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Comparing the Revenue Growth Trajectories of Gilead and Biogen

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Revenue guidance

In its first-quarter earnings investor presentation, Gilead Sciences (GILD) reaffirmed its 2019 revenue guidance of $21.30 billion–$21.80 billion. In the first quarter, the company reported revenue of $5.28 billion, a YoY (year-over-year) rise of 3.79% but $10.36 million lower than the consensus estimate.

According to its first-quarter earnings conference call, Gilead Sciences reported double-digit revenue growth in its HIV franchise driven by the solid uptake of Descovy-based regimens as well as the increasing penetration of Truvada for the treatment of pre-exposure prophylaxis. The company’s cell-therapy business is also evolving as a key revenue driver in 2019. Gilead Sciences reported $93 million worth of revenue from its CAR-T therapy, Yescarta, reflecting a sequential rise of 90%. However, the loss of exclusivity of its cardiopulmonary drugs Ranexa and Letairis is expected to have a negative impact on its revenue in 2019.

In its fourth-quarter earnings press release, Biogen (BIIB) guided for revenue in the range of $13.6 billion–$13.8 billion for 2019. In the first quarter, the company reported revenue of $3.49 billion, a YoY rise of 11.46% and $105.46 million higher than the consensus estimate. Spinraza was a key revenue driver for the company and reported revenue of $518 million, a YoY rise of 42% and a sequential rise of 10%.

Wall Street estimates

Analysts expect Gilead Sciences’ revenue to see YoY changes of -0.42% to $22.04 billion in 2019, 1.59% to $22.39 billion in 2020, and -0.08% to $22.37 billion in 2021. On the other hand, analysts expect Biogen’s revenue to see YoY changes of 3.34% to $13.90 billion in 2019, -0.69% to $13.81 billion in 2020, and -1.02% to $13.67 billion in 2021.

Analysts expect Gilead Sciences’ revenue to see YoY falls of -2.37% to $5.51 billion in the second quarter, -0.55% to $5.57 billion in the third quarter, and -1.37% to $5.72 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019. Analysts also expect Biogen’s revenue to see YoY changes of 3.12% to $3.46 billion in the second quarter, 1.13% to $3.49 billion in the third quarter, and -0.87% to $3.50 billion in the fourth quarter.

 

 

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