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Assessing Off-Price Retailer Stocks in 2017

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YTD price movement

On April 25, 2017, TJX Companies (TJX) stock rose 4.9% on a YTD (year-to-date) basis. On the same date, Ross Stores (ROST) and Burlington Stores (BURL) stock fell 1.3% and 15.3%, respectively, year-to-date. Only Burlington Stores has outperformed the S&P 500 Index, which has risen 6.7% on a YTD basis.

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Movement since previous results

In 2016, the stock prices of TJX Companies, Ross Stores, and Burlington Stores rose 6.0%, 21.9%, and 97.6%, respectively. In comparison, the S&P 500 Index rose 9.5% in 2016.

TJX Companies stock has risen 3.2% since the announcement of its fiscal 4Q17[1. fiscal 4Q17 ended January 28, 2017] results in February 2017. The company exceeded analysts’ sales and earnings estimates for the fourth quarter.

Ross Stores stock has declined 3.1% since the announcement of its fiscal 4Q16[2. fiscal 4Q16 ended January 28, 2017] results. The company had exceeded analysts’ sales and earnings estimates for 4Q16 but offered a lower-than-expected outlook.

Burlington Stores stock has risen 3.3% since its 4Q16[3. fiscal 4Q16 ended January 28, 2017] results were declared in March 2017. The relatively small off-price retailer impressed investors yet again with higher sales and earnings growth rates.

In Part 6 of this series, we’ll discuss analysts’ recommendations for these off-price retailers and their 12-month price targets. TJX Companies, Ross Stores, and Burlington Stores together constitute 3.2% of the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT).

We’ll discuss the dividends and share repurchases of these off-price retailers in the next part of this series.

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