Record production, record inventory, and mild winter weather will continue to put pressure on natural gas prices. Gas prices could see the next support at $1.60 per MMBtu. They hit this in 1995.
Baker Hughes reported that the US crude oil rig count rose by 17 rigs to 541 rigs for the week ending December 18, 2015, compared with the previous week.
Natural gas prices have been oscillating between $2.10 and $2.30 per MMBtu for the last five trading sessions. The consensus of a fall in natural gas inventory could boost natural gas prices.
Bearish natural gas traders will likely bet on mild weather and could raise their short positions as demand could drop during the peak period from November to March.
Prices for natural gas could test the next support of $2 per MMBtu as it appears that natural gas prices are trading within a downward trending channel.
Baker Hughes releases its natural gas rig count every Friday. Last week, the natural gas rig count fell by six to 193 for the week ending November 13, 2015.
On November 13, Baker Hughes published its weekly natural gas rig count report. The natural gas rig count fell by six to 193 for the week ending November 13.
On November 16, the EIA published its natural gas in storage report. Natural gas stocks rose by 54 Bcf to 3,985 Bcf for the week ending November 6, 2015.
The natural gas rig count rose by ten in the last four weeks. Baker Hughes (BHI) will release the weekly natural gas rig count report on November 13, 2015.
The current momentum of rising natural gas suggests that the natural gas inventory could rise for the 32nd straight week. This drives natural gas stocks higher.
On Friday, November 13, the EIA will publish the weekly US natural gas inventory report. The stocks rose by 52 Bcf for the week ending October 30, 2015.
The US government’s global forecast model estimates that the weather will likely be colder than normal in November. Cold weather impacts the heating needs.
Baker Hughes (BHI) will publish the weekly natural gas rig count report on November 6, 2015. The US active natural gas rig count rose for the third straight week.
The current natural gas stocks are 11.8% more than the level of 3,468 Bcf in 2014. They’re also 4.1% greater than the five-year seasonal average of 3,724 Bcf.
The EIA reported RBOB gasoline futures contract 1 prices at $1.30 per gallon on November 23, representing a fall of ~1.8% from $1.32 per gallon on October 16.
Warm weather was the catalyst that killed the natural gas market in October. Prices fell 8% in October due to warmer-than-normal winter weather estimates.
According to the EIA, natural gas inventory rose 81 Bcf to 3,814 Bcf for the week ended October 16, 2015. It rose due to increasing natural gas production and a mild winter forecast.
On October 16, Baker Hughes will release its active US natural gas rig count. The US natural gas rig count fell by six to 189 for the week ending October 9.
Natural gas inventories rose by 98 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,538 Bcf in the week ending September 25, which was the 26th straight week of increases.
