Papa John’s Revenue Estimates for the Next 4 Quarters

Rajiv  Nanjapla - Author

Dec. 4 2020, Updated 10:52 a.m. ET

Revenue estimates

For the next four quarters, analysts expect Papa John’s (PZZA) to post revenue of $1.83 billion, which represents growth of 5.5% from $1.73 billion in the same quarters the previous year. Its revenue growth is expected to be driven by positive SSSG (same-store sales growth) and unit growth.

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Revenue drivers

For 2017, Papa John’s management has set its SSSG guidance at 2%–4% for the North American region and 4%–6% for international markets. Analysts expect SSSG to be driven by an enhanced customer experience, menu innovations, and marketing and promotional initiatives.

In March 2017, the company launched Papa Track, which allows customers to track their pizzas from the oven to delivery. Continuing with its clean label and better ingredients, Papa John’s launched two pilot projects. First, the company introduced organic vegetable toppings for its pizzas across the Lexington market. The company claimed that customers liked the organic toppings. Second, the company tested a gluten-free crust made with ancient grains. It tested the crust in Los Angeles, Phoenix, St. Louis, Houston, and Nashville. On May 22, 2017, the company added the Bacon Cheddar Burger Pizza to its menu.

The company’s management expects to increase its unit count 4%–5%, which translates to 240–255 new restaurants. Most of the restaurants are expected to open in 2H17.

Peer comparisons

During the same period, Papa John’s peers Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) and Yum! Brands (YUM) are expected to post revenue growth of 10.1% and -43.6%, respectively.

Next, we’ll look at analysts’ earnings estimates.


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