Black Stone Minerals (BSM), a mineral interest owner structured as an MLP, was the strongest E&P (exploration and production) stock last week, rising 11.1%.
To conclude our series on the biggest movers in the upstream and oilfield service sectors, we’ll now look at Wall Street’s recommendations for this week’s strongest and weakest stocks.
On December 6–13, 2017, our list of oil-weighted stocks fell 1.6%, while US crude oil prices rose 1.1%. US crude oil outperformed these oil-weighted stocks.
Kosmos Energy (KOS) announced its 1Q17 earnings before the market opened on May 8, 2017. KOS reported a worse-than-expected loss of ~$43 million in 1Q17.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose by 50,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 10.20 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in July 2017 compared to the previous month.
Short interest in Occidental Petroleum’s stock On June 30, 2017, Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) short interest stood at ~10.5 million, and its average daily volume was ~5.3 million, meaning that its short interest ratio was ~2.0x. The average daily volume was based on the volume between June 16 and June 30, 2017 Occidental Petroleum’s short interest ratio […]
As of June 30, 2017, Devon Energy’s (DVN) total shares shorted (or short interest) stood at ~10.4 million, whereas its average daily volume was ~5.9 million.
As of June 30, 2017, Marathon Oil’s (MRO) total shares shorted (or short interest) stood at ~51.7 million, whereas its average daily volume was ~15.1 million.
As of June 14, 2017, Marathon Oil’s (MRO) total shares shorted (or short interest) stood at ~46.89 million, whereas its average daily volume is ~14.34 million.
On May 15, 2017, Kosmos Energy’s (KOS) total shares shorted (or short interest) stood at ~32.4 million, and its average daily volume was ~14.3 million.
In 1Q17, Kosmos Energy (KOS) reported total crude oil (USO) sales volumes of 2.0 MMBbls (million barrels), ~4% higher compared to its 1Q16 crude oil sales volumes of 1.9 MMBbls.
Kosmos Energy released its 1Q17 earnings before the market opened on May 8, 2017. Since its earnings release, KOS stock has been on a strong upward trend, rising from $5.95 to $6.65.
Oil prices fell because of growing concerns about rising US crude oil production. The US oil rig count rose by 15 to 566 for the week ending on January 27.
On February 11, US crude oil touched a 12-year low. From February 11 to December 12, the active futures contracts rose 101.6% on a closing price basis.
From November 28 to December 5, 2016, an equally weighted basket of oil stocks rose 15.8% compared to a 10.0% rise in WTI crude oil futures contracts for January.
On February 11, US crude oil touched a 12-year low. From February 11–November 21, US crude oil active futures contracts rose 65.3% on a closing price basis.
In last five days, energy stocks outperformed crude oil. The rise in energy stocks against a 3.5% fall in oil prices coincides with Trump’s energy policy.
Market intelligence company PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose by 4.4% between July 21–July 27, 2016. Gas consumption rose for the seventh time in the last eight weeks.
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose by 2% from July 14–20. Natural gas consumption rose for the sixth time in the last seven weeks.
Market intelligence company PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose by 4.4% for the week ended July 13, 2016. compared with the previous week.
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption fell by 3.7% between June 30, 2016, and July 6, 2016. This was the first fall in the last five weeks.
The relationship between crude oil inventories and crude oil prices is inverse. Crude oil prices bottomed out in early 2016. Inventories topped out as well.
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose marginally for the second straight week for the week ending June 15—compared to the previous week.
In 2012 and 2014, crude oil inventories fell in May. The five-year average from 2011 to 2015 also indicates that crude oil inventories typically fall in May.
From February 26, 2016, to April 22, 2016, the US Dollar Index has fallen around 3%. The last 30-day correlation with crude oil stood at -24% on April 22.
Generally, WTI volatility has been rising since June 20, 2014. US crude oil (USO) made a high of $107.26 on a closing basis before it started to decline.
In the last five years, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices have a correlation 63.7% with the ten-year and two-year constant maturity T-notes spread.
After Mohammad Bin Salman Al-Saud’s interview on April 1, investors turned bearish on crude oil. During the last two trading sessions, US crude oil lost about 6.8%.
Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince indicated that a production freeze will only be possible if Iran participates in limiting its production to January 2016 levels.
On March 24, 2016, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices fell for the second consecutive day to close at $39.46 per barrel, below the psychological level of $40.
WTI crude oil futures made lows of $26.55 and 26.21 as of January 20 and February 11, respectively, on a closing basis. After touching lows near $26, it rebounded.
The OPEC and non-OPEC deal and a weaker dollar helped crude oil prices rally in the last two weeks. However, crude may not be able to sustain its gains.
Middle East nations like Saudi Arabia and Iran are sensing the need to diversify their economies. Yet Saudi Arabia hasn’t yet signaled oil production cuts.
Saudi Arabia hasn’t recently signaled any production cuts. This simply points toward Saudi Arabia’s plan to grab more market share, even at lower cost.
Iranian oil is likely to hit the market when the latter is already oversupplied. This can affect the stocks that operate with a high production mix in oil.
The debt of XOP upstream companies operating with a production mix of crude oil greater than 90% fell by an average of 1% on a YoY (year-over-year) basis in 3Q15.
Within the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), the stocks operating with a production mix of crude oil greater than 90% have fallen by 14.6% this month, as of January 9.
In 3Q15, refiners Phillips 66, Valero Energy, Delek US, and Alon USA Energy posted contraction in sales of 7%, 5%, 4%, and 3%, respectively, on a YoY basis.
The change in the price of downstreams is negatively correlated to that of upstreams. Downstreams draw revenue from refining and marketing petroleum products.
Crude oil near $40 isn’t economically feasible for US shale oil producers to extract and sell it in the market. OPEC doesn’t want to reduce the production.
The weighted production mixes of crude oil and natural gas in the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) are about 32% and 39%, respectively.
Yesterday, the API reported that the crude oil stockpile fell by 3.2 MMbbls for the week ending June 19. It’s a precursor to Wednesday’s inventory report from the EIA.
The US rig count fell by 40% compared to a year ago, but 9.6 million bpd were still pumped in the United States, the highest since 1970. Hedging by oil companies has helped.
The EIA will publish the weekly crude oil inventory report on Wednesday, June 3, 2015. Last week, the US commercial crude oil stockpile fell by 2.8 MMbbls.
Barring the two years of one-off non-cash impairment charges, SWN saw its profits grow steadily along with its revenues. Its earnings are up well over 200% between 2007 and 2013. That means SWN’s net profit margin has also remained steady near the ~20% level over the years.
The Baupost Group added a position in SunEdison Semiconductor (SEMI) that accounted for 1.14% of the fund’s total second quarter portfolio. SunEdison Semiconductor develops, manufactures, and sells silicon wafers to the semiconductor industry.
The Baupost Group added a position in Theravance Biopharma Inc. (TBPH) that accounted for 9.89% of the fund’s total second quarter portfolio. Theravance Biopharma was recently spun out of Theravance (THRX).
The Baupost Group added a stake in eBay Inc. (EBAY) that accounted for 3.62% of the fund’s total second quarter portfolio. eBay is a global technology company that enables commerce through three reportable segments—Marketplaces, Payments, and Enterprise.
The size of the fund’s U.S. long portfolio increased 48% to $6.14 billion in the second quarter from $4.14 billion in the first quarter. The fund’s top positions include Micron Technology, Idenix Pharmaceuticals, and Viasat.
