Invesco DB Energy Fund

Bearish natural gas traders will likely bet on mild weather and could raise their short positions as demand could drop during the peak period from November to March.

The EIA reported RBOB gasoline futures contract 1 prices at $1.30 per gallon on November 23, representing a fall of ~1.8% from $1.32 per gallon on October 16.

In this part of our series, we’ll share a valuation analysis for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and compare it with other companies in the mining space.

Record production, record inventory, and mild winter weather will continue to put pressure on natural gas prices. Gas prices could see the next support at $1.60 per MMBtu. They hit this in 1995.

US natural gas inventory fell for the third straight week, falling by 163 Bcf. Before that, natural gas inventory had risen for 34 straight weeks.

January natural gas futures contracts fell by 1.2% and closed at $1.89 per MMBtu (British thermal units in millions) on Tuesday, December 22, 2015.

Long-term pessimistic sentiments could push natural gas prices lower. The next support for natural gas prices is seen at $1.60 per MMBtu.

US natural gas prices have fallen 18% so far in December 2015. Likewise, the US natural gas rig count has fallen by 21 rigs so far in 2015.

Baker Hughes reported that the US crude oil rig count rose by 17 rigs to 541 rigs for the week ending December 18, 2015, compared with the previous week.

Record natural gas production, the mild winter weather forecast, and record natural gas inventories are adding pressure to natural gas prices.

The EIA estimates that natural gas prices could average around $2.69 per MMBtu (British thermal units in millions) in 2015 and $3 per MMBtu in 2016.

Prices for natural gas could test the next support of $2 per MMBtu as it appears that natural gas prices are trading within a downward trending channel.

Warm weather could be experienced across the eastern, northeastern, mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes regions of the US according to MDA Weather Services.

Baker Hughes releases its natural gas rig count every Friday. Last week, the natural gas rig count fell by six to 193 for the week ending November 13, 2015.

Data released by the EIA on November 19 indicated that natural gas inventories rose to 4 trillion cubic feet for the week ending November 13, 2015.

If natural gas inventories rose in the week ending November 13, 2015, it will have been the highest inventory increase during this period since 2009.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is looking at “strategic alternatives” for its energy business. It has highlighted two objectives for its energy (DBE) business

The natural gas production from the US rose slightly by 0.2% for the week ending November 4, 2015—compared to the previous week.

The current natural gas stocks are 11.8% more than the level of 3,468 Bcf in 2014. They’re also 4.1% greater than the five-year seasonal average of 3,724 Bcf.

The natural gas inventory rose to 3,877 Bcf for the 30th consecutive week in the week ending October 23, 2015.

US households use 49% of the natural gas for heating needs. The lower cost of natural gas and clean energy will drive the demand for natural gas.

Warm weather was the catalyst that killed the natural gas market in October. Prices fell 8% in October due to warmer-than-normal winter weather estimates.

Baker Hughes reported that the natural gas rig count rose by one to 193 for the week ending October 23, 2015.

According to the EIA, US natural gas stocks rose by 63 billion cubic feet to 3,877 Bcf for the week ended October 23, 2015.

Natural gas production from the lower-48 states of the United States rose to 81.65 billion cubic feet per day for the week ending October 27, 2015.

On October 16, Baker Hughes will release its active US natural gas rig count. The US natural gas rig count fell by six to 189 for the week ending October 9.