Hatteras Financial Corp

Latest Hatteras Financial Corp News and Updates

  • uploads///Twos Tens
    Financials

    Strong economic data is causing the yield curve to steepen

    The shape of the yield curve matters almost as much as the absolute level of interest rates to financial companies As a general rule, financial companies (banks, REITs) borrow short and lend long. What this means is that they lever their balance sheet by borrowing at short-term interest rates and generally invest in longer-maturity assets, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Consumer

    What to watch for in real estate next week

    The week ahead Earnings season is pretty much over. Only five companies will report next week; nobody related to real estate is reporting. Next week is not all that heavy data-wise, although we will get the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index and Pending Home Sales. The Case-Schiller data will be from March, which should begin […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Assets
    Financials

    The Fed maintains its policy on reinvesting QE assets

    The Fed’s decision to reinvest QE assets in the markets affects REITs. It keeps a bid under TBAs, and it supports MBS values in general.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Must-know: Why the jobs report slammed Ginnie Mae TBAs

    Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report was the catalyst for a heavy sell-off in the bond market. The ten-year bond sold off by 15 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Import Price Index
    Financials

    Import prices fall in May

    Import prices are an important driver of inflation The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its U.S. Import and Export Price Indices monthly. The report keeps track of import prices by locality, type, and fuel/non-fuel. It also separates commodities and non-commodities. Commodity prices tend to be more volatile than non-commodity prices, so it makes sense to […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Weekly Realist real estate roundup (Part 2)

    Back to Part 1 Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing, and they’re the investment of choice for mortgage REITs  When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Ginnie Mae TBAs rally before the Fed meeting

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing and the investment of choice for mortgage REITs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities, it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced (also know as the TBA) market. The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Real Estate

    The End Of Quantitative Easing Could Make Mortgage REITs Vulnerable

    Big agency REITs like Annaly (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC) took the chance to deleverage their balance sheets after the warning in the spring of 2013.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///HARP Refinances
    Financials

    Why the HARP refis dry up as rates rise, lowering prepay speeds

    HARP was designed to help people who wanted to stay in their home and who had adjustable-rate mortgages where they wouldn’t be able to afford the payment once the mortgage adjusted upward.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MFA Financial
    Financials

    Why home price appreciation has saved MFA Financial

    MFA Financial is a REIT that invests in both agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities MFA Financial (MFA) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in both agency (government-guaranteed) and non-agency (non-guaranteed) mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Its portfolio is primarily invested in hybrids, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM), and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. It chooses to invest […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR NFIB
    Financials

    NFIB Small Business Survey flashes warning signs for REITs

    The National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Survey is a finger on the pulse of small business.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBAs rally as Ben Bernanke soothes the bond market, better for mortgage REITs

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing, and they’re the investment of choice for mortgage REITs  When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities, it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBAs flat as rates stabilize, good for mortgage REITs

    Last week was a relatively light week data-wise, and many market participants were off work ahead of the Labor Day weekend.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Dallas Fed
    Financials

    The Dallas Fed explains why the Texas housing market is hot

    The General Business Activity Index rose to 11.4 from 7 the month before. The six-month outlook rose as well, to 18.7 from 11.8. Capital expenditures fell, although most other sub-indices were increasing.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • ADP Payrolls come in lower than expected
    Financials

    ADP Payrolls come in lower than expected

    The ADP National Employment Report is a monthly preview of the Labor Department’s Jobs Report Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is a global provider of business outsourcing. They provide a range of services from human resources to payroll. The ADP National Employment Report is published monthly by the ADP Research Institute. It provides a snapshot of […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinances increase as interest rates fall after the Fed surprise

    The MBA Refinance Index increases again after the Fed maintains its pace of QE (quantitative easing) The Refinance Index rose 3% (to 1,947 from 1,889) after the Fed decided to maintain its current pace of asset purchases. The bond market has been re-adjusting to the idea that we may see the end of quantitative easing soon, and […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Dallas Fed
    Financials

    Dallas Fed bounces back in May

    The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is a manufacturing-focused index of business activity The Dallas Fed conducts its Texas Manufacturing Survey monthly, and it is similar to many of the other regional Fed surveys, like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index or the Philly Fed. These are all diffusion type indices […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    MBA Refinance index falls; prepayment worries fade into the background

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index that forecasts mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    10-year bond breaks out of its trading range on positive reports

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing, and they’re the investment of choice for mortgage REITs  When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///HARP Refinances
    Financials

    HARP refinances fall in Q2 as rates increase, effect on REITs

    The Home Affordable Refinance Program permits homeowners with negative equity in their homes to refinance at today’s lower rates The Home Affordable Refinance Program was instituted in 2009 to allow homeowners with negative equity to take advantage of today’s low interest rate environment. Before HARP, banks wouldn’t lend more than the home’s value. In real-estate […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Dallas Fed
    Financials

    Manufacturing decelerates in the Dallas region, affecting REITs

    The Dallas Fed survey asks about output, employment, orders, prices, shipments, inventories, capacity utilization, prices, capital expenditures, and some other indicators.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Import Price Index
    Financials

    Must-know: Import prices fall, keeping inflation well-contained

    Inflation isn’t the Fed’s biggest concern at the moment. If anything, it’s worried that inflation is too low.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NFIB Small Business Optimism
    Financials

    Must-know: NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey slips in October

    When forecasting the Fed’s next move, it pays to focus on small business earnings as much as or more than the earnings of, say, Apple.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///HARP Refinances
    Financials

    HARP refinances drop off as interest rates for mortgages increase

    HARP refinances fell to 30,000 in December from 38,700 in November.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NLY
    Financials

    Annaly book value per share declines with the rest of the sector

    Annaly Capital is the biggest U.S. mortgage REIT by market capitalization Annaly Capital (NLY) is a self-managed REIT that invests in a variety of real estate–related securities, including pass-through certificates, collateralized mortgage obligations, callable agency debt, and other mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Recently, Annaly has focused on the agency product, and 90% of its portfolio has […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Is the secular bond bull market over? A primer on interest rate risk, Part 6

    Back to Part 5 Non-agency mortgage backed securities – interest rate risk and credit risk When we think of non-agency paper, we have both interest rate risk and credit risk. The interest rate risk borne by non-agency mortgage backed securities is more or less the same as agency paper. They have the same exact issues […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Mortgage Bankers Association Refi Index rises in the week ending May 3

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index to forecast mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of refinance activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinances fall as prepayment risk is much lower than 1 year ago

    The Refinance Index fell 3% (from 1,598 to 1,548), as rates rose 15 basis points. Refinances have been dropping like a stone.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Consumer

    What exactly is quantitative easing? Part 5

    Back to part 4 Mark-to-market issues The Fed does actually have a profit and loss statement and it is a line item on the Federal Budget. Since quantitative easing began, the Fed has profited from this activity as it has pushed up prices through its own buying. As it stops purchasing MBS and Treasuries, it […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Weekly mortgage applications review (Part 4)

    Back to Part 3 The MBA Refinance Index falls for the eighth straight week The Refinance Index fell to 0.1% (to 2,247 from 2,245)  in the context of a volatile week in the bond market. The bond market has been re-adjusting to the idea that we may see the end of quantitative easing in fall. That said, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Debt
    Financials

    Consumer debt falls, low interest and high prepayments for REITs

    Elevated levels of consumer debt have been one of the reasons why the recovery has been so weak.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Convexity
    Financials

    Primer on mortgage backed securities, Part 5

    Continued from Primer on mortgage backed securities, Part 4. Prepayment risk Prepayment risk and interest rate risk go hand-in-hand. The main difference between a mortgage backed security and a government bond is that with a government bond, you know exactly when you will get your principal and interest payments. If you purchase a 7-year Treasury […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Sovereign Yields
    Financials

    Is it something Bernanke said? Or something else?

    Sovereign yields have been rising since the beginning of May Investors in the U.S. have been focused on the rising yield of the 10-year bond since the beginning of May. Since bottoming out at 1.63% on May 1st, the U.S. 10-year yield has been rising in a dramatic fashion, to close at 2.17% as of […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Investing in REITs during a rising interest rate environment

    We may see the occasional cyclical bond bull markets in the context of a secular bear market, but the overall trend is toward increasing interest rates.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBS tranching
    Financials

    Primer on mortgage backed securities, Part 1

    What are mortgage backed securities? Mortgage backed securities are pools of individual mortgages that have similar characteristics. They allow a relatively illiquid asset (an individual home mortgage) to be converted into a very liquid asset that can be traded with relative ease. They also allow an issuer to divide up the cash flows in order […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Must-read: Worst day for Fannie to-be-announced loans since sell-off began

    Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing, and they’re the investment of choice for mortgage REITs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities, it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Dallas Fed
    Financials

    Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index falls in June, but still positive

    The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is a manufacturing-focused index of business activity The Dallas Fed conducts its Texas Manufacturing Survey monthly, and it’s similar to many of the other regional Fed surveys, like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, or the Philly Fed. These are all diffusion-type indices that ask respondents whether a […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Is the secular bond bull market over? A primer on interest rate risk, Part 4

    Back to Part 3 Interest rate risk and mortgage backed securities Mortgage backed securities have different interest rate risk than conventional Treasuries and corporate bonds. This is because of prepayment risk. When interest rates fall, borrowers will typically refinance their mortgages. To an investor, they will get their pro-rate allocation of principal early. They will not get […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Ginnie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Ginnie Mae TBAs flat, low volatility good for mortgage REITs

    Finally, we saw a week of calm in the bond market last week.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Balance Sheet
    Financials

    Fed balance sheet pushes $3.5 trillion, negative REITs outlook

    The Fed’s balance sheet rose to over $3.48 trillion in Q2 as quantitative easing went into overdrive The Fed’s asset purchase program, also known as quantitative easing, has swelled the Fed’s balance sheet from under $1 trillion pre-crisis to an all-time high of $3.48 trillion. The Fed has pursued this strategy in order to drive down […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    The Fed keeps the punch bowl around a little longer

    The ten-year bond rallied during the week, with the yield falling to 2.73%. The markets were expecting some sort of reduction in asset purchases and were caught off guard when the Fed decided to stand pat.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Unemployment Forecast
    Financials

    Federal Reserve significantly lowers unemployment forecast

    The Federal Reserve includes formal economic forecasts in the minutes from its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meetings The Federal Reserve typically releases a short press release after its two day FOMC meeting, with a general overview and its decision on interest rates. A month later, they release the actual minutes of the meeting which […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MFA Book Value
    Earnings Report

    MFA Financial Reports a Drop in Book Value per Share

    MFA Financial’s (MFA) book value per share fell from $7.96 in the second quarter of 2015 to $7.70 in the third quarter.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBAs rally as Fed debates end of quantitative easing

    Trading in Fannie Mae TBAs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product that can be traded. TBAs settle once a month, and […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///sharon mccutcheon lnbXtxFGZw unsplash
    Financials

    Fed’s Balance Sheet swells to $3.2 Trillion

    The Fed’s balance sheet rose to over $3 trillion in Q1 as quantitative easing goes into overdrive.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ADP Payrolls
    Financials

    ADP signals a good payroll report, which could hurt REITs

    Private sector employment increased by 191,000 in March. January’s numbers were revised upward from 139,000 to 178,000.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR TIC flows
    Financials

    High foreign net purchases of U.S. assets in July, good for REITs

    For the first time since January, foreigners are net buyers of U.S. assets. If foreign investors return to selling mortgage-backed securities, the REITs will feel the pain.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///HAMP modifications
    Financials

    HAMP modifications fall to 11,900 in the month of April

    The Home Affordable Modification Program is one of President Obama’s programs to provide relief to distressed home owners The Home Affordable Modification Program lowers the monthly payments for borrowers by reducing the interest rate or extending the term of the loan. So far, the Federal Housing Finance Agency has resisted allowing principal reductions. They will, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond intraday
    Financials

    Must-know: Bonds sell off on the October FOMC minutes

    Lately, there are two adjectives the Fed uses to characterize economic data points—”moderate” and “modest.”

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    Why bonds were in for a wild ride last week

    The ten-year bond influences everything from mortgage rates to corporate debt. It’s now the benchmark for long-term U.S. interest rates.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Real Estate

    Do REITs need to fear another refi wave?

    It looks like the MBA refinance index is still flat on its back. So while we could see a pickup in refis, so far it hasn’t materialized.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GN FN spread
    Real Estate

    The markets react to new insurance guidelines

    After Obama announced the new insurance guidelines, the mortgage-backed securities market, especially the TBA market, reacted violently.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Are lower rates enough to trigger another refinance wave?

    The increase in rates has basically put prepayment worries on the back burner for REITs. The lack of a reaction in the refinance index on the back of a drop in rates could mean we’re finally seeing prepayment burnout. This would be good news for REITs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Assets
    Financials

    Quantitative Easing Is Over, But What About The Fed Balance Sheet?

    The “elephant in the room” at the Fed is that rates need to return to more normal historical levels at some point. This will be in the context of a massive Fed balance sheet. This creates issues on many different levels.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///AGNC Book Value Per Share
    Financials

    American Capital Agency’s book value per share increases

    American Capital Agency’s (AGNC) book value per share increased from $25.54 in the third quarter to $25.74 in the fourth quarter.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NLY leverage
    Financials

    Annaly bumps up its leverage in 3rd quarter 2014

    How do agency REITs pay such high dividends while investing in securities that don’t pay much? Mortgage REITs like Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency (AGNC), MFA Financial (MFA), Capstead (CMO), and Hatteras (HTS) tend to have high dividend yield. Yet agency mortgage-backed securities don’t pay low-double-digit returns. To achieve these sorts of returns, REITs—particularly agency […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    An Old Headache Returns: Increased Prepayment Speeds Up

    The Mortgage Bankers Association (or MBA) Refinance Index rose 66% from 1,349 to 2,245 as rates finally fell enough to allow refinances.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • What exactly is quantitative easing? Part 1
    Consumer

    What exactly is quantitative easing? Part 1

    The dual mandate The Federal Reserve is entrusted with monitoring the U.S. money supply, supervising the banking system, and using monetary policy to drive the economy. The Fed’s role in driving the economy is based on a dual mandate – that the Fed must fight inflation and maximize employment. The Fed had a sole mandate […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    MBA Refinance Index continues to fall

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index to forecast mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  Inflation forecast
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Why Inflation Remains Too Low for the Fed

    At the March 2016 FOMC meeting, the Fed took down its 2016 inflation forecast from 1.6% to 1.2%. The stronger dollar is affecting commodity prices and imports, and that’s keeping a lid on inflation.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MFA Book Value
    Earnings Report

    MFA Financial: Book Value per Share Dropped as MBS Values Fell

    MFA Financial’s (MFA) book value per share fell from $7.70 in 3Q15 to $7.47 in 4Q15. Losses on agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities drove the drop.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///AGNC Q portfolio
    Earnings Report

    Why American Capital Agency shortened duration during the quarter

    As one of the largest agency REITs, American Capital Agency (AGNC) invests primarily in mortgage-backed securities that are guaranteed by the US government.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ADP Payrolls
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    ADP Payroll Report Is Published: Are Forecasts For Friday Too High?

    If the payroll numbers on Friday come in better than expected, a sell-off in bonds can raise interest rates further as investors bet on recovery and the the timing of “normalization,” the Fed’s term for raising rates off the zero bound.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinance applications fall in spite of lower rates

    The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (or MBA) refinance index fell 0.3% (from 1,297.5 to 1,293) even as the bond market rallied 4 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NLY dividend
    Financials

    Annaly CEO Wellington Denahan shares her vision for the future

    On the company’s conference call to analysts and investors, Annaly CEO Wellington Denahan addressed the current interest rate environment and where she saw the company heading in the future.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Financials

    Must-know: Why bonds rallied despite weakness overseas

    We’ll see where mortgage rates have been, and we’ll go over the weekly economic data and earnings announcements. Then we’ll look forward to what’s coming up the following week.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ADP Payrolls
    Financials

    ADP’s payroll numbers predict a good jobs report, affecting REITs

    Private-sector employment increased by 281,000 in June. May’s number was 179,000. In terms of industries, professional and business services increased the most, by 53,000.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ADP Payrolls
    Financials

    Why ADP’s jobs report forecasts the outlook of May’s BLS report

    Interestingly, the ADP employment report provides a very tight correlation with the BLS’s revised payroll numbers. The BLS revises its payroll data twice, and the ADP number comes out before the first estimate.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • Financials

    Annaly presses mortgage-backed securities and increases leverage

    When the Fed hinted at tapering at the June 2013 FOMC meeting, rates began to rise and REITs were clobbered. The hardest-hit were agency REITs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinances continue to drop, meaning good news for REITs

    The Refinance Index fell 0.2% (from 1,693 to 1,690), as rates fell 2 basis points. Refinances have been dropping like a stone.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ADP Payrolls
    Financials

    Why Automatic Data Processing predicts a weak jobs report

    Private sector employment increased by 175,000 in January. December’s numbers were revised downward from 238,000 to 227,000.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed GDP Forecast
    Financials

    Why the Fed maintained its forecast for the US economy in 2014

    In this part of this series, we’ll look at the Fed’s GDP forecast for 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016, and also at how its forecast for 2014 GDP growth has changed

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Will Mel Watt save the day for originators as refinances rise?

    The Refinance Index rose 2% (from 1,602 to 1,635), even though rates were up 10 basis points. The bond market has been readjusting.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    The Mortgage Bankers Association Refinance Index turns down again

    The Refinance Index fell 6.5% (from 2,76 to 1,941) even though rates fell. But the week was shortened by the Veteran’s Day holiday.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///RWT
    Financials

    Non-agency REIT Redwood Trust’s book value per share dips slightly

    Redwood Trust is a non-agency mortgage REIT that focuses on mortgage banking activities and invests in mortgages and other real estate–related assets.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///LPS prepayment speeds
    Financials

    Why smart prepayment analysis means higher dividends

    Refinancing activity affects prepayment speeds, which are a critical driver of mortgage REIT returns.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Prepayment burnout? Refinance activity falls despite drop in rates

    The MBA Refinance Index increases again after the Fed maintained its pace of QE (quantitative easing) The Refinance Index fell 1.3% (from 2,061 from 2,034) in spite of the bond market rally on the back of a solution to the shutdown. The bond market has been readjusting to the idea that we may see the […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR unemployment
    Financials

    September jobs report disappoints, December taper off the table

    The economy added 148,000 jobs in September—lower than the consensus forecast of 180,000. August was revised upward to 193,000 jobs from 169,000.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fannie Mae TBA
    Financials

    Fannie Mae TBAs fall slightly as the bond market sells off

    Trading in Fannie Mae TBAs When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (or MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product that can be traded. TBAs settle once a month, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Recommendation: What does the Fed’s move mean for REITs?

    The Fed decided to stand pat The Fed decided to maintain its current pace of asset purchases at the FOMC meeting last week. The Fed was surprised at the market’s reaction, but it shouldn’t have been. At the last Fed meeting, Bernanke said that the Fed expects unemployment to continue to fall (check), and if […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR homeownership rate
    Financials

    The role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the housing bubble

    When the real estate market began turning south, Fannie Mae found itself in trouble as the value of its mortgage-backed security portfolio began to take credit losses.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///IVR
    Financials

    Invesco Mortgage Capital book value per share declines 12%

    Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) is a mortgage REIT that focuses on agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities Invesco invests in a wide range of products, from agency residential mortgage-backed securities, to non-agency mortgage-backed paper, to commercial mortgage-backed securities and residential and commercial mortgage loans. Invesco Mortgage Capital is externally managed by Invesco (IVZ). Its portfolio is […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Unemployment Forecast
    Financials

    The Fed’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony and its implications for REITs (Part 3)

    Back to Part 2 The Fed’s comments on monetary policy The Fed received a number of complaints regarding the move in interest rates over the past couple of months. Many members of Congress were alarmed at the increase in rates, and many worried that it would dampen the recovery. Bernanke referred to the June comments […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
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