Analyzing BP’s Stock Performance in the Past Month

BP (BP) has the second-lowest stock returns among the six stocks discussed in this series. BP stock posted lower returns than Total (TOT) and Suncor Energy (SU) in the past month.

BP stock has risen 0.3% since February 11. The broad market indicator, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has increased 2.9% during the same period. Total and Suncor Energy stocks have risen 3.2% and 2.2%, respectively, in the past month.

On February 11, BP’s ten-day moving average was 3.2% above its 30-day moving average. BP’s 30-day moving average has risen 4.1% in the past month. Currently, BP’s ten-day moving average is 1.0% above its 30-day moving average. The gap between BP’s ten-day moving average and 30-day moving average has narrowed. However, BP’s ten-day moving average has stayed above its 30-day moving average during this period, which is a technically positive sign.

BP trades at a forward PE ratio of 12.0x, which is below the peer average of 14.0x. BP’s lower valuations could be due to its debt position. BP’s debt position has improved but it hasn’t reached a comfort zone.

BP’s EPS is expected to fall 11% in 2019, which is more than the peer average of -6%. The company’s earnings could improve if oil prices rise this year. BP has a strong upstream projects pipeline that’s expected to generate volumes growth.

BP’s current dividend yield is 5.8%, which is above the peer average of 5.1%. BP is repurchasing shares to offset the scrip dilution. In 2018, BP’s share buyback was $0.4 billion.

Overall, BP stock has a relatively higher dividend yield and a lower valuation. The company’s earnings are expected to fall in 2019.