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What Wall Street Expects from Starbucks’s Revenue in Fiscal 2018

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Jan. 15 2018, Updated 9:05 a.m. ET

Revenue expectations

For fiscal 2018, analysts expect Starbucks (SBUX) to post revenue of $24.57 billion, which represents growth of 9.8% from $22.39 billion in fiscal 2017. Fiscal 2018 revenue is expected to be affected by the pending acquisition of the East China business, refranchising of company-owned restaurants in Taiwan and Singapore, and closing of Teavana stores and their e-commerce platform.

In fiscal 2019, analysts expect the company’s revenue to rise 9.5% to $26.89 billion while the revenue is expected to rise 10.1% in fiscal 2020 to $29.60 billion.

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Management’s guidance

In the long run, Starbucks’s management expects its revenue growth to be in the high single digits, while its SSSG (same-store sales growth) is expected to be in the range of 3%–5%.

Revenue growth

Starbucks’s fiscal 2018 revenue growth is expected to be driven by the addition of new restaurants, positive SSSG, and growth in sales from the Channel Development segment. In fiscal 2018, the company’s management expects to open 2,300 restaurants globally. They expect to open 1,100 new restaurants in the CAP (China/Asia-Pacific) region, which includes 600 restaurants in China. In the Americas segment, they expect to open 900 restaurants, with an equal number of company-owned and franchised restaurants.

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The company’s management expects fiscal 2018 SSSG to be in the range of 3%–5%. The SSSG is expected to be driven by menu innovations, the enhancement of customer experience through the implementation of technological advancements, an increase in Starbucks Rewards memberships, the opening of Starbucks roasteries and Starbucks Reserves, and various marketing and promotional initiatives.

Peer comparisons

For the same period, analysts expect Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) and Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN) to post revenue growth of 10.6% and 2.3%, respectively. However, McDonald’s (MCD) revenue is expected to fall 12.1%.

Next, we’ll look at Starbucks’s EBIT margins in fiscal 2017.

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