What to Expect for Carlyle’s Earnings and Revenue in 4Q17



Components of revenue

The Carlyle Group’s (CG) revenue comprises fee revenue, investment income, performance fees, interest income, and other income. The company’s fee revenue is further divided into three components: portfolio advisory fees (net), fund management fees, and transaction fees (net). Fund management fees rise as the company’s AUM (assets under management) rise.

Wall Street analysts’ high revenue estimate for Carlyle in 4Q17 is $1.0 billion, while their low estimate is $598 million. Their average estimate is $760.4 million, which reflects a significant rise from 4Q16. Between 3Q17 and 4Q17, the company’s fund management fees are expected to rise thanks to higher AUM.

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Earnings estimate

The average EPS (earnings per share) estimate for Carlyle in 4Q17 is $0.55, which implies a significant increase from 4Q16. Analysts have given a high EPS estimate of $1.06 and a low estimate of $0.31. The company’s performance fees are also expected to rise between 3Q17 and 4Q17, boosting its total revenue. Whereas Carlyle’s TTM (trailing-12-month) revenue per share is $36.65, peers (XLF) Ameriprise Financial (AMP), CBRE Group (CBG), and Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) have TTM revenue per share of $76.54, $40.62, and $37.62, respectively.


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