Can ConocoPhillips’ Stock Price Keep Rising after Its Earnings?

ConocoPhillips (COP) announced its 1Q16 earnings on April 28, 2016, before the Market opened. After its 1Q16 earnings were announced, its stock price fell by 0.91% and closed at $47.67. In intra-day action, ConocoPhillips’ stock price was trading higher by ~3%. However, it saw a strong reversal mid-day and closed the day negative.

It must be noted that in last three months leading into the earnings, ConocoPhillips’ stock price already rose by ~50%—mainly due to the ~68% bounce in crude oil (USO) (SCO) (DWTI) prices during the same period.

Falling crude oil (UCO) and natural gas (UGAZ) prices over the last two years led to a falling trend in the entire upstream sector. ConocoPhillips wasn’t an exception. As you can see in the above graph, ConocoPhillips’ stock has been in a new uptrend since January 2016. It’s clearly making a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

For 2016, ConocoPhillips is underperforming other upstream companies. For 2016, ConocoPhillips is up by ~3%. Other oil and gas producers such as Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO), EP Energy (EPE), and Gulfport Energy (GPOR) are up by ~20%, ~11%, and ~25%, respectively.

In the past year, there were two occasions when ConocoPhillips beat earnings expectations—2Q15 and 1Q15.

A contrary reaction was observed after its 2Q15 and 1Q15 earnings when ConocoPhillips’ stock price fell by ~7% and ~4% in five sessions and eight sessions, even after beating the consensus earnings estimates by $0.03 per share and $0.04 per share.