This year, Harley-Davidson (HOG) has risen 17.4%, while the S&P 500 has risen 15.9%. Meanwhile, auto stocks (XLY) General Motors (GM), Ford Motor (F), Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU), Ferrari (RACE), and Honda (HMC) have risen 18.3%, 22.0%, 11.9%, 37.8%, and 5.7%, respectively.
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Q4 2018 earnings
In the fourth quarter, Harley-Davidson’s adjusted EPS fell 76.6% YoY (year-over-year) from $0.47 to $0.11, missing analysts’ estimate of $0.28. Investors reacted negatively to the company’s fourth-quarter results, and its stock closed ~5.1% lower the day of its earnings announcement. The company’s home market retail sales fell 10.1% YoY in the quarter, and its international retail sales fell 2.6% YoY.
Analysts’ estimates for Q1 2019
Analysts expect Harley-Davidson’s earnings to continue to fall in the first quarter, by 36.8% YoY from $1.03 to $0.65. The lack of any expected recovery in HOG’s motorcycle retail sales could be why analysts expect its first-quarter earnings to disappoint investors.