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What Did the Market Suggest for Halliburton on July 14?

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Part 2
What Did the Market Suggest for Halliburton on July 14? PART 2 OF 4

Forecast for Halliburton’s 7-Day Price on July 14

Halliburton’s implied volatility

On July 14, 2017, Halliburton’s (HAL) implied volatility was ~26%. Halliburton’s implied volatility increased from 25% to the current level since its 1Q17 financial results were announced on April 24, 2017. Read Halliburton before the 2Q17 Results: Your Key Preview to learn more. Halliburton accounts for 3.3% of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES). Since March 31, XES has risen 21% compared to a 10% fall in Halliburton’s stock price.

Implied volatility for Halliburton’s peers

On July 14, CARBO Ceramics’ (CRR) implied volatility was ~84%. On the same day, Helix Energy Solutions Group’s (HLX) implied volatility was ~61%. The energy sector makes up 6.0% of the SPX-INDEX. The SPX-INDEX rose 14% in the past year—compared to a 3% fall in Halliburton’s stock price.

Forecast for Halliburton’s 7-Day Price on July 14

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Halliburton’s seven-day price forecast

Halliburton stock will likely close between $45.84 and $42.60 in the next seven days—based on Halliburton’s implied volatility. We can assume a normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%. Halliburton’s stock price was $44.22 on July 14, 2017.

On July 14, National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) implied volatility was ~32%. Read What Analysts Expect from National Oilwell Varco’s 2Q17 Earnings to learn more. Energy stocks and crude oil prices are usually correlated.

What’s Halliburton’s correlation with crude oil prices? Let’s find this out in the next part.

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