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The March jobs report should not change anyone’s views on the outlook for monetary policy.
What matters for stocks going forward is if earnings are growing faster than nominal rates. That’s happening. So, we still think the outlook for stocks is positive, albeit not as positive as it was when rates were low.
It is ironic that CBOE will launch futures on bitcoin (the currency) on Sunday of the very week that bitcoin (the blockchain) demonstrated how clearly it is broken.
Private non-farm payroll employment rose 190,000 in November following a gain of 235,000 in October.
If bitcoin is to be more than a bandwagon, it has to have utility as a medium of exchange or store of value.
Given the good economic data, loose credit conditions, benign inflation data, and investor sentiment, we think the risks of the Fed blowing an asset bubble are above average.