More From Richard Turnill
Why Are We So Cautious on Global Equities?
Investors have become wary of global equities (EFA). That’s on a backdrop of continued uncertainty surrounding global economic growth and weak corporate earnings.
The Implications of the Brexit: What You Should Know
We believe the UK’s departure from the EU will be a long and complicated process as officials sort through UK and EU laws.
What Are the Rate Hike Implications for Emerging Markets?
An interest rate hike in the United States (IVV) is likely to pose a huge challenge to emerging markets.
Strong Consumer Spending Is Supporting Eurozone Growth
Consumer spending is supporting strong economic growth in the Eurozone (IEV) (VGK).
Why Emerging Market Debt Still Looks Attractive
Investors have tended to pull money from U.S. equity funds in the month before election day in the past four presidential elections, EPFR Global data show.
Risk-Reward Ratio Is in Favor of Emerging Market Debt
Emerging market debt (EMB) has attracted investor’s attention as a higher-yielding alternative in a world where yields are quickly falling below zero.
Can Global Markets Continue to Surge?
Since the start of the year, global markets have recovered well. The S&P 500 has risen 15.5%, emerging markets have risen 17.2%, and developed markets have risen 13.2%.
Assessing Sovereign Bonds amid Heightened Global Uncertainty
Global uncertainty, Brexit, and the prospect of further easing from central banks in developed markets have spurred demand for government debt.
Why Does Fixed Income Look Promising?
Under the current uncertain economic circumstances, investors searching for higher yield might turn to fixed income.
Why Emerging Markets Are Rebounding
Emerging markets (IEMG) (AAXJ) are expected to grow at a healthy pace of 4% in 2016 and see even higher growth in 2017.
A Look at Popular Post-Brexit Investments
The uncertain global environment created after the Brexit vote made investors hope for a perpetual low rate environment. The prospect of further easing from central banks in the developed markets has spurred strong demand for government debt.
Why Safe Haven Assets Could Gather Strength
We could see this nudging up Treasury yields and supporting the U.S. dollar. Gold may be a better hedge in the short run.
Will the Fed Allow the Economy to Run Hot?
Against this background, the Fed is likely to increase rates gradually while allowing the economy to strengthen further.
Why US Municipal Debt Looks Attractive
U.S. municipal debt looks attractive against other bond sectors, and we see potential for inflows after munis’ recent strong performance.
How to Beat Inflation?
We see inflation-linked bonds such as US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a valuable hedge against inflation. We also like inflation-linked debt in the Eurozone and Japan as a potential substitute for nominal bonds. Market Realist: inflation-linked bonds could turn out to be a better choice Inflation-linked bonds (TIP) provide a hedge against inflation by […]
Which Assets Find Support in a Reflationary Environment?
The focus can now shift to the assets that are more cyclical, like financials (XLF) (IYF), utilities (XLU) (IGF), and dividend growers.
Which US Sectors Look Appealing in the Reflationary Environment?
To stop the economy from going into deflation, reflationary measures are sometimes necessary.
Where to Spot the Right Investment Opportunities
On top of the world So which sovereign bonds do we prefer from an investment point of view? We like US Treasuries as a hedge against “risk-off” episodes, though yields are historically low and our overall view on the asset class is neutral. We also hold a neutral view of European sovereigns but prefer selected […]
Why the UK Still Looks Attractive—Despite Brexit
The United Kingdom’s overall ranking held steady at 18th place, despite the country’s vote to leave the European Union (EU), and UK debt still appears relatively safe from a big picture perspective. The country did, however, suffer a hefty decline in its Willingness to Pay score, given uncertainties over the Brexit process, and its Fiscal […]
Why Has China’s Risk Ranking Fallen?
Movers and shakers…and losers The biggest movers in our latest quarterly update? China posted the biggest rankings decline, with a three-notch fall to the 32nd place. This was mostly a result of shuffles of its close neighbors in the index. China’s Financial Sector Health score slumped against a backdrop of rapid credit growth. Norway was […]
What Does the GPS for G7 Countries Suggest?
The G7 countries’ GPS is in line with modest growth—below 2% over the next year with slight upside expected by the consensus in the next three months.
BlackRock’s Macro GPS Pulls on a Broader Set of Information
Market participants struggle to reassess the macro outlook based on incoming data. The BlackRock Macro GPS tool exploits more sources of information.
Will BlackRock’s GPS Tool Give a Better GDP Outlook?
Traditionally, a country’s GDP provides a measure of the monetary value of the goods and services it produces in a specific year.
Small Portfolio Tweaks Can Help Reduce Climate-Change Risks
Research shows that companies that have reduced their carbon footprints have outperformed their peers.
What Looks Like a Game-Changer in Climate-Aware Investing?
Green bonds sound like an evolving solution to benefit from the climate change effect. Green bonds are an option to use debt capital markets to fund climate-related projects.
Why Some Popular Positions Become Risky
According to Factset data, around 93% of companies in the utilities (JXI) sector and 80% in the telecom (IXP) sector reported revenues below estimates in the second quarter of 2016.
Why Caution Holds the Key
The UK has taken over other countries as the most sought-after bond market destination, especially after the Brexit vote.
Why Investors Are Upbeat about Emerging Markets
The sharp rise in global liquidity conditions has been channeled mainly into emerging market (EEM) economies.
Why Does Emerging Market Debt Still Look Attractive?
Emerging market debt (EMB) offers plenty of opportunities to investors. Markets are expected to continue their outperformance for the next few quarters.
Do Dividend Growers Look Appealing?
Historically, dividend growers have often performed better than the S&P 500 (IVV) and provided higher income during Market volatility.
What Are the Threats for Emerging Markets?
The major threat to emerging markets is tightening in the US. While the Fed will likely leave rates unchanged in September, a hike is possible in December.
Fading Risks Are Working in Favor of Emerging Markets
Low commodity (GSG) prices in the first quarter of the year impacted commodity-driven emerging markets like Russia, Brazil (EWZ), Indonesia, and Venezuela.
Why US Markets Are Better Off Than Many Others
The US Markets is better off than many others. US equities (IWF) look like they’re in a great shape.
Second Half Could See Higher Revenue Visibility
In the second quarter, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post a 0.3% decline in revenue. In the second half of the year, sales growth is expected to improve gradually.
Why US Profit Recession Is Expected to End in the Second Half
The US profit recession is expected to end in the third quarter. According to S&P, profits of companies in the S&P 500 are expected to grow 2% in the third quarter.
Where Should Investors Turn in the Wake of Brexit Results?
As concerns about weak economic growth are further aggravated in the aftermath of Brexit, European (EZU) stocks are likely to see downward trends for the rest of the year.
Changing Political Landscape in EU Has Heightened Global Uncertainty
The UK’s decision to exit the European Union (EZU) has set the stage for prolonged political uncertainty in the region.
Brexit Impact: UK Decides to Leave European Union
The UK’s momentous decision to leave the European Union has both short- and long-term implications for investors around the world.
How Rising Real Yields Could Affect Equities
Since the start of 2015, the S&P 500 and real yields have had a high negative correlation. Falling real yields have encouraged investors to take more risk in search of higher returns.
Why Structural Reforms Are Needed to Spur the Japanese Economy
Market participants believe that the BoJ (Bank of Japan) needs to do more to beat deflation and propel the Japanese economy to sustainable long-term growth.
Why Monetary Policy Isn’t Enough to Boost the Japanese Economy
The BoJ is the one of the largest holders of Japanese (DFJ) government bonds and also a major player in equity markets.
How the Eurozone Managed to Record Decent Economic Growth Recently
The Eurozone (IEV) (VGK) posted decent economic growth in the first quarter of the year. The higher GDP growth in recent quarters has been driven mainly by rising consumer spending.
Why Equities Look Attractive versus Government Bonds
Equities look attractive versus government debt, recently offering dividend yields above the yield on 10-year government bonds in all major markets. What else should you consider?