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Can ConocoPhillips’ Stock Price Keep Rising after Its Earnings?

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May. 10 2016, Updated 1:05 a.m. ET

ConocoPhillips’ stock price action 

ConocoPhillips (COP) announced its 1Q16 earnings on April 28, 2016, before the Market opened. After its 1Q16 earnings were announced, its stock price fell by 0.91% and closed at $47.67. In intra-day action, ConocoPhillips’ stock price was trading higher by ~3%. However, it saw a strong reversal mid-day and closed the day negative.

It must be noted that in last three months leading into the earnings, ConocoPhillips’ stock price already rose by ~50%—mainly due to the ~68% bounce in crude oil (USO) (SCO) (DWTI) prices during the same period.

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ConocoPhillips’ stock price trend change

Falling crude oil (UCO) and natural gas (UGAZ) prices over the last two years led to a falling trend in the entire upstream sector. ConocoPhillips wasn’t an exception. As you can see in the above graph, ConocoPhillips’ stock has been in a new uptrend since January 2016. It’s clearly making a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

Relative performance in 2016

For 2016, ConocoPhillips is underperforming other upstream companies. For 2016, ConocoPhillips is up by ~3%. Other oil and gas producers such as Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO), EP Energy (EPE), and Gulfport Energy (GPOR) are up by ~20%, ~11%, and ~25%, respectively.

Stock price movement after past earnings beats

In the past year, there were two occasions when ConocoPhillips beat earnings expectations—2Q15 and 1Q15.

A contrary reaction was observed after its 2Q15 and 1Q15 earnings when ConocoPhillips’ stock price fell by ~7% and ~4% in five sessions and eight sessions, even after beating the consensus earnings estimates by $0.03 per share and $0.04 per share.

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