Halliburton’s implied volatility in context
On January 4, 2018, Halliburton’s (HAL) implied volatility was ~27%. Halliburton’s 3Q17 earnings were announced on October 23, 2017. Since then, its implied volatility has risen. The implied volatility points towards a stock’s potential movement, as viewed by the option traders. The implied volatility can increase in a bearish market and decrease in a bullish market. Halliburton accounts for 2.7% of the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE). VDE has risen 12% since October 23, 2017—compared to a 22% rise in Halliburton’s stock price during this period.
Stock price forecast for Halliburton
In view of Halliburton’s implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%, Halliburton stock will likely close between $53.56 and $49.70 in the next seven days. Halliburton’s stock price was $51.63 on January 4, 2018.
Halliburton’s implied volatility compared to crude oil
In February 2016, crude oil’s implied volatility was ~78%. It was crude oil’s highest implied volatility since July 2014. Since the third week of July 2017, crude oil’s implied volatility has fallen from 29% to ~18%. Since the end of July 2017, Halliburton’s implied volatility has risen from 25% to ~27%.
Comparison with peers
CARBO Ceramics’ (CRR) implied volatility on January 4, 2018, was ~73%. It implies that CARBO Ceramic’s stock price could vary between $13.20 and $10.78 in the next seven days. Oil States International’s (OIS) implied volatility was ~34% on the day. Its stock price could vary between $32.66 and $29.74 in the next seven days. Helix Energy Solutions’ (HLX) implied volatility was ~46% on January 4. Its stock price could vary between $8.70 and $7.66 in the next seven days.
Next, we’ll discuss Halliburton’s short interest.