Correlation with US crude oil
On June 20–27, major energy ETFs had the following correlations with US crude oil active futures:
US crude oil active futures rose 4.1% in the trailing week, which might have supported or limited the downside in OIH, XOP, XLE, and AMLP. They have returned 0.9%, 0.2%, -1.1%, and -0.3%, respectively.
In the trailing week, AMLP, XOP, XLE, and OIH had correlations with natural gas active futures of 38.7%, -58.8%, -62.8%, and -87.2%, respectively. Natural gas active futures have risen 7.3%. Based on the correlations and returns, most of these energy ETFs might have moved inversely to natural gas prices.
Energy ETFs had the following correlations with the S&P 500 in the last week:
- AMLP: -78.3%
- XLE: -33.8%
- OIH: -19.5%
- XOP: -15.4%
The S&P 500 (SPY) fell 1% on June 20–27. Although these correlations suggest an inverse relationship, the broader market sentiments might have played a significant role in these energy ETFs’ slow movement despite oil’s gains. The broader market sentiments are usually more important to energy ETFs than the movement in oil prices.