NVR Inc

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  • uploads///MVA
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Housing Stocks Rallied Then Came to a Halt in December

    Housing has been a bright spot in the US economy. But over the past month, housing stocks haven’t been performing well. ITB, a housing-focused fund, has fallen 4.7%.

    By Lara Sheldon
  • uploads///MR Retail Sales
    Consumer

    Retail sales increase 0.2% in July, homebuilder opportunity ahead

    Retail sales data gives analysts insight into the strength of the consumer Consumption is the biggest driver of the U.S. economy and accounts for 70% of GDP. Consumption has been relatively subdued since the recession began, as Americans have boosted their savings rate and spent only on essentials. The real estate bubble drove consumption in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR IBD TIPP
    Consumer

    Economic optimism rebounds, but it still remains depressed

    The IBD/TIPP Optimism Index increased by 3 points to 41.4 versus 38.4 in October. It’s well below its 12-month average of 45.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Richmond Fed
    Consumer

    Manufacturing activity keeps improving in the Mid-Atlantic region

    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey looks at business conditions in the Fed’s fifth district, which covers Washington, DC, Baltimore, Richmond, and Charlotte.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Business Inventories
    Consumer

    Business inventories rise slower than sales, good for activity

    This series focuses on industrial and manufacturing releases that will affect the real estate sector. Since homebuilders are highly cyclical, housing analysts watch the manufacturing data closely.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR PPI
    Consumer

    Why the Producer Price Index increasing 0.8% in June will hurt homebuilders

    The Producer Price Index measures inflation at the wholesale level Analysts have typically taken inflation at the wholesale level to predict inflation at the consumer level. In a normal business environment, producers pass these increased costs to consumers, which would decrease disposable income if wages didn’t rise accordingly. Investors consider a little inflation a good thing. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
    Consumer

    Bloomberg consumer comfort index hits a post-recession high, good for homebuilders

    The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to -28.3 for the week ending June 23 The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is a weekly sentiment index that covers three critical variables: respondents’ perception of the state of the economy, their evaluation of their personal finances, and whether it’s a good time to purchase goods and services. The […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts LT
    Consumer

    How D.R. Horton plans to address the first-time homebuyer

    D.R. Horton CEO Donald Tomnitz said that the first-time homebuyer will drive the next leg in the sector and has been underserved in this recovery.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • New York PMI falls in May
    Consumer

    New York PMI falls in May

    The Institute of Supply Management index assesses the state of manufacturing in the New York City Metropolitan Area The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) New York Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) is similar to the ISM PMI , however, it covers the New York City area. The ISM PMI looks at various business indices, like new […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CFNAI
    Consumer

    The Chicago Fed National Activity Index shows economic expansion

    The Chicago Fed National Activity Index measures whether the economy is expanding on, above, or below its historical trend.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Construction Spending
    Consumer

    Construction spending ticks up in April

    Construction spending is a major driver of job growth in the U.S. economy The Construction Put in Place Survey is released monthly by the Census Bureau that measures the total dollar value of construction work done in the U.S. It covers both the public and private sector and includes new structures as well as improvements […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR household formation
    Consumer

    Why household formation drives homebuilder demand (Part 1)

    Low household formation numbers over the past five years will drive homebuilder demand going forward Since the financial crisis began, demand for new construction has fallen, as household formation numbers have dropped. The low household formation numbers have been driven by a poor economy—not by demographics. This represents pent-up demand that must be satisfied in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Empire State Manufacturing Survey
    Consumer

    Empire State Manufacturing Index improves, outlook remains bright

    Overall, the report shows the economy is still expanding moderately, and firms are generally optimistic about the future.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///tom rumble lvzopTxjOU unsplash
    Consumer

    Federal Reserve forecasts 2.55% GDP growth in 2013

    The Federal Reserve includes formal economic forecasts like GDP in the minutes from its Federal Open Market Committee (or FOMC) meetings.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///New Home Sales  year
    Consumer

    New home sales increase 29% from a year ago, positive for homebuilder stocks

    May new home sales, as reported by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, increased 2.1% from April New home sales increased to an annualized pace of 454,000, up 2.3% from April (which was revised upward from an initial estimate of 454,000 to 466,000) and up 29% from a year ago. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR CPI
    Consumer

    Why the subdued Consumer Price Index gives the Fed an excuse

    This report will probably hold the hawks on the Fed at bay and allow them to continue to maintain ultra-low interest rates. That said, the bond market has been pricing in a tapering of quantitative easing.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Richmond Fed
    Consumer

    Mid-Atlantic manufacturing remains sluggish, bad news for NVR?

    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey looks at business conditions in the Fed’s fifth district, which covers Washington, DC, Baltimore, Richmond, and Charlotte The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is sent out to companies in the Mid-Atlantic states and covers current business conditions, shipments, new orders, backlog, and inventory. It’s similar to the other surveys put out […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Foreclosure Completions
    Consumer

    Foreclosure completions drop again in April

    Foreclosure starts are a leading indicator of future housing supply and pricing Foreclosure activity is closely watched by investors, realtors and home builders alike because they provide a forecast of future housing supply. Foreclosure timelines can vary widely by state, depending on whether a foreclosure needs to be approved by a judge. The large foreclosure […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR Richmond Fed
    Consumer

    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey dives in July, homebuilders unaffected

    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey looks at business conditions in the Fed’s fifth district, which covers Washington, DC, Baltimore, Richmond, and Charlotte The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is sent out to companies in the Mid-Atlantic states and covers current business conditions, shipments, new orders, backlog, and inventory. It’s similar to the other surveys put out […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///tom rumble lvzopTxjOU unsplash
    Consumer

    Real Estate Price Appreciation widely dispersed by location

    The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) rose 5.1% year-over-year to $157,600. The ZHVI is a modeled index, based on the average zillow estimate of home values in each area. The Zillow index is not solely based on home sales, so it isn’t really a comparable index to Case-Schiller. It is closer to Radar Logic, which […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ISM PMI
    Consumer

    Institute of Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index falls in April

    The Institute of Supply Management index assesses the state of manufacturing in the United States. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) is similar to the other regional PMI indices, however it covers the entire country. The ISM PMI looks at various business indices like new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, inventory, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GDP
    Consumer

    First quarter GDP revised downward to +2.4%

    Increases in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of economic growth Gross domestic product is what is referred to generally as “the economy.”  It is the sum of consumption, investment, and government spending. Another way to think of GDP is the output of goods and services produced by labor and property in the U.S. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Industrial Production
    Consumer

    Industrial production rebounds in August, good for homebuilders

    Industrial production is a bellwether of economic activity Industrial production is a good top-down macroeconomic indicator that helps forecast the labor market, final demand, consumption, and inflation. While manufacturing is no longer the primary driver of the U.S. economy, it still influences the economy to a large degree—particularly for unskilled workers. U.S. manufacturing has been […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts
    Consumer

    Housing starts dampened by wet weather in the Midwest

    Housing starts are a critical predictor of future home builder sales Housing starts are released jointly by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Analysts use the information to anticipate future production for home builders, future demand for raw materials, and labor costs. This data will even affect the forecasts for […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Philly Fed
    Consumer

    Philly Fed Index drops after huge months, but outlook optimistic

    The Philadelphia Fed Survey is an important survey about economic expectations in the Mid-Atlantic region The diffusion index is based on the number of businesses reporting increased activity less the number of businesses reporting decreased activity. It also includes an index of expectations six months out. The survey drills down into orders and shipments, employment, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///mortgage rate long term
    Consumer

    Bernanke’s comments send mortgage rates screaming higher

    The recent bond market sell-off bumps up mortgage rates again Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market, which is why Bernanke and the Fed began conducting quantitative easing (or QE) in the first place. Lower rates allow homeowners to refinance, which increases their disposable income and helps stimulate economic growth. Lower rates enable first-time home […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///IBD TIPP Optimism Index
    Consumer

    IBD / TIPP economic optimism index falls in July, but don’t blame interest rates

    The Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Optimism Index is considered to be a preview of the upcoming consumer confidence indices The Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Optimism Index has a good track record of predicting how the two major consumer confidence indices – the Conference Board and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence indices – will look when they are released later in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Richmond Fed
    Consumer

    Mid-Atlantic manufacturing is picking up, helping homebuilders

    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey looks at business conditions in the Fed’s fifth district, which covers Washington, DC, Baltimore, Richmond, and Charlotte.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///len pe
    Earnings Report

    How Does Lennar Compare to Its Peers?

    Lennar showed mixed results compared to its peers based on the PE and PBV ratios. The ETFs outperformed Lennar based on the PE and PBV ratios.

    By Gabriel Kane
  • uploads///Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
    Consumer

    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index falls in the week ending May 5

    The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to -29.5 for the week ending May 5th The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is a weekly sentiment index that covers three critical variables: the respondent’s perception of the state of the economy, their evaluation of their personal finances, and whether it is a good time to purchase goods and […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NVR PE MC
    Consumer

    Analysing NVR, DPZ, ENTA And QLYS Stocks

    Growth stock analysis   NVR NVR’s (NVR) net income has grown at a 3-year and 5-year average of 24% and 24.3% respectively. The company’s pre-tax margin grew from 9.9% in 2013 to 13.4% in 2017. The stock prices have beaten the residential construction industry between 2013 and 2017. The stock was beaten in 2013 and […]

    By Amanda Lawrence
  • uploads///GROWTH INDEX EXPO TO IT
    Consumer

    Total Returns and Sector Exposure for Growth Indexes

    If we dig into the S&P 500 and the S&P Growth indexes, we can see that they have the highest exposure to information technology (or IT).

    By Amanda Lawrence
  • uploads///Housing Starts LT
    Consumer

    Homebuilder Earnings and Housing Data on Tap this Week

    This week is relatively data-light. However, a slew of reports will interest real estate investors.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • Consumer

    Why Greenlight Capital opened a new position in McDermott

    An August report on Bloomberg said the company was a potential takeover target on the back of a share price decline due to cost overruns at some of its projects.

    By Samantha Nielson
  • uploads///KB Home Geographic Expposure
    Consumer

    A key advantage: Why KB Home is situated in attractive markets

    KB Home (KBH) is a Los Angeles–based homebuilder that focuses on first-time, move-up, and active adult homebuyers. Its price point is at the low end.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Consumer

    The Fed maintains its QE policy but warns not to expect QE4EVA

    The Fed made no changes at its October meeting. Given that it chose not to taper at the September meeting and the shutdown, no one was really surprised.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Great Depression Bear
    Consumer

    Comparing the Great Depression’s housing bear market with today’s

    The real estate bubble of the 2000s was bigger than the real estate bubble of the 1920s In many ways, the dual stock market and real estate bubbles of the 1920s were a mirror image of the 2000s market collapse. The 1920s real estate boom peaked in 1925, and the stock market collapsed four years […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Real Estate Bubbles
    Consumer

    Comparing the 1920s and 2000s real estate bubbles

    The real estate bubble of the 2000s was bigger than the real estate bubble of the 1920s In many ways, the dual stock market and real estate bubbles of the 1920s were a mirror image of the 2000s market collapse. The 1920s real estate boom peaked in 1925, and the stock market collapsed four years […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
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