XOM, CVX, Shell, and BP: Do Moving Averages Suggest Caution?

Maitali Ramkumar - Author

Nov. 19 2018, Updated 11:45 a.m. ET

Integrated energy stocks fall

So far in the fourth quarter, integrated energy stocks ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), and BP (BP) have fallen. They have mainly fallen due to a steep fall in oil prices.

The recent third-quarter earnings also impacted integrated energy stocks. While Shell missed analysts’ earnings estimate, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and BP beat analysts’ estimates. To learn more, read Beats and Misses in Q3 2018: XOM, CVX, RDS.A, BP.

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Moving average trends in the fourth quarter

ExxonMobil’s 50-day moving average has risen in the current quarter due to an increase in its stock price in September and early October. The increase stock price widened the gap between ExxonMobil’s 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average. ExxonMobil’s 50-day moving average, which was 1.2% above its 200-day moving average on October 1, is 3.1% above its 200-day moving average.

In contrast, Chevron, Shell, and BP’s 50-day moving averages fell in the current quarter due to weakness in their stock prices.

The fall in BP’s 50-day moving average narrowed the gap between both its moving averages. BP’s 50-day moving average, which was 1.3% above its 200-day moving average on October 1, is 0.6% above its 200-day moving average.

Chevron and Shell, which already had their 50-day moving averages below their 200-day moving averages, saw the gap widen. Chevron’s 50-day moving average, which was 0.9% below its 200-day moving average on October 1, is 1.6% below its 200-day moving average. Shell’s 50-day moving average fell and is 2.3% below its 200-day moving average.

What to expect

ExxonMobil and BP’s 50-day moving averages held above their 200-day moving averages, which is a favorable sign.

If these stocks fall more, it could impact their 50-day moving averages, which could break below their 200-day moving averages—not a good sign. As a result, these stocks need to continue to maintain the current levels.

Next, we’ll discuss the price forecast for ExxonMobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, and BP until the end of the fourth quarter.


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