Andeavor

We began this series by ranking the growth in refiners’ second-quarter earnings. In the preceding two parts, we looked at the two highest probable growth achievers for Q2 2018.

The merged entity would have 16 refineries with around 3 million barrels per day (or MMbpd) of capacity spread across the US.

In this series, we’ll be sorting refining stocks in terms of earnings expectations for 4Q17. If we rank them on their likely YoY growth in EPS, then Andeavor (ANDV) occupies the top slot.

Andeavor Logistics (ANDX), a midstream MLP subsidiary of Andeavor (ANDV), reported adjusted EBITDA of $273 million in 1Q18.

Valero’s liquidity In 1H17, Valero Energy (VLO) generated $2785 million in cash from operations. The company had cash outflows of $880 million in the form of capital expenditure and deferred turnaround and catalyst costs and $627 million in the form of dividends. Valero’s liquidity surplus Valero’s cash outflows amounted to around $1507 million in 1H17, […]

Marathon Petroleum’s solvency ratios are higher than the industry average, which is not a comfortable situation.

With refining modernization projects and midstream and chemical expansion projects, Phillips 66 is set to create a growth-oriented diversified earnings model.

In the first quarter, Valero observed the highest rise in its net debt. VLO’s net debt rose 42.0% sequentially to $4.3 billion.

In this part of our series, we’ll look at the top-percentage gainers from the US refining and marketing sector this week.

Implied volatility in ANDV has risen sharply by 13.8% since January 2, 2018, to its current level of 32.9%.

Of the 17 analysts covering Andeavor (ANDV), 15 (88%) have rated the stock a “buy” so far in August 2017. Two analysts have rated ANDV a “hold.”

Marathon Petroleum has been covered by a total of 19 analysts. Fifteen (79%) have assigned “buy” or “strong buy” ratings.

Currently, MPC trades at a forward PE (price-to-earnings) ratio of 14.8x, above its peer average of 13.8x.

In 2Q17, Phillips 66 (PSX) rose, likely due to its 1Q17 numbers.

In this series, we’ll perform a cross-sectional analysis of refining stocks. We’ll examine their moving averages and eight-day price forecasts based on implied volatility, and compare their leverage, liquidity, capex, and refining margins.

Four (27%) of the 15 analysts covering DK have rated it a “buy” so far in August 2017.

Since the beginning of the third quarter on July 2, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock has risen 17%. The stock outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

The API reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.85 MMbbls (million barrels) on April 27–May 4.

The merger of MPC-ANDV would create a huge midstream segment with two separate MLPs.

Currently, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) trades at a forward PE ratio of 12.6x—above its peer average of 11.9x.

In 4Q17, Andeavor’s (ANDV) gasoline production stood at 53.0% of its total refined products produced.

Since January 2, 2018, Marathon Petroleum stock has risen 0.7%, underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the overall market indicator.

In the previous part of this series, we discussed refining stocks’ dividend yield trends. Now, we’ll look at the forward valuations for Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Andeavor (ANDV), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX).

Since October 2, 2017, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock has risen 15.7%, outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). SPY has risen 5.3% in the same period.

Phillips 66 (PSX) is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0x, which is above the peer average of 11.9x.

Institutional ownership in Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Andeavor (ANDV), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) stands at an average of over 70%.

Valero is now trading at a forward PE (price-to-earnings) ratio of 13.8x, below its peer average of 15.7x.

The API reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.4 MMbbls (million barrels) on April 20–27.

On June 5, the API (American Petroleum Institute) released its crude oil inventory report.

Now let’s discuss the forward valuations of refiners Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Andeavor (ANDV), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX).

According to the EIA, Cushing inventories increased by 1.4 MMbbls (million barrels) to 37.2 MMbbls on April 27–May 4.

According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration), Cushing inventories fell for the first time in five weeks, by 1.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 36.1 MMbbls between May 11 and 18.

The EIA estimates that Cushing inventories increased by 0.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 37.2 MMbbls on May 4–11.

In 3Q17, Valero Energy (VLO) saw a rise in its gross refining margin by $2.2 per barrel over 3Q16 to $10.9 per barrel.

MPC trades at valuations above its peer averages, likely because it is now in the process of restructuring the organization to unlock value.

Andeavor’s (ANDV) net income from continuing operations (attributable to shareholders) dropped from $418 million in 2Q16 to $40 million in 2Q17.

Raymond James has cut PSXP’s target price to $60 from $61, while Stifel has cut the stock’s target price to $61 from $63.

ANDV’s Midcontinent index value has declined to $19.00 per barrel in 4Q17 quarter-to-date from $20.10 per barrel in 3Q17.

In 4Q17, Phillips 66’s total adjusted net income rose 431% YoY (year-over-year) to $605 million, and its refining earnings rose from -$95 million to $358 million due to wider refining margins and a higher utilization rate.

Fifteen of the 19 analysts covering Andeavor (ANDV) rated it as a “buy” in December 2017.

Valero Energy’s (VLO) debt position, which is measured by its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, stood at 0.7x in the second quarter.

According to Marathon Petroleum, so far in the third quarter, the blended LLS crack has fallen by $2.1 per barrel YoY to $10.6 per barrel.

Comparing Valero’s valuation In this last part, we’ll compare Valero Energy’s (VLO) valuation with peers’. VLO is presently trading at a forward PE (price-to-earnings) ratio of 13.4x, below its peers’ average of 13.9x. Peers PBF Energy (PBF) and CVR Refining (CVRR) also have below-average ratios, of 12.3x and 11.2x, respectively. Also, VLO has a forward EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise […]

In the current week starting January 1, 2018, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) leads our list of gainers, rising from last week’s close of $65.98 to $68.61 on January 3, 2018.

Now let’s find out which institutions bought or sold Valero in the second quarter based on the latest 13F filings.

MPC’s cash flow excess as a percentage of its earnings ability, or cash flow from operations, stood at 28.0%.

Andeavor Logistics (ANDX) (formerly Tesoro Logistics Partners), a midstream MLP subsidiary of Andeavor (ANDV), posted strong earnings growth during 4Q17.

VLO’s Midcon crack indicator fell from $18.50 per barrel in 3Q17 to $16.50 per barrel in 4Q17.

Currently, Phillips 66’s 50 DMA trades 11.3% above its 200 DMA.

In 4Q17, Valero Energy (VLO) rose 19.3%, the highest among its peers. Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Andeavor (ANDV), and Phillips 66 (PSX) rose 18.1%, 10.2%, and 9.5%, respectively, in 4Q17.

HollyFrontier’s (HFC) forward PE ratio is 10.4x, below peers’ average of 11.2x. Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC), Andeavor’s (ANDV), and Phillips 66’s (PSX) forward PE ratios are higher than the average, at 12.8x, 13.8x, and 12.1x, respectively.

Now let’s consider the stock that’s expected to post the lowest gain: Andeavor (ANDV).

The USGC WTI 3-2-1 crack has risen 21% since July 2 to the current level of $19 per barrel. The USSC WTI 3-2-1 crack has fallen 15% YoY.

Considering ANDV’s implied volatility of 18.0%, Andeavor’s stock price could close between $146.30 and $160.30 for the 24-day period ending October 1.

ANDV’s 50 DMA, which stood 21% above its 200 DMA at the beginning of the third quarter, now stands 17% above its 200 DMA.

Since July 2, Andeavor (ANDV) stock has risen 16.0%, outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which has risen 6.0% in the same period.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Andeavor (ANDV), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) have paid dividends regularly in the past few years.

In the third quarter so far, Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy (VLO), Andeavor (ANDV), and Phillips 66 (PSX) have seen stock price rises.

Valero Energy (VLO) is steadily progressing on its path toward creating an integrated downstream value chain.

MPC’s gross refining and marketing margin rose by $4.1 per barrel over Q2 2017 to $15.4 per barrel in Q2 2018.

Andeavor (ANDV) posted its second-quarter earnings results on August 6. In the period, it surpassed estimates.

Andeavor (ANDV) reported second-quarter revenues of $12.5 billion, which surpassed Wall Street analysts’ estimate.

Of the 17 analysts tracking Phillips 66 (PSX), seven analysts gave “buy” or “strong buy” ratings on the stock.

Now let’s examine analysts’ ratings for MPC following its second-quarter earnings results.

In the earlier two parts of this series, we looked at Andeavor’s (ANDV) earnings estimates and expected refining margin for Q2 2018.

Since April 2, the beginning of the second quarter, Phillips 66 (PSX) stock and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) have risen. SPY tracks the S&P 500 Index.

Valero Energy (VLO) is expected to publish its second-quarter results on July 26.

Delek US Holdings (DK) is presently trading at a forward PE multiple of 8.2x, below peers’ average of 11.5x.

As no US refining and marketing stocks have risen this week, we’ll look at the stocks that have fallen the most in the sector.

Now let’s look at Phillips 66’s moving average trend in the current quarter.

Andeavor’s (ANDV) refining operations yielded 54% gasoline and 36% combined diesel fuel and jet fuel in the first quarter.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Andeavor (ANDV), and Baker Hughes, a GE Company (BHGE) are leading the decline in XLE this week.

Delek US Holdings (DK) decreased from last week’s close of $56.69 to $51.92 on June 14, which is a drop of ~8.4%.

Andeavor (ANDV) is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4x, above its peer average of 13.9x.

In the first quarter, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) recorded -$137 million in cash from operations. The company recorded cash outflows of $755 million.

In this series on the biggest movers in the energy sector this week, we’ll look now at the stocks with the biggest losses in the US refining and marketing sector.

The average institutional ownership in Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Andeavor (ANDV), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) is over 70%.

Short interest in Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Andeavor (ANDV), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) has seen a mixed trend since March 29.

Eleven of the 21 analysts covering Valero Energy (VLO) have rated it a “buy.”

Andeavor (ANDV) scored the highest gross refining margin in Q1 2018, followed by Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO).

Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) reported net income increased to $37.0 million in the first quarter from $30.0 million year-over-year.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) posted its first-quarter results on April 30. MPC’s revenues of $19.0 billion missed Wall Street estimates.

The decline in Marathon Petroleum stock since the merger announcement could mean that the market doesn’t have a favorable view of this deal from MPC’s perspective.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Andeavor (ANDV) have agreed to a strategic merger.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) posted 1Q18 revenues of $19 billion, which missed Wall Street analyst estimates.

Andeavor’s (ANDV) gross refining margin increased by $1.4 per barrel year-over-year to $10.9 per barrel in 1Q18.

Andeavor (ANDV) reported 1Q18 revenues of $10.3 billion, which surpassed Wall Street analysts’ estimate.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) posted its 1Q18 earnings on April 30. The company missed its earnings estimates for the quarter.

For Phillips 66, seven analysts assigned “buy” ratings, ten analysts assigned “hold” ratings, and two analysts assigned “sell” ratings on the stock.

A total of 20 analysts have rated Andeavor. Sixteen of them (or 80%) have assigned the stock a “buy” or “strong buy” rating.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Andeavor (ANDV) have entered an agreement to merge. Today, ANDV opened with a bang!

Andeavor (ANDV) saw a decline in its gross refining margin of $1.80 per barrel YoY to $7.60 per barrel in 4Q17.

Phillips 66 (PSX) posted its 1Q18 results today. Let’s compare its 1Q18 performance and estimates.

Valero Energy posted its 1Q18 results yesterday. Let’s compare VLO’s 1Q18 performance to estimates.

In this series, we’ll examine refining stocks in terms of Wall Street analysts’ earnings expectations for 1Q18.

Phillips 66 (PSX) is anticipated to post its 1Q18 results on April 27, 2018.

Since January 2, 2018, Valero Energy (VLO) stock has risen 2.6%. Its peers have shown a mixed trend in the same period.

In this article, we’ll analyze Valero Energy’s (VLO) refining margin indicators in 1Q18. Let’s start by examining Valero’s refining margin in 4Q17.

This week, crude oil (USO) prices fell almost 2.2% from last week’s close of $64.94 per barrel.

Institutional ownership in Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Andeavor (ANDV), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) stood above 60% in March 2018.