Halliburton’s implied volatility
Halliburton’s (HAL) implied volatility was 23.8% on April 27. On April 23, the day Halliburton released its 1Q18 earnings, its implied volatility was 24.9%. Since then, Halliburton’s implied volatility has decreased. Halliburton accounts for 3.3% of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES). XES provides exposure to the energy sector’s oil and gas equipment and services segment. XES has increased 1% since April 23—compared to a 1% rise in Halliburton’s stock price during the same period. The implied volatility signals a stock’s potential price movement, as viewed by the option holders.
Halliburton’s seven-day stock price forecast
Halliburton stock will likely close between $54.57 and $51.09 in the next seven days—based on its implied volatility. Halliburton’s seven-day stock price forecast is based on a normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%. Halliburton’s stock price was $52.83 on April 27.
Implied volatility for Halliburton’s peers
On April 27, TechnipFMC’s (FTI) implied volatility was 36.1%. TechnipFMC’s stock price could vary between $35.00 and $31.66 in the next seven days. McDermott International’s (MDR) implied volatility was ~89% on April 27. McDermott International’s stock price could vary between $7.74 and $6.04 for the next seven days. Weatherford International’s (WFT) implied volatility was ~58% on April 27. Weatherford International’s stock price could vary between $3.19 and $2.71 in the next seven days.
Crude oil’s implied volatility
On April 27, crude oil’s implied volatility was 23.6%. Since April 23, crude oil’s volatility has decreased. Halliburton’s implied volatility also decreased during the same period.
Next, we’ll discuss Halliburton’s correlation with crude oil.