Triangle Petroleum Corp
Global Crude Oil Supply Outages Could Push Oil Prices Higher
According to the EIA, global crude oil supply outages increased by 208,000 bpd or 14% to 1,738,000 bpd in December 2017—compared to November 2017.
Why Were Crude Oil Price Forecasts Downgraded Again?
A Wall Street Journal survey estimates that US crude oil prices could average $51 per barrel in 2018—$2 per barrel lower than previous estimates.
How Hurricane Harvey May Impact US Crude Oil Production
US crude oil production The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US crude oil production rose by 2,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,530,000 bpd between August 18 and 25, 2017. Production rose 1,042,000 bpd, or 12.3%, from the same period in 2016. It has risen for three consecutive weeks to August 25, and has reached […]
Why US Crude Oil Rig Counts Fell to a 2-Month Low
Baker Hughes (BHI) released its US crude oil rig count report on August 25, 2017. Baker Hughes reported that the US crude oil rig count fell by four or 0.5% to 759 between August 18 and August 25.
US Distillate Inventories Were Flat Last Week
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US distillate inventories were flat at 148.4 MMbbls (million barrels) between August 11, 2017, and August 18, 2017.
Will US Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories Support Oil Prices?
September WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (OIH) (SCO) (DIG) futures contracts rose 0.5% to $47.81 per barrel in electronic trading at 1:50 AM EST on August 16, 2017.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production: Bears Could Control Oil Prices
Libya’s crude oil production was at 1,030,000 bpd in July 2017. Production has risen ~60% from its levels in January 2017.
Will US Crude Oil Inventories Pressure Oil Prices?
September US crude oil (BNO) (IEZ) (UCO) futures contracts fell 0.3% to $46.4 per barrel in electronic trading at 2:15 AM EST on July 19, 2017.
Decoding US Crude Oil Price Forecasts and Moving Averages
August US crude oil (VDE) (IEZ) (XES) futures are trading above their 20-day moving average of $45 per barrel as of July 3, 2017.
US Crude Oil Production: Biggest Weekly Fall since July 2016
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil production fell by 100,000 bpd to 9,250,000 bpd on June 16–23, 2017.
Are OECD’s Crude Oil Inventories Helping Crude Oil Bears?
The EIA estimates that OECD’s crude oil inventories rose by 2.31 MMbbls (million barrels) or 0.1% to 3,021.5 MMbbls in May 2017—compared to April 2017.
US and Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast for the Next 6 Months
Brent crude oil futures are trading below their 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of $49.9, $51.6, $53.3, and $53.8 per barrel.
Oasis Petroleum’s Acreage Position in the Williston Basin
According to its investor presentation released on May 17, 2017, Oasis Petroleum (OAS) holds a premier acreage position in the Williston Basin. This series will look at what we can expect from Oasis this year.
US Gasoline Inventories: More Concerns for Crude Oil Prices
US gasoline inventories are 7.2% below their all-time high. The expectation of a fall in gasoline inventories could support gasoline prices.
Analyzing Cushing Crude Oil Inventories and US Crude Oil Futures
A fall in Cushing inventories could benefit US crude oil (BNO) (SCO) (UCO) prices. Crude oil prices have risen 2.8% in the last four weeks.
OPEC’s Spare Production Capacity Fell: Will It Impact Oil Prices?
The EIA estimated that OPEC’s spare crude oil production capacity fell by 36,277 bpd to 2.32 MMbpd in April 2017—compared to March 2017.
Goldman Sachs: OPEC and Russia Could Pressure Oil Prices
Goldman Sachs (GS) thinks that a rise in production from OPEC, Russia, and the US in 2H18 could lead to renewed oversupply by the end of 2018.
US Crude Oil Production Fell for the First Time since February
US crude oil production fell by 9,000 bpd to 9,305,000 bpd on May 5–12, 2017. Production fell 0.1% week-over-week, but rose 5.8% year-over-year.
Is US Gasoline Demand Bullish for Oil Traders?
The EIA estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand rose by 33,000 bpd to 9,248,000 bpd between April 28, 2017, and May 5, 2017.
Can OPEC and Russia Rescue the Oil Market?
The EIA estimates that OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 90,000 bpd to 31.71 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in April 2017—compared to March 2017.
Fall in US Refinery Demand and Imports Impacted Inventories
US refineries operated at 91.5% of their operable capacity in the week ending May 5, 2017. The US refinery demand fell for the second consecutive week.
Is US Gasoline Demand Turning Bearish?
The EIA estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 22,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,215,000 bpd on April 21–28, 2017.
Why Investors Are Tracking US Gasoline Demand
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimated that four-week average US gasoline demand fell by 80,000 bpd to 9,237,000 bpd on April 14–21.
Could US Crude Oil Production Push Production Cut Deal Past 2017?
The EIA reported that monthly US crude oil production rose 196,000 bpd to 9.0 MMbpd in February 2017.
US Dollar Is near a 5-Month Low: Can It Support Crude Oil Bulls?
The US Dollar Index fell 1% to 98.9 for the week ending April 28, 2017. The dollar hit a high of 103.8 on January 3, 2017—the highest level in 14 years.
Will Crude Oil Prices Break below the 100-Day Moving Average?
So far, crude oil prices and broader markets such as the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX-INDEX) are diverging in 2017. SPY has risen 4% YTD (year-to-date).
Record US Crude Oil Inventories versus the US Dollar
For the week ending March 17, 2017, the EIA reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 5 MMbbls to 533.1 MMbbls—the highest level ever.
High Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: More Pain for Oil Prices
Market surveys estimate that Cushing crude oil inventories rose from March 17–24. A rise in oil inventories at Cushing could pressure US crude oil prices.
Hedge Funds Reduced Their Bullish Bets on Crude Oil
On March 17, the CFTC released its weekly Commitments of Traders report. Hedge funds decreased their net long positions in US WTI crude oil contracts.
Gasoline Futures and Crude Oil Prices Diverged
April gasoline futures fell 1.3% to $1.58 per gallon on March 15, 2017. Prices fell despite the fall in US gasoline inventories.
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: More Pain for Oil Prices?
Market surveys estimate that Cushing crude oil inventories rose from March 3–10. A rise in crude oil inventories could pressure US crude oil prices.
Will the EIA’s Crude Oil Inventories Follow the API’s Data?
On March 7, the API released its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories rose by 11.6 MMbbls between February 24 and March 3.
Why US Crude Oil Prices Hit Highest Level since July 2015
April WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (BNO) (IXC) (IYE) futures contracts rose 1.6% and settled at $54.45 per barrel on February 23, 2017.
US Crude Oil Inventories Could Reach Record Levels
On February 22, the API will release its weekly crude oil inventory report. US crude oil inventories could have risen from February 10–17, 2017.
EIA’s Crude Oil Inventories Could Break an All-Time High
The API’s report will be followed by the EIA’s weekly crude oil inventory report on February 15, 2017. The data will be for the week ending February 10.
EIA Reported a Surprise Draw in US Gasoline Inventories
The EIA reported that US gasoline inventories fell by 0.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 256.2 MMbbls between January 27, 2017, and February 3, 2017.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production Reached a 3-Year High
Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported that the country’s crude oil production rose by 300,000 bpd between September 2016 and January 2017.
Decoding US Crude Oil Prices in the Last 12 Months
As of January 27, 2017, crude oil prices rose 103% from their 2016 lows. Higher crude oil prices have a positive impact on producers’ earnings.
Crude Oil Prices: Tussle between Bulls and Bears
March WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (PXI) (BNO) (USL) (IYE) futures contracts fell 0.8% and settled at $52.75 per barrel on January 25, 2017.
Will API Crude Oil Inventories Boost Crude Oil Prices?
For the week ending January 6, 2017, the EIA reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 483.1 MMbbls.
Analyzing Crude Oil Prices in 2016 and 2017
Crude oil prices were $54.1 per barrel on December 28—the highest since July 14, 2015. As of January 16, 2017, crude oil prices are 3.4% below their highs.
Oil Prices, World Oil Consumption, and Global Economic Growth
Steady world oil consumption would support oil prices in 2017. The change in world consumption is expected to average 1.6% in 2017.
An Introduction to Whiting Petroleum
Whiting Petroleum (WLL) holds 443,125 net acres in the Williston Basin, where the Bakken and Three Forks plays are located. At the end of 2015, WLL had ~6,050 gross drilling locations in the Williston Basin.
Gasoline Inventories Pressure Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices
For the week ending December 9, 2016, US gasoline inventories were 5% higher than they were in the same period in 2015.
Federal Reserve and OPEC Pressure Crude Oil Prices
On December 14, the Federal Reserve reported that it would raise the interest rate by 25 basis points. As a result, the US Dollar Index appreciated by 0.7%.
What’s Continental Resources Focusing on in 2016?
Continental Resources (CLR) is the largest leaseholder and one of the largest producers in the Bakken Shale, one of the premier oil plays in the United States. In this series, we’ll focus on its performance, fundamentals, and strategies in 2016.
Crude Oil Prices Skyrocket before OPEC’s Meeting
Crude oil prices rose on November 15, 2016. However, expectations of a bearish crude oil inventory report could pressure crude oil prices.
Decoding the Energy Subsectors after the US Election Results
Oil and gas exploration and production companies’ performances have been poor over the trailing-five-day and trailing-one-month periods due to lower crude oil prices.
US Stock Market Performance: Republican versus Democrat
The US stock market is volatile because the election is right around the corner. The US presidential election will take place on November 8, 2016.
US Dollar near 9-Month High: Is It Bearish for Crude Oil Prices?
December WTI crude oil futures contracts rose on October 21, 2016, due to expectations of OPEC and Russia reaching an agreement to cap production.
US Dollar near 7-Month High: Will It Pressure Crude Oil Prices?
November West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contracts fell 0.8% and settled at $49.94 per barrel on October 17, 2016.
Why US Crude Oil Inventories Are Near October 2015 Levels
US crude oil (UWTI) (IXC) (ERY) (BNO) (RYE) inventories rose by 4.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 474 MMbbls between September 30 and October 7.
What Should Energy Traders Look for This Week?
The events in the energy sector influence crude oil and natural gas prices. The ups and downs in crude oil prices impact oil and gas producers’ earnings.
Will EIA Data Follow API’s Crude Oil Inventory Data?
November WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts were up 2.1% to $45 per barrel in electronic trade at 6:42 AM EST on September 21, 2016.
Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production Fell for 2nd Consecutive Month
A Bloomberg survey indicated that Nigeria’s crude oil production fell by 130,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 1.4 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in August 2016 compared to the previous month.
The Impact of US Job Data on Crude Oil
The Market’s expectation of a rate hike following improved economic data could boost the US Dollar Index (UUP), which could negatively affect crude oil prices.
Unexpected Build in US Crude Oil Inventories Weighs on Crude Prices
WTI crude oil futures contracts for September delivery fell by ~2.4% and settled at $41.91 per barrel on July 27, 2016. In this series, we’ll look at US crude oil production and imports, refinery demand, and US gasoline and distillate prices and inventories.
Gasoline Demand: Important for Crude Oil Bulls
The EIA reported that US gasoline demand rose by 114,000 bpd to 9.8 MMbpd from July 8–15, 2016.
Why Is XOP Underperforming Other Energy ETFs?
The fall in energy ETFs started after the fall in oil prices on July 5, 2016, and when Brexit concerns and supply-related fears resurfaced.
Russia’s Crude Oil Production Will Pressure the Crude Oil Market
Russia’s crude oil production rose to 10.84 MMbpd in June 2016—compared to the previous month—according to sources from the Russian Energy Ministry.
How China, India, and South Korea Are Driving Crude Oil Demand
In this part of the series, we’ll look at why Asian economies like China and India are important for crude oil prices over the long term.
How Are Key Macroeconomic Indicators Affecting Oil?
The US (SPY) (VOO) consumer sentiment index was 93.5 for June’s final reading, according to the University of Michigan survey released on June 24, 2016.
Could Cushing Crude Oil Inventories Curb the Drop in Oil Prices?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that Cushing crude oil inventories fell by 1.3 MMbbls to 65.2 MMbbls for the week ending June 17 compared to the previous week.
Can the Fall in the Dollar Boost Crude Oil?
From June 14–21, 2016, crude oil rose 0.7%, while the US Dollar Index (UUP) fell about 0.96%. The index initially fell after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged on June 15.
What Drove the Crude Oil Demand in Asia?
India’s Petroleum, Planning, and Analysis Cell reported that India’s crude oil demand rose by 0.4 MMbpd in April. It’s 10% higher than the same period in 2015.
Upstream Stocks with High and Low Implied Volatility
As of June 17, 2016, Triangle Petroleum (TPLM) had the highest implied volatility among upstream stocks at 225.5. Its 15-day average implied volatility was 232.5.
A Look at the Implied Volatilities of Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Crude oil’s (USO) (OIIL) implied volatility was 39.71 on June 17, 2016. Its 15-day average implied volatility is 36.16.
How the Fed’s Interest Rate Decision Impacted Crude Oil
On June 15, 2016 the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
AMLP Fell: Did It Outperform Other Energy ETFs?
The Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) outperformed other energy ETFs from June 9–16, 2016. Falling crude oil has less of an impact on midstream companies.
Will the Dollar’s Recovery Affect Crude Oil?
Between June 7 and June 14, 2016, crude oil (USO) fell by ~3.7% while the US dollar index (UUP) rose by around 1.2%.
Key Macro Economic Indicators: How Do They Impact Oil?
Improved consumer sentiment could impact the timing of the next rate hike. It could impact US Dollar Index (UUP) and crude oil prices.
Will Movements in the Dollar Index Help the Crude Oil Rally?
Between May 31 and June 7, crude oil (USO) rose about 2.5% while the US dollar index (UUP) fell around 2.2%.
Why Did Iran’s Crude Oil Production Rise in May 2016?
A Reuters survey reported that Iran’s crude oil production rose by 15,000 barrels per day to 3.55 MMbpd in May 2016—compared to April 2016.
A Look at Key Economic Indicators and Crude Oil
The Market’s expectation of a delay in a rate hike could weaken the US Dollar Index (UUP), which could support crude oil prices.
US On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices Hit 2016 Highs
The EIA reported that US on-highway diesel fuel prices rose by 1.3% week-over-week and closed at $2.38 per gallon on May 30, 2016.
What’s the Correlation between Crude Oil and the US Dollar Index?
Between May 24 and May 31, crude oil gained about 0.98% despite the fact that the US Dollar Index also rallied around 0.33%.
Iran: Boon or Bane for the Crude Oil Market in 2016?
Iran exported ~2 MMbpd of crude oil in April 2016. Iran’s crude oil production rose to 3.38 MMbpd in May 2016—compared to 3.35 MMbpd in April 2016.
Are Oil-Weighted Stocks Underperforming Crude Oil?
Oil-weighted stocks have underperformed crude oil in the last six trading sessions.
What Do Key Economic Indicators Suggest for Crude Oil?
The one-month correlation of crude oil prices with the US Dollar Index was -9.2% on May 27. It shows the US dollar’s inverse impact on crude oil prices.
Analyzing Implied Volatility for Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Crude oil’s (USO) implied volatility was 33.31 on May 27, 2016. The 15-day average is at 39.16. The current implied volatility is 15% below its 15-day average.
The Oil Rally: Is It a Leading Indicator for a Stronger Dollar?
Market expectations of a rate hike could strengthen the US Dollar Index if the crude oil rally continues. Rising crude oil can also reflect improving consumer sentiment.
Continental Resources: An Introduction
In this series, we will analyze how badly Continental Resources (CLR) was hit by weak oil prices, and what measures it has taken to counter this situation. In 2015, crude oil accounted for 66% of CLR’s total production and 85% of its revenues.
How Did the Consumer Price Index Affect Crude Oil Prices?
The US (SPY) (VOO) CPI (consumer price index) rose 0.4% on a month-over-month basis in April, according to a US Department of Labor report on May 17, 2016.
How Will China and India Impact the Crude Oil Market in 2016?
China’s crude oil production fell to the lowest level in four years. It fell by 5.6% YoY (year-over-year) to 16.6 metric tons in April 2016.
Can Rising Oil Push the Dollar Up?
In the last six trading sessions, US crude oil (USO) gained about 8.2%. However, the US Dollar Index (UUP) only rose 0.27%.
Oil Sees a 2016 High, XOP Outperforms Other Energy ETFs
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) outperformed other energy sector ETFs between May 5 and May 12, 2016.
What’s the Correlation between Crude Oil and the Dollar Index?
Between September 2007 and April 2013, the crude oil (USO) and dollar index (UUP) one-month correlation was positive in only a few instances.
What Are Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Crude Oil?
The last one-month correlation of crude oil with the US Dollar Index spot stood at 2.4% on May 6, 2016. This is a low correlation.
Energy Sector ETFs: Who Leads and Who Lags?
The Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) outperformed other energy sector ETFs on a weekly basis as of May 5, 2016. The other ETFs include XLE, XOP, and OIH.
Will Gasoline and Distillate Inventories Support Crude Oil Prices?
On May 2, the API (American Petroleum Institute) released its weekly crude oil inventory report.
Why South Korea and India Are Bullish Forces for Crude Oil
In this part of the series, we’ll look at some more bullish drivers for crude oil prices over the long term.
Why Morgan Stanley Expects Crude Oil Prices to Trend even Lower
As of the end of April, crude oil prices had rallied by almost 70% since the lows of February 2016. But prices were still ~60% lower than in June 2014.
What’s Next for the Crude Oil Mark in Iran?
Iran is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC. Bloomberg projects that its crude oil production rose by 300,000 bpd to 3.5 MMbpd in April 2016 over March.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Crude Oil
In February 2016, crude oil touched a 12-year low, and the S&P500 hit a one-year low. Crude oil and the S&P 500 index seem to have already discounted the slower growth rate.
Slower Non-OPEC Production and Other Bullish Forces for Crude Oil
The IEA (International Energy Agency) estimates that crude oil production from non-OPEC producers could see the biggest decline in 25 years.
What’s the Critical Support and Resistance for Crude Oil?
On April 22, US crude oil closed at $43.73—1.2% higher than the previous trading session on a closing basis. The rise in inventories was less than expected.
Why Did the Doha Oil Producer Meeting Fail?
On April 17, 2016, major oil producers failed to reach an agreement to freeze crude oil production.
Crude Oil Inventories Rose: Will It Matter Now?
The API (American Petroleum Institute) reported that crude inventories rose by 6.2 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending April 8, 2016.
Gasoline Prices: Roller Coaster Ride Continues in 2016
May gasoline futures trading in NYMEX rose by 0.7% and settled at $1.39 per gallon on April 6. Gasoline prices rallied almost 30% from the lows in February.
Key Bearish Factors for Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices have rallied more than 40% since the lows reached in February 2016. Traders could square off their long positions as part of profit-booking.