell-off.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR Corelogc HPI
    Financials

    Must-know: Home prices hit their highest level since May 2008

    The 12% year-over-year gain resembles the gains we saw during the bubble years. Both distressed sales and non-distressed sales rose by similar amounts.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///AGNC
    Financials

    American Capital Agency disappoints but has reduced leverage

    Needless to say, all REITs have suffered over the last quarter, as the Fed has threatened to take away the quantitative easing punchbowl and rates have risen.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
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