Weatherford’s implied volatility
On July 7, 2017, Weatherford International’s (WFT) implied volatility (or IV) was 80.4%. Since April 28, 2017, when WFT’s 1Q17 earnings were announced, its IV has risen considerably from ~55% to ~80%. WFT makes up 2.6% of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES). XES has fallen 20% in the past year versus a 34% fall in WFT’s stock price.
WFT’s implied volatility has risen more than crude oil’s volatility since WFT’s 1Q17 financial results were announced. Compared to WFT, crude oil’s volatility has risen from 26% on April 28 to 29.5% on July 7.
Weatherford’s 7-day stock price forecast
WFT’s stock will likely close between $3.92 and $3.14 in the next seven days based on Weatherford International’s implied volatility. The stock price forecast also assumes normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%. WFT’s stock price was $3.53 on July 7, 2017.