Gold mid-year outlook 2018

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In our outlook for second half of 2018, we have identified three key macro trends that will influence gold’s behaviour:

  • positive but uneven global economic growth
  • trade wars and their impact on currency
  • rising inflation and an inverted yield curve.

Combined with attractive entry levels, we believe that these trends will increase gold’s relevance for investors in the months ahead.

A rocky start for the year

The first half of 2018 proved quite eventful for financial markets. Stocks experienced a few pullbacks during the first quarter as geopolitical tensions rose but have been generally trading upward since the start of Q2. This was especially true in the US and Asia, where tech stocks captured most of the growth. So far, investors seemed to have shrugged off the escalating trade war rhetoric between the US and many of its trading partners or, at least, discounting the effect it may have on long-term economic growth.