Tenaris’s implied volatility
On March 7, 2018, Tenaris’s (TS) implied volatility was 32.7%. Since March 8, 2017, it has increased from 26.4%.
On February 21, 2018, Tenaris released its 4Q17 financial results. Since then, its implied volatility has remained nearly unchanged, and its stock has risen nearly 7%. TS makes up 5.1% of the VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH). OIH has risen ~2% since February 21, 2018.
Tenaris’s 7-day stock price forecast
Tenaris stock will likely close between $36.79 and $33.61 in the next seven days based on its implied volatility. Its seven-day stock price forecast considers a normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%. TS stock was trading at $35.20 on March 7, 2018.
Implied volatility for TS’s peers
Weatherford International’s (WFT) implied volatility on March 7, 2018, was 62.8%, which implies that the stock could vary between $2.89 and $2.43 in the next seven days. Precision Drilling’s (PDS) implied volatility was ~58% on March 7. That implies that PDS stock could range between $3.21 and $2.73 in the next seven days. McDermott International’s (MDR) implied volatility was 43.6% on March 7. That implies that MDR stock could vary between $8.02 and $7.10 in the next seven days. You can read more about WFT in Market Realist’s Weatherford International: 4Q17 Earnings Overview.
Crude oil’s implied volatility
On March 7, 2018, crude oil’s implied volatility was 23.2%. Since February 21, 2018, its volatility has increased marginally. TS’s implied volatility was nearly unchanged during that period.
Next, we’ll look at TS’s correlation coefficient with crude oil.