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FOLD and PTLA: What to Expect from Revenue Growth in Fiscal 2019

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Revenue guidance

In its investor presentation, Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) has guided for the revenues of its lead asset, Galafold, to fall in the range of $160 million to $180 million in fiscal 2019, a YoY rise of 86.40% at the midpoint. The company assumes robust uptake of the drug in the US, Japan, and other early launch markets. In the first quarter, Amicus Therapeutics reported revenues of $34.05 million, a YoY rise of 103.64% but lower than the consensus estimate by $3.82 million.

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According to Amicus Therapeutics’ first quarter earnings conference call, the company expects to report more than $1.0 billion in revenues, while treating over 5,000 patients by 2023. At the end of the first quarter, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities worth $438.2 million on its balance sheet, lower than the $504.2 million at end of fiscal 2018. The company has guided for a cash balance of $300 million at the end of fiscal 2019 and expects this capital to sustain its ongoing operations until the middle of 2021.

In the first quarter, Portola Pharmaceuticals (PTLA) reported revenues of $22.17 million, a YoY rise of 233.67% and higher than the consensus estimate by $1.57 million.

Wall Street estimates

Analysts expect Amicus Therapeutics’ revenues to rise YoY by 89.66% to $173.05 million in fiscal 2019, 55.07% to $268.36 million in fiscal 2020, and 41.91% to $380.83 million in fiscal 2021. On the other hand, analysts expect Portola Pharmaceuticals’ revenues to change YoY by 192.47% to $117.37 million in fiscal 2019, 109.02% to $245.33 million in fiscal 2020, and 71.29% to $420.21 million in fiscal 2021.

Analysts expect Amicus Therapeutics’ revenues to rise YoY by 92.81% to $41.09 million in the second quarter, 116.74% to $44.64 million in the third quarter, and 63.27% to $53.30 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019. Analysts also expect Portola Pharmaceuticals’ revenues to rise YoY by 533.48% to $25.41 million in the second quarter, 124.04% to $31.76 million in the third quarter, and 160.83% to $39.90 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019.

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