Tax Refund Checks Got Bigger in 2026, but There’s a Catch
Tax refund checks appear to be higher on average in 2026 than they were in 2025, but they are also lower than some projections.
March 31 2026, Published 2:07 p.m. ET
Because the tax deadline isn't until April 15, we won't have a full picture of how much tax refunds are on average until after the filing deadline has passed.
On the whole, though, many Americans have definitely noticed an increase in the amount of their refund, which has led some to wonder whether that's true across the board.
The IRS has already released some initial data on refunds for 2026. Here's what we know about whether they're higher than in the past.
Are tax refund checks higher in 2026?
The IRS released data on March 6 for the first batch of tax filers, and in that trove of information, the IRS said that the average refund had increased substantially. The average refund as of March 6 was $3,676, up from $3,324 at this point last year, an increase of 10.6%.
The reason for the increase is largely the One Beautiful Bill Act, which included a higher standard deduction, larger child tax credits, and new deductions tied to overtime and tip income.
The law was implemented in the middle of 2025, and the IRS did not update its withholding tables to reflect the changes in the bill, which means that many employers were also withholding more money than they needed to for at least part of the year.
Although this increase is substantial, it's also less than what Congress and the White House had suggested the shift in tax refunds could be.
The Tax Foundation, for example, estimated that the average refund would increase by $748 because of the new law. While final returns for this year are not in yet, the initial average suggests that the actual increase is more in the neighborhood of $350.
Congress and the White House, meanwhile, claimed that the increase could be as much as $1,000, which seems almost impossible at this point.
It's also unclear how much of these refund increases are the result of withholding, and how much is a direct result of the One Beautiful Bill Act.
It's possible that the IRS's new withholding information will give employers a more accurate sense of how much pay they should be withholding, and Americans will see an increase in their take-home pay instead of their tax refunds moving forward.
The One Beautiful Bill Act put an end to some 2025 tax credits.
Crucially, the bill also put an end to some tax credits that could only be claimed in 2025.
Installation of solar panels on your residence or other green-friendly endeavors could be claimed for the 2025 tax year, but would not redound to any tax benefit moving forward.
The averages suggest that there was indeed an increase in tax refunds in 2026. What's less clear, though, is whether that increase offsets the costs of the bill, and of the Trump administration's other policies.
Notably, even as people get their tax refunds, they are also facing $4 gas for the first time since 2022. For some Americans, that extra refund money is going to go right into the tank.