Study reveals the number of jobs AI could replace in next 20 years — and it’s not good news
Artificial intelligence has made its presence felt in every space, be it social media, finance, education or the workplace. But the layoffs it has been triggering are the most talked about, as more than 54,000 Americans have lost their jobs in 2025 alone. As businesses using generative AI to handle administrative and regular chores continue to trim their workforce, tech experts are sounding the alarm about white-collar jobs at maximum risk of being lost to automation. According to CBS News, economists predict that in the next 20 years, 20% of American occupations could be replaced by AI-related technologies and robots.
Figures indicate that 20% of employment will be wiped out due to automation, according to Oxford Economics researchers, with 60% of positions in logistics and transportation at risk over the next 20 years. The study estimated that with the introduction of new technologies like self-driving cars and warehouse automation, the focus has shifted from research and development to commercialization, thus making these jobs most vulnerable. Based on job functions and relevant technology, the study assessed the automation susceptibility of more than 800 occupations. "These jobs are not evenly distributed across the economy; they are, in fact, concentrated in a number of sectors where they make up an extraordinarily high amount of the workforce," Oxford stated.
Senior economist Nico Palesch highlighted how humanoid robots could affect manual labor-intensive occupations like truck driving and warehouse work. He explained that industries that are susceptible to automation include manufacturing, lodging, catering, retail, wholesale, and extraction. Palesch, however, issued a warning that this does not portend an impending loss of jobs or an increase in productivity. Though progress is slow, automation has the potential to eliminate jobs in the near future.
Housekeeping robots and self-service kiosks in hotels are two examples of gradual adoption, where companies modify their hiring procedures over time. Palesch and other economists believe that although automation may eliminate certain employment, it may also open up new ones because there will always be a need for maintenance of tech. "The demand for work is not going to go away, because together with automation comes the need to maintain robots, design robots, to teach people how to use robots," Palesch said.
As automation accelerates, estimates suggest that 300 million full-time positions could be impacted. Experts anticipate that by 2030, 30% of work hours in the U.S. could be automated, affecting various sectors, including entry-level roles traditionally thought to be secure. The AI boom is characterized by rapid advancements, raising concerns about the potential for widespread job loss without sufficient adaptation time for workers. While historical automation primarily affected manual labor jobs, AI is now targeting cognitive labor, leading to the disappearance of lower white-collar roles.
Despite these challenges, there is an optimistic viewpoint that AI could improve living standards by potentially providing quality housing, healthcare, and education, allowing individuals to pursue fulfilling work. However, the transition may be disruptive, with significant short-term impacts expected before any long-term benefits are realized. In the context of the technological singularity, AI's computing power has drastically increased, indicating that substantial productivity gains are imminent, which could enhance the global economy significantly.
More on Market Realist:
New MIT study warns of troubling trend in how AI could replace millions of America jobs
Thousands of Amazon jobs could disappear as AI quietly reshapes the company
AI might take over more than one in four teen jobs in US by 2030 — should you be worried?
