Kosmos Energy Ltd
Kosmos Energy: Why Analysts Are Bullish on This Non-Permian Stock
Kosmos Energy (KOS) is in sixth place in terms of analysts’ ratings among upstream companies.
Analysts Still Bullish on Permian-Based Upstream Stocks
In this series, we’ll look at the top seven upstream companies that Wall Street analysts like the most.
Last Week’s Strongest Exploration and Production Stocks
Black Stone Minerals (BSM), a mineral interest owner structured as an MLP, was the strongest E&P (exploration and production) stock last week, rising 11.1%.
Analyzing Wall Street’s Targets for GPOR, KOS, IO, and BAS
To conclude our series on the biggest movers in the upstream and oilfield service sectors, we’ll now look at Wall Street’s recommendations for this week’s strongest and weakest stocks.
Weakest Upstream Stocks This Week: KOS, OAS, MRO, WLL, and MUR
This week, Kosmos Energy (KOS) has fallen ~6.9% from $8.45 to $7.87. On June 26, KOS closed the day with a loss of ~2.6%.
Analyzing Institutional Investor Activity in These Upstream Stocks
In 4Q17, 99 funds bought Kosmos Energy (KOS) stock, and 52 funds sold the stock.
Upstream Energy’s Top 7 Free Cash Flow Stocks in 2017
Free cash flow (or FCF) is an important metric for the crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) production sector.
US Crude Oil above $65: Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Are Gaining?
Between January 17 and January 24, 2018, oil-weighted stocks rose 2.4%. Over this period, US crude oil March futures rose 2.6%.
Crude Oil Futures Continued to Rally, Wall Street Fell
February WTI crude oil futures contracts also rose 1% to $63.57 per barrel on January 10, 2018. It’s the highest settlement since December 2014.
Are Oil-Weighted Stocks Underperforming Oil?
On December 6–13, 2017, our list of oil-weighted stocks fell 1.6%, while US crude oil prices rose 1.1%. US crude oil outperformed these oil-weighted stocks.
Analyzing Wall Street Targets for the Best-Performing Upstream Stocks
Currently, ~69.0% of Wall Street analysts tracking Kosmos Energy (KOS) rate it as a “strong buy” or “buy.”
The Fourth-Best-Performing Upstream Stock Year-to-Date
In 9M17, KOS’s production increased ~107.0% to ~7.8 million barrels when compared with 9M16.
Will W&T Offshore’s Stock Rally Resume?
So far in 2H17, W&T Offshore (WTI) stock price rose from $1.96 at the end of June 2017 to $3.15 as of November 16 – a very strong rise of ~61%.
Kosmos Energy’s Losses Rose by More Than 193% in 1Q17
Kosmos Energy (KOS) announced its 1Q17 earnings before the market opened on May 8, 2017. KOS reported a worse-than-expected loss of ~$43 million in 1Q17.
Upstream Losers: JONE, TELL, KOS, LPI, and ERF
In the week starting October 2, 2017, Jones Energy (JONE) has fallen ~9.0%, from $1.92 to $1.74. It has fallen every day so far this week.
Why W&T Offshore Stock Is Outperforming the Upstream Sector
So far in September 2017, W&T Offshore (WTI) stock has risen from $1.91 at the end of August to $2.57 as of September 19, 2017, a ~35.0% rise.
Will Saudi Arabia’s Production and Exports Support Crude Oil Futures?
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production rose by 50,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 10.20 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in July 2017 compared to the previous month.
Analyzing Short Interest in Devon Energy Stock
As of June 30, 2017, Devon Energy’s (DVN) total shares shorted (or short interest) stood at ~10.4 million, whereas its average daily volume was ~5.9 million.
Cobalt International Energy: Analyzing Wall Street Ratings
As of May 26, 2017, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) has one “strong buy,” two “buy,” four “hold,” and one “strong sell” recommendation.
Cobalt International Energy Stock: Analyzing Short Interest
As of May 15, 2017, the short interest ratio in Cobalt International Energy’s (CIE) stock is ~9.1x.
Short Interest in Kosmos Energy Stock Is on the Rise
On May 15, 2017, Kosmos Energy’s (KOS) total shares shorted (or short interest) stood at ~32.4 million, and its average daily volume was ~14.3 million.
What Factors Impacted Kosmos’s 1Q17 Crude Oil Sales Volumes?
In 1Q17, Kosmos Energy (KOS) reported total crude oil (USO) sales volumes of 2.0 MMBbls (million barrels), ~4% higher compared to its 1Q16 crude oil sales volumes of 1.9 MMBbls.
Kosmos Has Outperformed Oil and Its Peers since Its 1Q17 Results
Kosmos Energy released its 1Q17 earnings before the market opened on May 8, 2017. Since its earnings release, KOS stock has been on a strong upward trend, rising from $5.95 to $6.65.
US Natural Gas Consumption Fell: Is It Bearish for Prices?
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption fell 10% from March 16–22, 2017. Consumption fell 5.5% from the same period in 2016.
Will Trump Impact US Natural Gas Consumption?
US natural gas consumption rose 13.5% between January 25, 2017, and February 1, 2017. The rise in consumption is bullish for natural gas prices.
Oil’s Flip-Flop: Which Oil-Weighted Stocks to Track?
Oil prices fell because of growing concerns about rising US crude oil production. The US oil rig count rose by 15 to 566 for the week ending on January 27.
How Does US Natural Gas Consumption Impact Prices?
The EIA estimates that US natural gas consumption could average 75.4 Bcf per day in 2017 and 76.9 Bcf per day in 2018.
US Natural Gas Consumption: Bullish or Bearish for Prices?
The EIA estimated that monthly US natural gas consumption rose by 19 Bcf per day to 91 Bcf per day in December 2016—compared to the previous month.
Have Energy Stocks Outperformed Crude Oil in 2016?
On February 11, US crude oil touched a 12-year low. From February 11 to December 12, the active futures contracts rose 101.6% on a closing price basis.
Are Oil-Weighted Stocks Outperforming Crude Oil after OPEC Deal?
From November 28 to December 5, 2016, an equally weighted basket of oil stocks rose 15.8% compared to a 10.0% rise in WTI crude oil futures contracts for January.
Have Oil-Weighted Stocks Outperformed Crude Oil?
On February 11, US crude oil touched a 12-year low. From February 11–November 21, US crude oil active futures contracts rose 65.3% on a closing price basis.
Will Energy Stocks Outperform Crude Oil?
In last five days, energy stocks outperformed crude oil. The rise in energy stocks against a 3.5% fall in oil prices coincides with Trump’s energy policy.
Crude Oil’s Bumpy Ride: How Are Oil-Weighted Stocks Performing?
Crude oil–weighted stocks outperformed crude oil in the last five trading sessions, but underperformed it since oil’s 2016 low in February.
US Natural Gas Consumption Rose for the 7th Time in 8 Weeks
Market intelligence company PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose by 4.4% between July 21–July 27, 2016. Gas consumption rose for the seventh time in the last eight weeks.
US Natural Gas Consumption Rose for the Sixth Time in 7 Weeks
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose by 2% from July 14–20. Natural gas consumption rose for the sixth time in the last seven weeks.
Which Energy ETF Tracks Crude Oil Closer?
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) had the highest correlation of 84.4% with US crude oil between June 21 and July 21, 2016.
US Natural Gas Consumption Rose in the Week Ended July 13
Market intelligence company PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose by 4.4% for the week ended July 13, 2016. compared with the previous week.
Why US Natural Gas Consumption Fell for the First Time in 5 Weeks
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption fell by 3.7% between June 30, 2016, and July 6, 2016. This was the first fall in the last five weeks.
Oil Inventories: What Do They Indicate for Oil Prices?
The relationship between crude oil inventories and crude oil prices is inverse. Crude oil prices bottomed out in early 2016. Inventories topped out as well.
Weekly US Natural Gas Consumption Is Higher for the Second Week
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose marginally for the second straight week for the week ending June 15—compared to the previous week.
Why the Weekly Natural Gas Consumption Rose Marginally
PointLogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose marginally by 0.2% for the week ending June 1, 2016—compared to the previous week.
Why Is May the Magic Month for Crude Oil Inventories?
In 2012 and 2014, crude oil inventories fell in May. The five-year average from 2011 to 2015 also indicates that crude oil inventories typically fall in May.
Does Seasonality Impact the Crude Oil Inventory?
US commercial crude oil (USO) (UWTI) inventories fell by 3.4 MMbbls (million barrels) compared to the previous week for the week ending May 6, 2016.
Crude Oil or Natural Gas: Which Drives Top Energy ETFs?
Among the top energy ETFs that track oil and gas–related companies, XOP had the highest correlation of 64.4% with US crude oil.
What’s the Correlation between Crude Oil Inventories and Prices?
US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels compared to the previous week.
Oil-Weighted Stocks after Crude Oil’s 2016 High and Low
On February 11, 2016, US crude oil (USL) touched a 12-year low. Between February 11, 2016, and May 9, 2016, US crude oil gained 65.7%.
Why Is the US Dollar Index Limited in Driving Crude Oil Prices?
From February 26, 2016, to April 22, 2016, the US Dollar Index has fallen around 3%. The last 30-day correlation with crude oil stood at -24% on April 22.
How Are Crude Oil Prices and the S&P 500 Correlated?
Historically, crude oil prices and the S&P 500 index have influenced each other.
What’s the Long-Term Forecast for US Natural Gas Consumption?
The EIA forecast that US natural gas consumption could average 76.2 Bcf per day in 2016. It could rise more to 77.4 Bcf per day in 2017.
How Saudi Arabia and Iran Are Adding to Energy Investors’ Woes
At the Doha conference on April 17, 2016, Saudi Arabia reaffirmed that it won’t commit to a production freeze without Iran.
Doha Meeting: Key Takeaway for Energy Investors
The scheduled Doha meeting for OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers was on April 17. It didn’t achieve a common census among the participating countries.
How Volatile Have Crude Oil Price Movements Been?
Generally, WTI volatility has been rising since June 20, 2014. US crude oil (USO) made a high of $107.26 on a closing basis before it started to decline.
What Macroeconomic Indicators Are Suggesting for Crude Oil
In the last five years, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices have a correlation 63.7% with the ten-year and two-year constant maturity T-notes spread.
Why Is Saudi Arabia Making Crude Oil Volatile?
After Mohammad Bin Salman Al-Saud’s interview on April 1, investors turned bearish on crude oil. During the last two trading sessions, US crude oil lost about 6.8%.
No Iran, No Saudi Arabia in the Production Freeze: What It Means
Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince indicated that a production freeze will only be possible if Iran participates in limiting its production to January 2016 levels.
US Natural Gas Consumption Could Rise over the Long Term
In its March STEO report, the EIA forecast that the US natural gas consumption could average 76.7 Bcf per day in 2016 and 77.3 Bcf per day in 2017.
Crude Oil Prices Fall Again: Is the Production Freeze Worthless?
On March 24, 2016, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices fell for the second consecutive day to close at $39.46 per barrel, below the psychological level of $40.
How Did Junk Bond Yields Fare ahead of the FOMC Meeting?
Junk bond yields fell 18 basis points week-over-week and ended at 8.38% on March 11, 2016.
Why Is $26 a Crucial Psychological Support Level for Crude Oil?
WTI crude oil futures made lows of $26.55 and 26.21 as of January 20 and February 11, respectively, on a closing basis. After touching lows near $26, it rebounded.
What Factors Are Impacting Crude Oil?
The OPEC and non-OPEC deal and a weaker dollar helped crude oil prices rally in the last two weeks. However, crude may not be able to sustain its gains.
Fuel-Gauging the Middle East at the Dawn of 2016: A Story of Constraint
Middle East nations like Saudi Arabia and Iran are sensing the need to diversify their economies. Yet Saudi Arabia hasn’t yet signaled oil production cuts.
Saudi Arabia Plans to Stabilize and Diversify Its Economy
Saudi Arabia hasn’t recently signaled any production cuts. This simply points toward Saudi Arabia’s plan to grab more market share, even at lower cost.
Iran’s Strategic Plan to Regain Regional Leadership
Iranian oil is likely to hit the market when the latter is already oversupplied. This can affect the stocks that operate with a high production mix in oil.
Assessing the Geopolitical Tensions Surrounding the Kingdom
Saudi Arabia has led the Middle East as well as OPEC for more than a decade. But the kingdom is Sunni-dominated, and Shia influence has begun to grow.
Debt Fell for XOP Stocks with a Crude Oil Production Mix over 90%
The debt of XOP upstream companies operating with a production mix of crude oil greater than 90% fell by an average of 1% on a YoY (year-over-year) basis in 3Q15.
Sales Performance of XOP Companies by Production Mix
The sales of XOP upstream companies operating with a production mix of crude oil greater than 90% fell by 9% on a YoY (year-over-year) basis in 3Q15.
Low Crude Oil Prices Hurt XOP Stocks with a High Production Mix
Within the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), the stocks operating with a production mix of crude oil greater than 90% have fallen by 14.6% this month, as of January 9.
How Could Differences and Alternative Energy Sources Impact OPEC?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has become the battleground for two different nations—Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Why the Momentum in Crude Oil May Be Short Lived
February’s crude oil contract rose 4.6% in the seven days ended December 23. The major drivers of crude oil prices are falling crude oil inventories.
The Sales performance and Gross Profit of Refiners
In 3Q15, refiners Phillips 66, Valero Energy, Delek US, and Alon USA Energy posted contraction in sales of 7%, 5%, 4%, and 3%, respectively, on a YoY basis.
Downstream Companies Outperformed the Energy Sector
The change in the price of downstreams is negatively correlated to that of upstreams. Downstreams draw revenue from refining and marketing petroleum products.
OPEC’s Members Won’t Cut the Crude Oil Production
Crude oil near $40 isn’t economically feasible for US shale oil producers to extract and sell it in the market. OPEC doesn’t want to reduce the production.
Why XOP Is More Sensitive to Crude Oil than to Natural Gas
The weighted production mixes of crude oil and natural gas in the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) are about 32% and 39%, respectively.
The US Dollar Index Slips to 1-Month Lows
The US Dollar Index fell by nearly 1% as the basket of currencies that the US dollar is weighed against posted gains.
US Dollar Index and Iran’s Nuclear Accord: Key for Crude Oil
The US dollar appreciated against the basket of currencies in the early trade on June 29, 2015. The Greece default crisis supported the US dollar.
Crude Oil Prices Settle Almost 1 Month Lower ahead of the API Data
Crude oil stocks are expected to fall by 2.075 MMbbls for the week ending June 26, 2015. Distillates stocks are expected rise by 1.65 MMbbls.
Will the API and EIA Stockpile Reports Mirror Each Other?
Yesterday, the API reported that the crude oil stockpile fell by 3.2 MMbbls for the week ending June 19. It’s a precursor to Wednesday’s inventory report from the EIA.
Does Performance in Oil Stocks Correlate with Hedging Activity?
The US rig count fell by 40% compared to a year ago, but 9.6 million bpd were still pumped in the United States, the highest since 1970. Hedging by oil companies has helped.
Crude Oil Inventory Report: API Data and Market Surveys Conflict
The EIA will publish the weekly crude oil inventory report on Wednesday, June 3, 2015. Last week, the US commercial crude oil stockpile fell by 2.8 MMbbls.
Southwestern Energy’s earnings shine a light on important segment
Barring the two years of one-off non-cash impairment charges, SWN saw its profits grow steadily along with its revenues. Its earnings are up well over 200% between 2007 and 2013. That means SWN’s net profit margin has also remained steady near the ~20% level over the years.
The Baupost Group opens new position in SunEdison Semiconductor
The Baupost Group added a position in SunEdison Semiconductor (SEMI) that accounted for 1.14% of the fund’s total second quarter portfolio. SunEdison Semiconductor develops, manufactures, and sells silicon wafers to the semiconductor industry.
Why the Baupost Group starts new position in Theravance Biopharma
The Baupost Group added a position in Theravance Biopharma Inc. (TBPH) that accounted for 9.89% of the fund’s total second quarter portfolio. Theravance Biopharma was recently spun out of Theravance (THRX).
Why the Baupost Group adds new position in eBay
The Baupost Group added a stake in eBay Inc. (EBAY) that accounted for 3.62% of the fund’s total second quarter portfolio. eBay is a global technology company that enables commerce through three reportable segments—Marketplaces, Payments, and Enterprise.
Must-know: The Baupost Group’s 2Q14 positions
The size of the fund’s U.S. long portfolio increased 48% to $6.14 billion in the second quarter from $4.14 billion in the first quarter. The fund’s top positions include Micron Technology, Idenix Pharmaceuticals, and Viasat.