Meritage Homes Corp

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  • uploads///Chart  New home sales
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    New Home Sales Are on the Rise

    New home sales are an important indicator for investors in the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) and the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB).

    By Peter Barnes
  • uploads///Hourly Earnings
    Real Estate

    The Fed’s end of quantitative easing affects REITs and builders

    Last week was all about the FOMC meeting for mortgage REITs. The Fed maintained the target Fed Funds rate and ended quantitative easing, as it previously said it would.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///SPF gross margins
    Real Estate

    Standard Pacific’s gross margins may be plateauing in 3Q14

    Standard Pacific’s characterization of the current market state Standard Pacific (SPF) CEO Scott Stowell characterized the housing market’s current state this way: “We have experienced and continue to manage through the largest boom/bust housing cycle in U.S history. We have made significant progress to-date. I believe the housing market is less volatile than perceptions about […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts LT
    Industrials

    Keep in mind the long-term view for homebuilders like PulteGroup

    The big question for the builders is how they’ll be able to drive revenue growth in the future when they aren’t able to rely on simply raising prices.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  unemployment forecast
    Consumer

    Why is the Fed getting more optimistic about jobs in 2014?

    Usually, at the March, June, September, and December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings, the Fed releases its economic forecast for the current year and the upcoming two years.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Building Permits
    Consumer

    Must-know: Building permits fell but the pipeline is still strong

    Permits for single-family residences fell to 610,000, with multi-family permits basically flat at 350,000. In November, single-family permits totaled 641,000 and multi-family permits totaled 352,000.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Empire State Manufacturing Survey
    Consumer

    Empire State Manufacturing Index improves, outlook remains bright

    Overall, the report shows the economy is still expanding moderately, and firms are generally optimistic about the future.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NAHB Housing Market Index
    Consumer

    Why homebuilder sentiment hits post-bubble highs, helping stocks

    Homebuilders are in a better position than the smallest construction firms in that they have easy access to credit.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR IBD TIPP
    Consumer

    Economic optimism rebounds, but it still remains depressed

    The IBD/TIPP Optimism Index increased by 3 points to 41.4 versus 38.4 in October. It’s well below its 12-month average of 45.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield LT
    Consumer

    The Fed maintains its QE policy but warns not to expect QE4EVA

    The Fed made no changes at its October meeting. Given that it chose not to taper at the September meeting and the shutdown, no one was really surprised.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ISM PMI
    Consumer

    ISM manufacturing survey shows more manufacturing expansion

    Overall increases in business activity and consumption are starting to drive more business for homebuilders.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Unemployment rate LT
    Consumer

    Week in review: Why a lousy jobs report is a bond rally catalyst

    The ten-year bond is the basic driver of REITs and also the homebuilders Long-term interest rates are priced off the benchmark long-term bond, which is the ten-year Treasury. These days, the ten-year bond reacts to economic data through the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program, also known as quantitative easing (or QE). As a general rule, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Foreclosure Completions
    Consumer

    August foreclosure completions tick up but homebuilders unaffected

    Increases in foreclosure activity correlate with lower home prices because distressed properties tend to trade at a discount to non-distressed properties.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR pending home sales
    Consumer

    Pending home sales declined in August as mortgage rates increased

    The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a proprietary index from the National Association of Realtors based on contract signings, fell 1.5%, to 107.7 in August from 109.4 in July.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR NAHB
    Consumer

    Homebuilders note momentum pause as buyers digest rate increases

    The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) Sentiment Index came in at 58—the highest reading since July 2005, and only the third time since the bust that more homebuilders considered conditions to be more “good” than “poor.”

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR consumer sentiment
    Consumer

    Consumer sentiment falls, another warning about the economy?

    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is an important indicator of the consumer’s perception of the U.S. economy. Similar to other consumer confidence measures, it asks consumers about their views on the current economic conditions and their […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Consumer Sentiment
    Consumer

    University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index dips in August

    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is an important indicator of the consumer’s perception of the U.S. economy. Similar to other consumer confidence measures, it asks consumers about their views on the current economic conditions and their […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR homebuilder ETF
    Consumer

    How to think about upcoming homebuilder earnings (Part 2)

    Back to Part 1 Revenues for the homebuilding sector have been increasing at a rapid rate So far, we’ve seen huge revenue growth from the builders that have already reported second quarter earnings. KB Home (KBH) reported a 73% year-over-year increase in revenues, while Lennar (LEN) reported a 53% jump. NVR Corp (NVR) reported a 31% […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR Michigan
    Consumer

    Consumer confidence dipped slightly in July, but opportunity for homebuilders

    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is an important indicator of the consumer’s perception of the U.S. economy. Similar to other consumer confidence measures, it asks consumers about their views on the current economic conditions and their […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///IBD TIPP Optimism Index
    Consumer

    IBD / TIPP economic optimism index falls in July, but don’t blame interest rates

    The Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Optimism Index is considered to be a preview of the upcoming consumer confidence indices The Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Optimism Index has a good track record of predicting how the two major consumer confidence indices – the Conference Board and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence indices – will look when they are released later in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ISM PMI
    Consumer

    ISM PMI shows manufacturing back in expansionary territory

    The Institute for Supply Management Index assesses the state of manufacturing in the United States. The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Manager’s Index (ISM PMI for short) is similar to the other regional PMI indices, however, it covers the entire country. The ISM PMI looks at various business indices, like new orders, production, employment, supplier […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///New Home Sales  year
    Consumer

    New home sales increase 29% from a year ago, positive for homebuilder stocks

    May new home sales, as reported by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, increased 2.1% from April New home sales increased to an annualized pace of 454,000, up 2.3% from April (which was revised upward from an initial estimate of 454,000 to 466,000) and up 29% from a year ago. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment Index
    Consumer

    Homebuilder sentiment leaps in June

    The National Association of Homebuilder Sentiment Index is a closely-watched measure of future building activity The National Association of Homebuilders Sentiment Index measures the confidence of homebuilders. It gauges builder perceptions of current and future sales of single family residences and asks them to characterize them as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.”  It also asks the […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GDP
    Consumer

    First quarter GDP revised downward to +2.4%

    Increases in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of economic growth Gross domestic product is what is referred to generally as “the economy.”  It is the sum of consumption, investment, and government spending. Another way to think of GDP is the output of goods and services produced by labor and property in the U.S. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///NY PMI
    Consumer

    New York PMI falls in May

    The Institute of Supply Management index assesses the state of manufacturing in the New York City Metropolitan Area The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) New York Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) is similar to the ISM PMI , however, it covers the New York City area. The ISM PMI looks at various business indices, like new […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Foreclosure Completions
    Consumer

    Foreclosure completions drop again in April

    Foreclosure starts are a leading indicator of future housing supply and pricing Foreclosure activity is closely watched by investors, realtors and home builders alike because they provide a forecast of future housing supply. Foreclosure timelines can vary widely by state, depending on whether a foreclosure needs to be approved by a judge. The large foreclosure […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FICO scores
    Consumer

    Is credit finally starting to ease up in the mortgage market?

    Ellie Mae is a software provider that aggregates mortgage origination activity Ellie Mae (ELLI) puts out a monthly Origination Insight Report which provides monthly data and analysis from a sample of closed loan applications that flow through their Encompass 360 Mortgage Management Software. In many ways, it is similar to the way Automatic Data Processing […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Purchase Index
    Consumer

    MBA Purchase Index falls in the week ending April 26

    The MBA Purchase Index is an important index to forecast housing activity The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of purchase activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market and home […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Lender Processing Services HPI
    Consumer

    Lender Processing Services Home Price Index increases 1% in February

    The Lender Processing Services Home Price index is the price of a “representative” home in the United States Lender Processing Services (LPS) is a major provider of data and analytics to mortgage industry professionals. As such, LPS has access to a wide variety of foreclosure data, delinquency data, prepayment data, and local real estate markets. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///tom rumble lvzopTxjOU unsplash
    Consumer

    Real Estate Price Appreciation widely dispersed by location

    The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) rose 5.1% year-over-year to $157,600. The ZHVI is a modeled index, based on the average zillow estimate of home values in each area. The Zillow index is not solely based on home sales, so it isn’t really a comparable index to Case-Schiller. It is closer to Radar Logic, which […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
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